JUROCK’S Facts by Fax
Jurock Publishing Ltd. #200-1311 Howe Street, Vancouver, B.C. V6Z 2P3 Tel: (604) 464-0808/Fax (604) 683-1707/E-Mail: ozzie@jurock.comWorld Wide Web: http://www.jurock.com/
=========================================================
Reproduction without permission strictly prohibited
December 06/1996 – December 12/1996
lesson to be learned. Do not have sex with the authorities” Matt Groening
THERE IS NO ROOM AT THE INN… Or in a Vancouver apartment. CMHC released its excellent vacancy rate
survey (Nov. 28/1996) and it shows that Vancouver’s apartment vacancy rate
dropped from 1.4% to 1.1%! Rents rose on average by 3%. Even though many
tenants chose to buy, apartment vacancy rates in Vancouver are still very
tight. Said Ray Toscani, market analyst for CMHC: …high cost of new
construction and relatively low return on rental product has slowed
construction of new rental accommodation to a trickle. The three bedroom
plus category is particularly tight with a rate of .07%.
Surrey clocks in at 3.7% (bachelors 6.1%!), New Westminster at 2.7%,
Langley at 3.2% (8.8% for bachelor accommodation and 5.2% for one bedroom
space!). But you have to go out of town for the real tough numbers:
Abbotsford shows an overall rate of 6% (down from 7.5% last year),
Chilliwack is up from 9.1% to 10.8%, Nanaimo is up from 5.15 to 7 %,
Cranbrook shot up from 3.7% to 10.8%, Duncan from 8.4% to 11%, but the
worst performer was Courtenay moving from 9.4% to 13.2% vacancy. (In the
two bedroom class Courtenay has a surprising 15.9% vacancy rate). The best
rate? Squamish clocking in at 0.5%. Call top CMHC market analyst Helmut
Pastrick for your own copy at 666-2925 .A QUIET REVOLUTION
A small crowd gathered the other night at Peter Newman’s home ( a showpiece
of what can be done to a stately older home, if you have style, a sense of
presence and imagination). The occasion? To watch the TV special created
around Newman’s excellent book “The Canadian Revolution.” A hard-hitting,
fast-paced show, it captured the essence of the book. Said Newman:” A
Canadian Revolution may sound like an oxymoron, like Jumbo Shrimp.” But
it’s clear, while we may draw guns and man the barricades, we are defiant
just the same.” With trust in our institutions shaken, a deep suspicion of
all ‘things Government’ and an urgent need for honest facts, the revolution
of the last 10 years may yet pave the way for a better future. If you
haven’t seen the special, watch for the re-run, if you haven’t read the
book (first recommended here a year ago) do it now.
VOLUME UP, PRICES DOWN…or THE NEW SMART CONSUMER TAKES ADVANTAGE
The first time buyers have come out in droves, really taking advantage of
the combination of low rates, the Home Buyers Plan, its RRSP options and
lower prices. The Vancouver Real Estate Board reports that sales showed “a healthy increase of 56% from a year ago.” Indeed, it was a solid month
in terms of number of units sold. The board also reported that median
prices are up in New Westminster ( from $229,000 to $255,000 up by 12%) and
North Vancouver ( from $336,000 to $352,000) but down in Richmond (-11%),
West Vancouver, the Westside (from $688,000 to $630,000) and Coquitlam.
Really down however are the average prices:
Vancouver: Current Month (November)
This Year Last Year %change
Units Sold 2,794 1,752 +56% Avg. Price $266,600 $305,600 -12%
Active Listings 17,400 15,500 -11%
Vancouver: (Year to date)
This Year Last Year %change
Units Sold 19,990 16,600 +20% Avg. Price $293,600 $311,300 -05%
While overall volume is sharply higher, November 1992 was still better at
2,990 units sold. But this month is coming closer than any other to the
record of 1992. The average price for a ‘new detached home’ fell by 20%
from $612,000 to $483,800, a ‘re-sale detached’ home fell by 13% from
$410,600 to $354,900. Prices for ‘new townhomes’ fell by 2% to $237,300,
‘re-sale townhomes fell by 10% from $227,500 to $211,800 and prices for
‘new condominiums’ stayed even at $173,000 with ‘resale condominiums’
increasing in price by 4% to $166,000 from $158,000. The overall average
price is now down from its peak in 1995 ($349,000) by some 24%. They are
down, but let us not r read too much into these numbers. The action is
clearly at the lower price range. As fewer homes sell at the upper end, the
average price falls sharply lower – not reflecting a collapse in prices,
but simply more transactions at the lower end. Prices are down, but it is
not the end of the world. As reported last month, the upper end remains
sluggish, with many buyers adopting a -wait and see- and -a prove it to me
– attitude.
THE VALLEY REPORTS MORE OF THE SAME
The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board reports sales up by 45% over November
1995 as well. Interestingly, the more important ‘year-to-date’ number for
single family homes showed a strong 32% increase with condominiums and
townhomes clocking in 24% higher. 62% of all sales came in under $250,000,
Fraser Valley: Current Month (November) This Year Last Year %change
Units Sold 1,508 1,040 + 45%
Avg. Price $241,000 $233,000 – 03% Active Listings n/a n/a
White Rock shows a price decline of 6.8% in its average price (from
$345,000 to $320,000), North Delta shows an increase of 8.7%, with all the
areas in the Fraser Valley overall showing an overall price decline of 3.2%
…AND ACROSS THE POND…MORE…
The Victoria Real Estate Board reports also a strong 35% increase in sales,
going from 452 units sold last November to 688 units this year. 62% of all
single family homes sold were in the $160,000 to $240,000 price range. The
average price also fell sharply to $228,000 from $245,000 last year. Said
Ace Realtor Neil Rawnsley of Royal Lepage (250-477-7121): ” The first time
buyers market is continuing to heat up. There is no end in sight.” The
condominium average price dropped from $141,000 to $132,000. The buyer
remains king.
Victoria: Current Month (November)
This Year Last Year %change
Units Sold 688 333 +35% Avg. Price $245,000 $228,000 -07%
Active Listings 3,700 3,900 -05%
Major point: The buyers market is continuing throughout B.C. Although sales
are increasing sharply, we are still not back to the level of sales reached
in 1992 (but we’re getting there). Driven by a new persistent and finicky
buyer however, prices are softening. We expect this low interest rate
flurry to continue and slowly work itself up into the higher ranges. But
for the real estate investor there are still better prices ahead.
TORONTO RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE TO RISE BY 20%
We called Toronto a buy a year ago. Our December lead story in this month
JREI newsletter analyzes all markets from Halton Hills to Oshawa and
arrives at the inescapable conclusion: not all, but most areas in Toronto
are heading higher. JREI forecats prices to rise by 20% in the next 18 months.
MAN WITH A MISSION IN MISSION
Long term Ace Realtor Chris Herbert of Homelife Glenayre Realty
(604-826-2699) wonders why not everybody moves to Mission now. After all,
there is the Westcoast express, the population is growing at a strong 4.3%
clip and the place is hopping at the rezoning/permit stage. The most
important developments (all under construction or finished) says Herbert,
are the new 150,000 sq.ft. University of the Fraser Valley
College/Highschool, a 702 seat performing Arts theater, a new International
bag plant (200,000 sq. feet) , a Best Western Motel and Restaurant. In
addition, at the application stage there is a 64,00 sq. foot commercial
space and 18 hole Golfcourse development, a 382,000 sq. ft. commercial
shopping centre, a 101,000 sq. ft. Real Super Store (!), a softball and RV
Park all awaiting permits. There also 4 multi family developments under way
totaling 189 units and a 275 lot subdivision. When you add to this the
College heights and Cherry Ridge Neighborhoods already developed with homes
being built today, there are things going on in Mission.
WHERE WE DISCUSS A DISCUSSION UBC’S Real Estate Outlook conference is being held December 5/1996. For a
synopsis of forecasts listen to your Hotline.
Subscribers’ Plots of the Week: 1. Vancouver, the Puccini Building, 8,200
sq.feet, reduced by $100,000 to Price: $595,000; 2. Vancouver, 48,072
square feet industrial site, 19,000 sq.ft. Wood frame and concrete block
warehouse, $32.24 per square foot of land or $6.45 per buildable square
foot; 3. Williams Lake, 160 acres, logged, stream, Price: $39,000; 4.
Kelowna, A multi-family site which consists of 28 units of 25 two bedrooms
and 3 one bedrooms, Price: $395,000.00. Call Liesl or Lin at 464-0808 (All
SPOW’s are for you to evaluate, just look interesting to us. No guarantees).
RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE RATES: Interest rates in the UK. are heading up, get
that pre-approval now. Lending officers are run of their feet. First
they’ll deal with new business, then with re-writes and finally with
pre-approval. Don’t be sorry later, do it now.
Best rates 6 mos. 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 4 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr High Ratio 4.85 4.80 5.35 5.60 6.00 6.15 7.14 7.69 Conventional 4.85 4.80 5.10 5.60 6.00 6.15 7.14 7.89
Mortgage rates based on a weekly survey of 65 major financial institutions.
The lowest rate posted may be conditional to the borrower meeting certain
requirements and conditions. For Lower Mainland rates try: Nova Financial
Services (John Ribalkin or Jaeson Robinson direct tel: 251-6682); The
Mortgage Source (Rick Robertson cell: 377-6985/toll-free 1-800-465-6275);
Canada Trust (Brad Currie (604-816-5198).To subscribe to Jurock’s Facts by
Fax ($125 per annum) call 683-1111/464-0808 OR fax 683-1707. While the
above information is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, its
accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any type of investing carries inherent
risks; as such we cannot assume responsibility for any subscriber’s actions
or choice of investment.
Leave A Comment