- US ELECTION – BIDEN WIN GOOD FOR CANADA?
- PFIZER PRESIDENT SELLS 62 PERCENT OF HIS STOCK!
- QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS – COMMENTS
- QUICK QUESTION BUNDLE
- WINNERS AND LOSERS
- FLIPPER TO SELL NOW?
- BITCOIN YES OR NO?
- THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS – OCTOBER |
VANCOUVER, FRASER VALLEY ROCK
- BRIEF LOOK AT TORONTO – CALGARY – EDMONTON
- ALBERTA POPULATION GROWTH 2ND HIGHEST IN CANADA
- INFLATION, DEFLATION OR REFLATION – AGAIN
- BINGEWORTHY SHOWS – NEW BOOK RECOMMENDATION
- GET INTO CLARITY – BUY OZZIE’S OUTLOOK VIDEO AT LANDRUSHCANADA.COM AND HIS Update VIDEO: NOVEMBER 15 (see below)
OZZIE UPDATES HIS SPEECH
THIS WEEK (NOVEMBER 15) OUTLOOK 2021!
Plus get access to the 10 speaker Landrush conference from September 19 and update on October 15
AND INVEST IN THE VIDEO SITE
2020/2021 is shaping up to be a time of enormous turmoil, confusion, and uncertainty
COMMENTS AND QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS
Lots of comments and questions regarding the US election outcome. I mean lots. In a nutshell:
Trump almost did it. There is an outside chance that he still could win, but it is over.
- The best of all possible worlds – (not totally final yet either because of run off Senate elections in Georgia but 90% certainty) – the Senate will stay in republican hands. (McConnell will have the real power). There will be no tax hikes, no new taxes on capital gains. No great new green deal! A ‘my hands are tied’ government.
- Why is it important? It will make for a ‘lame duck’ president. That is why the stock market loved it…
- The far left got crushed – (my biggest fear was the ‘take no prisoners’ polarization of right and left.) The Democrats (mostly its far left) lost half of its majority in the house.
- Donald Trump was supposed to be this evil guy. But 72 million Americans voted for him! 8 million more than in 2016! Americans held their nose and agreed with Trump’s stance against socialism and other things.
- Biden health is in question – get ready for Kamila Ms. President
- Donald Trump will be back…he will be the same age as Biden is today in 2024.
Bad or Good for Canada:
- Obama cancelled Keystone. Biden was the VP. He will crush the pipeline deal again. ALL pipelines. Bad for Alberta and Canada oil.
- Biden also hates fracking and all ‘bad energy’. GOOD for Alberta Oil. It will be in higher demand from the US!
- Trump made US self sufficient in energy, Biden will stop all subsidies etc., etc. GOOD – see above.
- Biden will keep and promote “America first”, BAD for Canada.
- Biden will be stuck fighting with his far left and its loss of half the majority in the house (and with it out with Pelosi) …His 2 trillion energy plans will suck wind…so GOOD.
Major Point: We will survive all governments, as a people, as a province and as Canada. This outcome likely favours us. But our future is in our hands…we need to be productive, innovative, and resourceful. We were more engaged in the US election then our own elections…why? We do business with 36 US states.
BITCOIN AND GOLD
Q: You talk about 150-year bonds (Ed.Note: Or perpetual bonds ), you advised the watch /read Raul Pal (Bitcoin / gold guru), but you don’t advise…or are not clear…buy or not buy?
A: Actually, I do not “advise” anything. I m just sharing my opinion of our world as I see it. I did venture that in my view the US dollar will remain the reserve currency for 2021 at least. What happens after, is anyone’s guess. My view – not advice!
Will crypto currency replace dollars? Me: No
Bitcoin and gold rules. Me? No (They will play a role, but rule? No)
But governments will attempt to have digital currencies to keep track of all of us and tax everything? YES! Well, they will TAX everything with digital and without…and it is already in mainstream media: (see below Ms. Lagarde)
Bitcoin is totally safe? Me: No.
The US government seized 1 billion (story Nov. 5): https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/11/feds-seize-1-billion-in-bitcoin-from-silk-road-drug-marketplace/
Famed advisor Martin Armstrong put it this way on his blog:
“As I have stressed, Bitcoin is an extremely trackable method of exchange. It offers no real security that the market people have claimed. The U.S. was able to track down those funds through a unit within the IRS that specializes in tracing virtual currency transactions. The IRS agents were able to identify 54 new bitcoin transactions executed by the Silk Road, which appear to be the proceeds of some of that illegal activity. The agency was then able to trace that money to a specific bitcoin address that appeared to have hacked the bitcoin funds from the Silk Road. In a federal court, they do not even need to trace every bitcoin. They trace a small sample and then claim everything is a fraud.”
All other question on gold and bitcoin – particularly do you own any? I already answered that earlier this year… when I raised some hackles daring to talk about jewelry. Ha-ha. I do not. But I may change my mind… These are crazy times.
Remember this is free opinion.
You can always try and get accepted into my “inner circle” (not free and currently fully subscribed).
Q: (Again)To the person that asked about why you should feature 4 years of statistics side by side, I say duh! This way you can see how Oz comes up with his remarkable forecasts!
A: Blush and yes!
Quite a few people (9) took a stand on the “People don’t do what you expect” (4 agreed, 5 did not). I stick by it. Humans need accountability…And we forgive ourselves so easily.
Comment: Ozzie, you called it at Landrush 2016! Also, a 4-day week, VR etc.
A: Yes, and several times since. “Christine Lagarde (IMF) said last week – she believes the region’s monetary authority will move to launch a digital version of the euro in the next two to four years.”
Cannot make it anymore official than that.
But first ‘we the people’ need to be trained to believe, and then we need to learn to accept and nod…and then nothing we buy- or sell -or profit – or earn – or send to someone and donate….nothing! All will be known to the government. And taxable.
Who will be hurt the most by all that digital money and no cash allowed? Imagine you have a 5-dollar bill…and no one will accept it. Not even for a hamburger. Thousands without bank accounts, credit cards…you get the point?
Govern yourself accordingly (Ozbuzz 14 and Jurock’s Real Estate Insider 2017 (8))
Tons of deflation, inflation reflation questions…You – YouTube watchers- you!
Review Ozbuzz 39 – 49
Q: You say a flipper must be in and out of the market in 60 days? The market is hotter than a firecracker, why get out early?
A: 1. It depends on what you buy and where…and 2. your expectation. A flipper or shark – (from my various books) buys into a trend. Not hold and gain, or tenant will pay mortgage. A flipper dive in rising market and gets out before it – inevitable – settles in.
3. If you are in a downtown condo as a flipper – you would sell! Listings are rising, rents are falling in all big downtowns. People are moving out. Toronto new listings are up 100%…so a flipper is out. An investor could not care less, he gets his income having selected the tenant carefully and inspects him (with respect). He will simply be fine in the long term-leverage on his side building equity.
Major Point: What I said was: “As a flipper, (if you are in and out of the market in a 60-day turnaround…now is the time. Either way it is a gamble.”
Alberta Population Growth second only to PEI!
Despite an economy that has been buffeted by challenge after challenge since the oil price crash that triggered the recession of 2015-16, Alberta’s population has continued to grow, outpacing the national average four times in the last six years.*
The latest numbers show that Alberta added 60,182 residents between July 2019 and July 2020 for a growth rate of 1.4 per cent. Canada, meanwhile, grew by 522,103 people or 1.1 per cent.
Alberta’s strong growth vis-à-vis other parts of the country is largely a function of its relatively younger population and, in turn, higher birth rate.
The higher growth during this period was due to strong net migration from other parts of the country as people flocked to Alberta for jobs.
With population growth comes additional economic activity, so the growth in Alberta between mid-2019 and mid-2020 is a welcome sign. *Statistics Canada’s official annual population estimates are as of July 1 of each year.
QUICK QUESTION BUNDLE…
- Are you against investors buying condos? NO! Just not downtown while people are moving out. Buy the Valley, buy only Transit oriented developments (TODs). Sky train etc. (Along the new line to Langley?)
- Trump will win recount. NO! Technically the electoral college vote on December 14 could decide. But no.
- The vaccine announcement means troubles are over, back to normal. No! Solvency crisis (we discussed) worsening. Also listen to this eyebrow raiser: Pfizer announced Vaccine Monday, INSIDERS sell! Pfizer president sells 62 percent of his stock Tuesday…
- Some currencies are near collapse. Should we buy in those countries? NO! For instance: Turkish lira is toast, its reserves have collapsed. Turkish inflation (evaluated to be 37 percent- officially 11 percent). Don’t buy real estate in a country with an unstable currency. Currency will collapse further. Rule: No stable currency – stay out.
- The US dollar will lose reserve status. What currency would you suggest? NO! It will remain the reserve currency for the world for years to come. Use dollar and swiss francs for safety – any other is speculation.
- In your Landrush speech you mentioned a new form of advertising. You said Twitter. Really? YES! Think about it, when you put any tweet out you go DIRECTLY to anyone really interested in your product or service. Read about it here:
- Polling is dead? Yes! We wrote about it in 2016 – The BRANDNEW way to assess market conditions and people sentiments? Text mining. New programs evaluate trending tweets against 8 day and 30-day averages (like stocks) positive or negative. Sentiment is new concept. Study it!
- Still a scary time for just winging it. YES!
- Inflation and deflation can happen at the same time…financial inflation in hard assets, economic deflation in commodity. YES! IT is happening right now. Food prices ae soaring.
- Don’t agree with your statement: “Oil will go lower, not because of Saudi Arabia but because we drive less.”. OK, you are entitled! I would buy gas.
- Like and agree with your item to people on the ‘dark side’ and mudding through. Thanks!
MAJOR, MAJOR POINT
Q: I love Alizee and that version. I also now know where you got your love of bubble baths from! I have looked for your DJAY stylings but cannot find.
A: Ha-ha, yes, she sings about loving to be in a bubble bath in French! Yes, its an older song…but you did love the song! I mean really the song?
Someone wrote a bit about watching her VIDEO when his wife asked: ‘Who is the singer?’ I said: What, she is singing?
BINGEWORTHY SHOWS – OLDIES:
Ok…I give you another one: “Dexter” … Ok, not everyone’s cup of tea. If you have access to American Netflix (thru your VPN?) go back and see it.
Several people liked RITA, WESTWING – one did not like BEHZAT C.
BOOKS OF THE WEEK COMMENTS
Comment: Amazingly I never heard of Peterson. I googled him and now am a YouTube fan of his. What a great Thinker! Thanks…
Q: The “The Strange Death of Europe” blew me away. Found myself nodding all the time. However, you are brave to feature these kinds of books!
A: These kind of books?
BOOKS OF THE WEEK
This week we recommend: Douglas Murray more recent book: ‘The madness of crowds’.
‘Simply brilliant. Reading it to the end, I felt as though I had just drawn my first full breath in years. At a moment of collective madness, there is nothing more refreshing–or, indeed, provocative—than sanity. ‘- Sam Harris, author of five New York Times bestsellers.
‘Murray cuts through the doubt-sowing incoherence of social-justice babble to say — eloquently — what 95 per cent of us believe, but have been made fearful to say aloud. Read it.’ – Barbara Kay, National Post.
From the silly to the tragic, Murray covers the range of identititarian pathology without ever losing his.
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS VANCOUVER AND FRASER VALLEY – OCTOBER 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017
TORONTO Sales and new listings reached record levels for the month of October. However, in the detached market segment, the pace of annual sales growth far outstripped growth in new listings. Conversely, the condominium apartment market segment experienced more than double the new listings compared to October 2019, whereas sales were only up by 2.2 per cent over the same period.
Vancouver was up 35% over the 10-year September average. The 2nd most sales. A RECORD for October! Note: New listings increased by 37%.
Major Point 1: As we keep pointing out:
a) SF and TH markets are separating from the condo market. Condo sales increase are shrinking (everywhere!).
b) Condo listings are rising (everywhere!)
c) Sales on TH and SF: Hot! Condo sales? Not!
d) Active listings decline in SF sector, rising in Condo sector.
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS VANCOUVER AND CITY OF SURREY COMBINED — OCTOBER 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017
Between June and October, the real estate market in Canada and parts of the US have been in a dramatic turnaround.
Surrey condo listings are not rising as fast as elsewhere, condo prices are up a strong 8% (Vancouver condos only up by 4%)
Major Point 2: As last month … the madness of the market in some area concerns me … too much – too fast. Solvency crisis around the corner. Retailers/restaurants crashing like crazy.
Needless to say, when you look at averages in the Fraser Valley you look from Surrey to Langley White Rock to Cloverdale. Always drill into the numbers of the area YOU want to be in.
Major Point 3: Concert Property chief said at an UDI zoom meeting that in his company they saw condo rental collections decline to 78% in Toronto, but collections were stable in the high nineties’ percentile in Vancouver.
INFLATION, DEFLATION OR REFLATION
My 1.5 hour speech on the outlook of real estate worldwide and the above terms…is best listened to on landrushcanada.com/video – where ten ace speakers fine tuned their forecasting aim (Phoenix going to be up 40% and what will happen after the election?) I will also update my speech from September 19 on October 15 and on November 15, 2020 …and no, its not free…go to landrushcanada.com and buy the whole day of speeches.
NEXT WEEK WE WILL DO A SURVEY!
PLEASE PARTICPATE…LET US KNOW WHAT YOU LIKE or wish to see improved
In PODCASTS, OzBUZZ BLOG (ozbuzz.ca) AND YOUTUBE (youtube.com/jurockvideo)
LIVE LIFE LARGE
Look after your body…
If you do not, where are you going to live”?
However, that spells opportunity! Ozzie Jurock & his 9 ace expert speakers will help you adjust your ‘money making sails’ to steer a course to profit amongst treacherous real estate waters. Find out where to make money in 2020/2021 and more importantly where not to lose any. What to buy and what real estate to run away from – fast!
10 Ace speakers
Ozzie Jurock: Virus, Inflation or deflation or reflation? the new trends, cash or gold, real estate worldwide?
Remarkable annual forecasts and predictions. Ozzie presents the 2020 battle of fear, confidence, and the relationship between the two. Your one stop shops into clarity! The crucial next 3 months!
Todd Smith: Phoenix, hotter than a firecracker. Prices will rise 40%!
Rick Hoogendoorn: The volatile and soaring Victoria market. Will it continue and why…?
Kyle Green: The incredible world of low, low rates… pre-approve now or wait. How to get 1.3% mortgage.
Rudy Nielsen: “Buy a ranch a farm, your waterfront lot. The greatest Canadian ‘out of town’ expert makes a remarkable forecast.
Justin Smith: “Commercial Real estate could be the best niche… Pitfalls and fine opportunities”
Brent Roberts: The Fraser valley is up 75% is sales and 15% in Single family home prices. Ace Realtor tells it from the trenches.
Ralph Case: In these times, it is not enough to want to buy. You must have a precise plan.
James Knull: “Focus on Security: Cashflow Investing in a Covid World”
Pete Ryznar of Ryznar Media: “A sharp look at current presale offerings and what you must know before you buy.”
2020/2021 is shaping up to be a time of enormous turmoil, confusion, and uncertainty!
Buy the full day 10 speaker online video here
get an Ozzie VIDEO election update and forecast video (condo listings rising) on November 15, 2020 – included!
2020/2021 is shaping up to be a time of enormous turmoil, confusion, and uncertainty!
WANT TO PARTICIPATE?
Go to www.realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory at www.bcred.ca.
OZZIE’S YOUTUBE CHANNEL
You can watch all videos and podcasts on my YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/jurockvideo. It is a great way to check on what I said 10 years ago.
Ozzie is on air with Michael Campbell on the fabulous MONEYTALKS every Saturday sometime between 8:30AM – 10 AM. The radio station is CKNW and the best way to listen to it is WHEREEVER YOU ARE IN THE WORLD, just visit www.cknw.com at 8:30 am every Saturday (PST), click on live and you’re good to go. The Hot Property that we discuss there, is available by subscribing to the Oz Buzz Dispatch at Jurock.com
Why subscribe if I can just go to the website at Ozbuzz.ca? Hot properties and the latest podcasts are DISTRIBUTED TO SUBSCRIBERS FIRST– posted 2 weeks later on website.
HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?
You can reach me at firstname.lastname@example.org with all of your questions, comments and concerns regarding the Oz Buzz publication.