IN THIS WEEK’S FACTS BY EMAIL:
- QUESTIONS, QUESTION
- THE NUMBERS TIL AUGUST 14 – CRASH IN SALES
- IDEAS TO MINIMIZE TAX OR BENEFIT FROM THE OPPORTUNITY
- HOT PROPERTIES
- THE GRAND SURVEY
Questions, Questions, Comments
Comment: Lots of comments on Clint Eastwood and political correctness, on last week’s initial sales stats for Fraser Valley and the North Shore and on the numbers in general. (Surrey up 51%!) Today’s update is even more astounding. Time will tell.
Q: Your piece on Canada’s economy and latest results blew me away. Why isn’t this in the general media?
A: It is and it was. But, not front page. I just provided a summary and shared my concern.
Fallout From The Tax – So Far
Tammy Sharp, North Shore Realtor: “The sudden implementation of the foreign buyer tax, combined with continual negative media attention, has left buyers and sellers with general feelings of fear and uncertainty. This fear of the unknown has generated a self-fulfilling prophecy of a market slowdown as buyers and sellers choose to hold off on any activity, and instead the choice is to ‘wait and see’ what is going to happen next. This has resulted in a sudden dampening effect on the North Shore market.” Email: firstname.lastname@example.org.
Analytics Inc. says there were 2,300 units sold at a value of over $1.25 billion to foreign buyers … that could be at risk (of non-completion).
Re/Max reports 45 sales not completing so far.
Re/Max VP Elton Ash: “The tax has chilled the market and virtually NO BUSINESS IS BEING DONE.”
Ms. Liu Fei, Chinese envoy in BC asks: “Why a 15% tax? Why now? Why this rate? What’s the purpose? Will it work? I am not sure that even a 50% tax would solve Vancouver’s affordability problem.”
The Numbers – Up To Date – Yep There Is A Sales Crash!
Clearly the North Shore numbers bear out the comments by the RE/Max VP.
Look at these crunch in sales: (Provided by top North Shore realtor Tammy Sharp)
August 1 – 14:
- Greater Vancouver Single Family Home Sales
- 2016 = 95 –83%!
- 2015 = 565
- Greater Vancouver Condo Sales
- 2016 = 205 -71%!
- 2015 = 701
- North Vancouver Condo Sales
- 2016 = 14 -68%
- 2015 = 43
- West Vancouver Condo Sales
- 2016 = 3
- 2015 = 7
- North Vancouver Single Family Home Sales
- 2016 = 12
- 2015 = 47
- West Vancouver Single Family Home Sales
- 2016 = 3 -95%
- 2015 = 51
Major Point: PLEASE NOTE: WHILE THESE ARE ACCURATE NUMBERS, THESE ARE EARLY NUMBERS THAT LIKELY WILL BE ADJUSTED UPWARD. OFTEN A DEAL WRITTEN IS NOT POSTED UNTIL A FEW DAYS LATER. WE WILL KEEP YOU POSTED. LIKELY, THE MONTH END NUMBERS WILL TELL THE FACTS.
Ideas To Minimize The New 15% Tax Or Look For Opportunity
- Buy a lot. Pay tax on the lot. Build a new house. (You don’t pay the tax on the house.)
Saving on speculation tax and transfer tax will help pay tax on land.
- Go to assignments on craigslist.com and see what’s being offered. There were 79 listings as of last Saturday looking to assign their contract on a pre-sale. There may be many looking for a profit, but there may be some that just want to get out of their deal!
If you have other ideas tips…share and we feature you here.
Eyebrow Raiser – Central Banks And Tragic Conclusions?
Michael Campbell writes that worldwide Central banks cut interest rates 666 times in the last few years. (Devil’s number?) Also, he wrote in his blog: “Recently the central bank of Switzerland bought 3,300,000 shares of Apple and Mario Draghi said they will do ANYTHING to save the economy and financial markets. Skilled investors like Soros, Gross, Ichan & Druckenmiller are saying they don’t like the underlying implications of the Banks actions at all, and are positioning their portfolios for a tragic conclusion.
(Go to moneytalks.net to read more.)
International Retirement Living
From “International Living postcards”
The International Living company rates its top 10 retirement living countries. You will notice that our top recommendations from 2014 and 2015 are also here (Spain, Portugal, Thailand) but others are rated higher. Here are their top ten in descending order. (Excerpts from their special report – for more details go to their website above):
One of the smallest countries in Europe, Portugal is one of Europe’s best-kept secrets. Many fall in love with this little country due to its near flawless weather, abundance of golf and water sports, and superb fresh food. The relatively low cost of living is also a big draw for those who choose to live in Portugal.
A two-bedroom house on The Silver Coast can be bought for $96,000, while the same price could get you a three-bedroom house with a yard among the olive groves and vineyards of Alentejo. Rental properties vary in price from $190 to $918 per month depending on where you are in the country. In cosmopolitan Lisbon expect to pay on average $900 for a one-bedroom property, while in the small town of Estremoz $200 will get you a two-bedroom home. Living in Portugal is relatively affordable compared to its European counterparts. Utilities usually run from between $110 and $150 a month including water and garbage. You can still get a coffee for 75 cents and a three-course meal at lunchtime, often with a carafe of table wine, will cost around $12. Romance, culture, and adventure awaits you in your ideal spot in Portugal.
ED. NOTE: We ranked it higher in our forecast because if you buy real estate here you can become a ‘landed immigrant’ instantly and a citizen within 5 years. Look at your OUTLOOK report.
Beaches…mountains…fabulous cities…cracking festivals, and, of course, guaranteed sunshine. It’s not surprising that Spain is the most popular country for Europeans seeking a home overseas. Many retirees flock to southern Spain’s beach towns. The Costa Blanca and Costa del Sol have large expat communities—and English-speaking services that cater to them. Northern Spain is famous for the pilgrim route, the Camino de Santiago, as well as being one of Ernest Hemmingway’s favorite European haunts. This part of Spain has a lot to offer—the stunning Pyrenees, the beaches of the Basque country, bull running in Pamplona, and a quality and cost of living that is near impossible to beat. This is also Spain’s wine country, so if you enjoy the odd tipple, you’ll be in heaven here.
ED. NOTE: We ranked it higher because if you buy real estate here you can become a ‘landed immigrant’ instantly and a citizen within 5 years. Look at your OUTLOOK report. THE ‘GOLDEN VISA’ – WE THINK IS AN INCREDIBLE ADDED BENEFIT!
Nicaragua is one of the most beautiful countries in the Americas. Nicaragua is virtually unknown—and usually misunderstood—by most people, which is why forward-thinking, international investors can find some of the best real estate deals on earth in this country. Not only is it physically beautiful, but the country offers you the “best bang for your buck.” Depending on where you want to live, you can still find lots for $3,000 and up. Of course established towns and beach areas will cost more.
Thailand has a lot of options. Some foreign retirees choose to live in the hubbub atmosphere of Bangkok. Some live in the north of Thailand where life is quiet, peaceful, and very inexpensive. Others choose the south for its beautiful beaches. Living in Thailand is unbelievably cheap. There are many places where you can dine well and still leave the table with change from $5. In fact, go north, and you’ll also find that 20-baht noodle stalls still exist—that’s just 60 cents! You can rent a really nice place just about anywhere in the country for just $500 a month. We know of one expat who pays $222 a month for his beachside bungalow with air conditioning, hot water, and Wi-Fi. A full check-up in a modern hospital by an American-trained doctor will cost you less than $40.
- #6: Colombia
- #5: Malaysia
- #4: Costa Rica
- #3: Mexico
- #2: Ecuador
And the winner is…PANAMA. (According to this special report by International living):
When it comes to attractive retirement destinations, Panama is at the top of our list. It’s the only country in Central America with a true First World city. But unlike most South American capitals, Panama City is only two-and a-half hours by plane from Miami. (And let’s not forget that, unlike some places closer to the U.S. border, Panama is hurricane free). All of these things combined, make Panama the 2016 Annual Global Retirement Index winner.
Major Point: To check out more info provided go to … www.internationalliving.com and get their fine report. For ourselves we preferred Spain, Portugal, Thailand and Malta – for their large expat populations and we believe the Golden Visa – even if not used – gives you access not only to the country you choose but all the countries in Europe much like a green card from the US.
Astounding Prediction. The Future Is…?
Much has been said about Virtual Reality (VR). I forecast its coming 3 years ago, made it part of our 8 Astounding Predictions at every event and at the last SUMMIT CONFERENCE meeting last June we had the VR people here from Calgary who floored everyone that wore the VR glasses…
Well, I’m here to tell you that Google glass and Oculus Rift with Samsung glasses and even the involvement of Facebook is now a fact. The future is here! Now: Bring in AUGMENTED REALITY (AR). (Google glass) will actually let you live your normal life but augment it with occasional planned VR.
I.e. kids are playing basketball, when (for a very long time to them) a huge whale appears and seems to rise out of the floor and splashes back into the Gym/Ocean. The applications – both good and bad – are endless. Watch for it: The future is AUGMENTED REALITY (AR).
Ok, ok, not a real estate book. The Autobiography of a Yogi (liked by Steve Jobs) has been around for a very long time. I sat down this week on a beach on Thormanby Island, read it again with peace in my mind. I highly recommend it. Take a deep breath and dive into the world of searching for truth and self-realization. With humour and heart.
1. 12 acres on a paved road, with power, gas, phone in 150 Mile House. With a small pond. You can build, park your RV or just hold. All the services and easy to reach winter and summer. Price: $89,000;
2. Rancher in Agassiz, 1240 sqft on a big lot close to all amenities and good investment or weekend retreat. Will rent for $1500 +. Price: $349,000;
3. Harrison Hot Springs, last big 1/2-acre lot, possible duplex or two houses. Price: $250,000.00. Subdivision possibility…
WE RESERVE THE RIGHT to accept or not to accept a specific deal. What makes it a deal? We look for: Low down payments, special discount, and owner carries mortgage, etc. Also note…we do not vet any deal, we just think it may be of interest. You MUST do your own due diligence. Please get contact info from your password-protected website or e-mail Max at email@example.com … and read the disclaimer!
To all who participated: THANK YOU VERY MUCH! We always want to improve the quality of our newsletter and we can only do that with your help.
For some reason we left out the “Question, question” section, but did have a lot of responses under ‘responses’. All positive. Over the next 2 weeks you will see many of YOUR suggestions incorporated (some re-incorporated) into our publication.
Winner of the Ozzie’s new book:
- Ziggy Binder
- Karen Mulligan
Here is the summary of responses for your information:
Q1 Do you submit your own deals to the ‘Ozzie Insider’s Deals’ section for other subscribers to see?
Q2 Do you know how to upload a deal?
Q3 Do you know how to upload photos with your deal?
Q4 Did you know that the Hot Properties Ozzie discusses on CKNW radio on Saturday Mornings are on your website 3-7 days earlier?
Q5 How do you read the Facts by Email every week?
|6%||The Web version|
|81%||The Email/Fax version|
Q6 If there was no web version would that bother you?
Q7 Would you still subscribe?
Q8 Would your answer be different if there was no website version but a lower price?
Q9 Web Version: Do you like:
|The deal section available at no charge to all subscribers?||80%||6%||14%|
|Would you like to see the deals only once a week in the body of the Facts by Email?||49%||14%||37%|
|The search function?||58%||9%||33%|
|The 7 mortgage calculators?||61%||11%||28%|
|The daily worldwide real estate news feed?||69%||7%||25%|
|The BCRED.ca BC Real Estate Directory?||49%||14%||37%|
Q10 Would you like to see a short video version attached to the weekly Facts by E-mail instead of the Hotline?
Q11 Would you take the time to open and watch it?
Q12 Do you know:
|The BCRED.ca directory is free for any real estate-oriented business subscriber (basic listing)?||22%||78%|
|That you could be featured as an expert on www.askanexpert.ca site – where subscribes receive preferential treatment?||14%||86%|
Q13 Would you like the following breakdown easier for reading:
|a) International/US (only news on world events that could influence rates or real estate values)||90%||10%|
|c) Western Canada||96%||4%|
|d) Plots of the week||88%||12%|
|e) Best mortgage rates||86%||14%|
Q14 Which of the following would you like to see in the Facts by Email?
|The eyebrow raiser of the week?||93%||7%|
|Hands on info on such as ‘How to’ (tips on Property Management, buying, selling, financing, etc.)||91%||9%|
|Ozzie’s Weekly Thoughts (whimsical, motivational)||94%||6%|
Q15 Are you listening to Ozzie’s Hotline every week?
Q16 Do you find the Hotline interesting?
Q17 What else would you like Ozzie to talk about weekly?
We have gathered lots of your great suggestions and will be going over potential changes!
Q18 Do you like Ozzie’s videos?
Q19 Would you rather have the video than the Hotline?
Q20 Are you on our Text Alert system to get texts when the Hotline is updated?
Q21 Do you attend the deeply discounted (for subscribers) Real Estate Outlook (Fall) and Landrush (Spring) conferences?
Q22 Did you know Landrush and Outlook conferences are either included or available at a discount for subscribers?
Q23 Are you aware that you could sponsor a booth at a Jurock Real Estate Insider conference with a $500 discount (to display your services or product)?
Q24 What type of information are you seeking at Jurock.com?
|REAL ESTATE ONLY||77%|
Q25 Are you getting what you expected?
Q26 As a loyal subscriber, what would you like to see as a renewal bonus?
|Landrush or Outlook conference CD Set||28%|
|Ozzie’s latest book||16%|
|A reduction in price||56%|
Q31 Any and all other suggestions/thoughts are welcome:
(We broke them up into ‘kudos’ and ‘suggestions/thoughts.)
Facts by E-mail kudos (blush)
How did you first hear about us?
- “Long term supporter…kudos to Ozzie for recognizing information shifts”
- “Decades ago – subscriber since 1999”
- “I’m in the RE industry how can you not hear about Ozzie”
- “I joined Royal Lepage in 1986 N.Bby office of Ken Blake. Ozzie we have met a few times. I have always respected your thoughts and insights. Have been a subscriber for years, since Facts by Fax.”
Any comments regarding the Facts by Email?
- “Ozzie, Best FBE yet! Packed with hard facts and solid analysis that I can act on. Thanks!”
- “No. Keep up the incredible job of informing your members.”
- “Keep the information coming.”
- “I enjoy the Facts by Email very much and look forward to reading it every week.”
- “No need to change. It’s perfect! Short and easy reading.”
- “The more the better.”
- “Keep them Coming!!”
- “Love it!”
- “Just keep doing what you are doing…you are my university!”
- “Keep them coming…love it!!”
- “Facts by email are great and informative.”
- “Truly, one of the best newsletters available”
- “I do like the articles. very informative. I am a small investor so it keeps me up to date.”
- “…I read it faithfully every week”
- “Always excellent commentary and analysis. Keep it up.”
- “It’s great information!!!!”
- “I like it. Always think it could be longer!??”
- “Helps to navigate the real estate market and I like the comments about how international politics affect us, like Brexit”
- “Keep the philosophy coming. A surprising number of people do not have a “core” & so are at a loss in troubling times”
- “Interesting information. Look forward to receiving it.”
- “Not really I always enjoy getting the email and often refer back to them”
Any and all other thoughts are welcome
- “You are a great resource.”
- “I like the real estate information. I think it’s a great idea to talk about the General Economy and its impact on the real estate market.”
- “Excellent source of information. I would not invest in real estate without it”
- “Great Stuff – Keep it up !!!”
- “Thanks for your good work in providing quality information on a timely basis”
- “I dread the day you fully retire. But also want to add don’t wait until the until last minute to fully enjoy what is left. and
here is an adage for your FBE. “Too soon old. Too late smart” Ozzie thanks a bunch.”
- “I believe you are doing a great service for all that wish to listen.”
Any suggestions regarding the Facts by Email?
- “I love it! With hot properties: give the contact email directly – I’ve had trouble finding it and had to phone u”
- “A free basic email service option would be good. Buy of the week etc.”
- “I enjoy the Facts by Email very much and look forward to reading it every week. I wish, though, that in some cases you would be more specific about the effect that political and economic events have on Canada and on real estate. Likewise, when urging investors to be “very cautious” it would be helpful to explain what that looks like as an investment. A lack of clear understanding of how world events impact us and how to react only creates anxiety and paralysis.”
- “It would be nice to have more stories by developers of their development experiences. I really liked the recent presentation by Charan Sethi.”
- “I would also like to read about the negative areas of investing, such as where not to invest. As an old investor I would like to read more technical advice, beyond the level of the novice.”
- “Pretty well balanced really. Perhaps a little more information on the outlining areas of the province, not so much Lower Mainland? Considering your membership, this might make very good sense. As I said, pretty well balanced.”
- “Like it, keep it up. Miss the in depth monthly newsletter you once did and mailed out. I also note that at some point in the past few years the archives of the newsletters dropped away.”
- “More info on sales and prices. listings and sales every month”
- “Over all I really enjoy receiving it and am anxious to receive it. Would like regular market stats for markets across North America, perhaps in a map (visual) form so it’s easy to see how markets across the continent are doing.”
- “I would like to see more coverage in the rest of the Province and not so much about Vancouver.”
- “Helps to navigate the real estate market and I like the comments about how international politics affect us, like Brexit”
- I’d like to see updates on Phoenix and Fort St John more often. Overall I am pleased with it and read it cover to cover.
I liked the short and long term suggestions in the last issue, like to see that quarterly
- “As mentioned tell us more directly what to do if it was him deciding. Example I am sitting in a 3.7-million-dollar home and have retired at age 59 and don’t know whether to sell to lock in the value into cash or hang on another 3-8 years until ready to downsize. Or will it likely be worth less then? What happens when all us aging boomers decide we want to sell in Vancouver – will the prices hold? Or will it be gradual enough it won’t matter?”
- “I am confused about the FBE and hotline. I thought the hotline was a short version of the FBE…. No?”
- Any comments on the subscriber-only website? (Lots of ‘No’ answers in this section too)
- “It seems overwhelming and I rarely use it”
- “I never log in to sites unless I am prompted to”
- “Did not know there was a website. could you provide more info on this and how is it different from fact by email”?
- “Maybe connect facts by email to the website to have people log in more regular, or though links in the email connecting to site. Do demos different one each month on some aspect of website. i.e. could one search easily for a property manager in the membership? What else can some find using the search or rather who else?”
- “Simplify the layout if possible”
- “I don’t find it easy to navigate.”
- “A bit hard to navigate (in my opinion)”
- “Like it. Though as mentioned above the Archived newsletters seemed to have dropped away. Perhaps I am not looking in the right places. A lot of what was in them is no longer valid but you did have some great articles on dealing with tenants, how to pick a good one, negotiating offers etc. The non statistical stuff would still be quite valid and access to it useful”
- “Would love to see the content on there expanded and some sections don’t seem to get updated too often if all… so just more timely, relevant content and perhaps reading material and/or links to other external content for investors.”
- “MAKE IT POSSIBLE TO POST QUESTIONS IN AUDIO FORMAT, AND HAVE RESPOND IN AUDIO AS WELL”
- “I find it a little confusing. Is this for members only or subscribers? What’s the difference? What is the benefit of logging onto the website beside seeing the hot deal section?”
Any and all other suggestions/thoughts are welcome
- “I think video would be great to have more of – I read so much during the day that it’s the last thing I want to do at night is read another email. As such mine just pile up and I end up deleting most after three months…”
- “Offer a consulting service to help investors.”
- “It would be good if more personal stories, from you and other members, are shared with respect to creative real estate deals. What is the specific structure of the creative deal? How many partners, who does what and what is the investment percentage by each partner, what is the break-down and profit by each partner, timeline for deal, was the project a win-win for all partners, what could be improved? This will help myself and other members to better structure their own JV deals.”
- “When talking about US R/E, Ozzie tends to focus on a few areas (Phoenix, etc.). I would like to hear about other great opportunities. I am looking into the Toledo, OH market right now and it has good potential, especially for cash flow. Other than that, I am a long term Ozzie fan…listening to him got me into investing!”
- “Find it really frustrating that when it comes time to renew a subscription, there is no warning that the subscription is coming to an end. Also, a “Catch 22” results when trying to renew (at least last February) online. Try to renew, but have to log in. If the subscription is expired, it asks you to log in, however you cannot because the subscription is expired!” (This has since been fixed by Rob.)
- “The hotline. I like the concept but it sometimes has a busy signal. To save on band width instead of a video what about just audio that we can access via the web?”
- “As a REAG member I found out that I no longer have the same access to the insider material so much of what you have been asking is no longer available to me in the insider section.”
- “Example stories of deals that have been successful and why”
- “I think Ozzie speaks too fast and I find it hard to understand him”
- “I’d like to see more independent presenters at the conferences. Seems like they mostly have something to sell. For that reason, I don’t always go.”
- “Signing up is easy but it seems rather difficult to know how to utilize the tools including the calculators. I would love to use it but don’t know where to even find it”
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK 2017
MARK YOUR CALENDAR – JUROCK REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK 2017 ON SEPTEMBER 24, 2016 IN VANCOUVER.
Our 24th annual Outlook could be the most important ever. Twelve expert speakers will tell where the opportunities – and the dangers – lie in Canada and the United States in the year ahead.
For early bird tickets (your guests only $30), special seating and more information, click onto www.reoutlook.ca
Remember: Subscriber discount for becoming a sponsor with display table booth.
WONDERING ABOUT THE HOTLINE?
Hotline Text Alert System and Hotline Code Changed
To get on the Hotline Text Alert System and receive a text update when the Hotline is ready, please text ‘Jurock‘ to the number ‘393939‘ and you will be added to the system. You will receive no more then one text a week.
The Hotline Code has also been changed. Our new Hotline access code is 8080. The Hotline phone number is still 778-328-8887.
To subscribe to Jurock’s Facts by Email call 1-800-691-1183 or 604-683-1111 or fax 604-683-1707. While the above information is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any type of investing carries inherent risks; as such, JREI cannot assume responsibility for any subscriber’s actions.