Oz Buzz 110: Mr. Carney Will Build 500,000 Per Year. Not!

August 16, 2025

Act Fast — A Limited-Time Offer from Ozzie Jurock!

Don’t miss your exclusive opportunity to stock up on Real Estate in Canada by Ozzie Jurock, the definitive guide on what, where, when, and how to buy real estate in Canada.

This isn’t a brand-new release—but it’s timeless wisdom in print, with a list price of $24.97. Today only, you can secure each copy for just $9.97—but only when you order by the case.

• Per Case: 26 books at $9.97 each = $259.22
• Total Savings: Slash the regular $649.22 cost by $390
• Buy Only By the Case — Pick-up available at our Burrard Street office

Perfect for your giveaways, client gifts, or special events. A compelling insider guide with unbeatable value—and stocks are limited.

Order your case now and save big—before this offer disappears!

Ozzie does 24 new short videos:
Comments, thoughts welcome
Watch, click “like” and “subscribe.”
YOUTUBE.COM/JUROCKVIDEO

AGENDA

• OZZIE HAS A DEAL FOR YOU!
• CARNEY WILL BUILD 500,000 PER YEAR. NOT!
• JULY WAS AN OK MONTH
• WHAT’S A STEP CODE?
• SHORT TERM RENTALS DEBACLE
• WHITHER INTEREST RATES
• OFFICE FLEX SPACE
• THE NUMBERS STUDY:
  – 3 ‘NUMBERS’ GRAPHS – RUNNING TOTAL SALES DOWN 50%!
  – HIGHEST PRICE ACHIEVED COMPARISON
  – 5-YEAR JUNE TO JUNE COMPARISON
• INFLATION/ECONOMY

WE WILL BUILD 500,000 HOMES PER YEAR!

Thus spoke our Prime Minister. However, unfortunately we can’t agree that this is possible. CMHC agrees: It says that housing starts in Canada are projected to decline steadily through 2027, reaching approximately 212,550 units. This represents a significant decrease from 2021 levels, which exceeded 270,000 units, marking a nearly 20% reduction over six years.

Oh and in Ontario: The Ontario government has updated its housing supply tracker, and the takeaway is pretty grim. It shows that 70% of municipalities fell short of their housing targets in 2024 compared to around 60% in 2023.

Key Factors Contributing to the decline are rising construction costs, increased costs for materials and labor, also economic uncertainty hold developers back plus slower population growth.

So, we don’t know how Mr. Carneys magic 500,000 houses will be built. I mean: CMHC has previously estimated that an additional 3.5 million affordable housing units are needed by 2030 to restore affordability. Then it projects we are likely building 217,000 or so per year. 500,000 not going to happen. 

It bears repeating – costs are soaring.

Almost 100% home insurance increases over the last 4-5 years.

Massive increase in property taxes, and the cost of maintenance etc. along with the continued changes in building codes and prolonged permitting processes have contributed to cost overruns. 

For example, the Woodfibre LNG project in British Columbia experienced significant cost increases due to permit delays and changes in building codes, with Enbridge’s share of the project costs rising from US$1.5 billion to US$2.9 billion. 

Major Point: Says Michael Campbell – This makes it far more attractive to simply put your money in high-quality preferred shares and take your 5% plus the dividend tax credit with no hassles. Adds Michael: “This is a problem that I think is profoundly underappreciated.”

QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS

Q: Looks like your view of employees should not work from home is losing out. More and more people stay home.
A: Actually I find the opposite to be true. Global property consultant CBRE reports U.S. businesses are making significant progress in getting employees back to the office and enforcing attendance policies, by moving closer to establishing stable work routines or ‘flex-choices.
CBRE’s latest 2025 Americas Office Occupier Sentiment Survey reveals that 72% of the 184 companies surveyed say they have successfully met their office attendance targets–a marked rise from 61% last year.

Major Point: Whatever the final outcome, it will make a huge difference on how our office markets will fare with prices. With clearer attendance expectations, many firms are reconsidering their real estate footprints. The ‘flexible space’ – part office, part home – may set the new stage.

Of course there are many hybrid solutions (some days home, some at office) but if companies want to create a culture with their employees and create an ‘esprit de corps’… employees have to meet on a regular basis. The survey finds: Lease renewals remain popular, with 86% of firms planning to renew leases upon expiration. Thus the survey states that the flexible office sector is poised for steady growth, with small businesses increasingly adopting flex space and larger companies expanding their flexible workspace usage gradually over the next two years.

Q: Looks to me that Government is the culprit above all and is doing absolutely nothing to help the industry.
A: Well, yes, somewhat. But some provinces and some municipalities try different things. BC allows developer to defer 75% of its municipal fees until closing. That will help some larger developers. Also Surrey and Delta allowed that it will not raise DCC’s during construction periods for up to 2 years. So, no surprises for builders. Also, some cities like Hamilton have lowered their development charges by 20% (two-year pilot). However, it is hard to see progress when our Prime minister makes bombastic statements (will build 500,000) houses per year, that no one believes. (CREA predicts starts to fall to 212,000 – which would be below the 270,000 achieved in 2021). Listen to Ozzie and Mike debating this point on August 9 episode https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/august-9-episode/ Also note: Why are builders not building? Look below.

Q: I am in Ontario and I keep hearing that Real Estate Boards are pushing the Government to allow foreign buyers back. How likely is that?
A: Despite widespread belief that the federal foreign buyer ban prohibits all foreign nationals from purchasing residential properties in Canada, there are exemptions that allow non-residents to buy property. Foreign buyers can purchase multi-unit buildings with four or more units and vacant land or land for development. Also, there is no ban on commercial properties for foreign buyers. We do – IN BC – however charge foreign buyers still 20% tax (not in Ontario!)…that alone keeps them out!

Q: I am confused on what to do with my mortgage renewal. Short term variable? 5 years fixed? Heloc? What to do?
A: You are not the only one. I cannot be any different about my opinion – as I have always said before, I dislike HELOC intensely and keep my mortgage as long as I want to keep the property I buy. Currently likely 3-5 years fixed. I always have gone and would go long now for my mortgage. While I believe that the BOC will reduce the rate in September or at least in November, I would go long right now. This week (August 11) I have seen 3- and 5-year fixed rates at 3.89% and 3.72%. Those are great rates to sleep at night. Of course, if I intend to flip, I go short term.

Q: Short term rental ban makes no sense to me. It drives investors away; it slows down tourists coming and affects all part of the economy. Why was this necessary?
A: You are right, our hotels are now 82% occupied at outrageous room prices we have not built a major new hotel in years. Investors are leaving (have left) in droves, and yet the need for STRs is increasing.There are many reasons for the ban, but in my opinion the likely culprit is the hotel industry. (Note Mr. Eby promised new hotels). But the reason is found right across NA: Short-term vacation rentals outperformed traditional hotels across all U.S. regions in the second quarter of 2025, marking a notable shift in the travel accommodation landscape, according to new data from Key Data, which tracked more than 13 million listings nationwide(!). “This (US) quarter’s results are a reminder that short-term rentals continue to offer a compelling value proposition for investors and travelers alike,” said Melanie Brown, VP of Data Insights at Key Data. “Despite macroeconomic pressure, demand held strong.” That is why hotels don’t like them. But with maybe 5,000,000 visitors watching the games in NA next year, one wonders, why we still have the ban … at least suspend it for a year or so, till some new hotels are built. It affects tourism, taxis, restaurants, etc., if the visitors can’t afford to stay, as in finding accommodation!

Q: The debate is now inflation or deflation – your favorite topic. What do you make of it? Is inflation coming back and interest rates higher?
A: Hard asset inflation (a monetary phenomena) will continue (consider, timing ,trend and cycles as well). U.S. July CPI print  kept the “September cut” narrative intact. The July PPI (+0.9% m/m; +3.3% y/y) has a lot of people worry about a rate cut in the US. July retail sales and industrial production continues to confirm an overall weakening of the consumption economy, making rate cuts still likely.

In Canada, we are worse off so the rate cut is almost guaranteed. Will it make much difference? In my opinion … no. We are in a psychological downturn. There is pressure because of tariffs, AI job losses etc. A 1/4 point cut will not make a difference.

Q: Good day. When you are going over “the numbers, the numbers”, is Surrey included in the Vancouver area or Fraser Valley?
I liked it better when you did Surrey separate.
A: Thanks for sharing. Yes, Surrey is included. We have a lot of subscribers making these fine suggestions.
More details in Ontario, more US, more Okanagan etc. Alas…there is only one me.

Q: Hi Ozzie, I’ve been following you and Michael for 30 years. Lately you’ve been mentioning that it is a good time to be a buyer, and to maybe make a stinkbid. How about moving up (from one property to another more expensive one?) We are looking at buying a 2.4 million property in the Chilliwack area, but it would involve selling our 1.65 million properties in the Abbotsford area. We would be trying to get a deal on the more expensive property, realizing someone will probably be doing the same on ours. Thoughts on the timing for that? I realize every situation is unique but just thinking about the idea of upsizing a market like this in general. Feel free to include the answer in your next Ozbuzz if you think it would be good for that. Thanks …
A: I am on record as saying that “if you are upgrading for certain, you are better off in a declining market.” Let’s say the market goes down 10% and you only get $1,485,000 (or a ‘loss’ of $165,000) for your current place. But on the property that you are buying you are saving $ (all things being equal) $240,000.You are $75,000 ahead. In addition the more expensive properties usually face larger discounts than regular market units. Keep your eyes peeled on the market segment in Chilliwack that you like and have a realtor send you all price reductions – daily.

Q: It seems to me, that with declining house prices, rents are declining as well. Thoughts?
A: RBC just put out a study that proves your point. Rents are now declining in more than half of Canada’s 40 Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) from a year ago. Vancouver leads with the steepest year-over-year drop in Q1 for two-bedroom units (-$270), followed by Kelowna (-$230), Calgary (-$170), Toronto (-$160), and Halifax (-$150).

Major Point: Like all averages, there are area and product exceptions. The luxury rental market and some SF home rental have come off more sharply, Townhouse rents seem to increase and condo 3 months rentals are rising in rent.

Q: Land prices are down, there are plenty of workers, why are developers not building?
A: It is interesting that many people assume that a large developer, a small builder or an investor in a development are not looking for a profit. They should just build. But it is normal to have a stock market investor expects a profit, corporations look for a profit, the local restaurant operates in the expectation of profit. Today in BC, investors are spooked by STR legislation, federal flipping tax, provincial flipping tax, foreign buyer tax (20% for commercial), foreign buyer outright residential ban. Anti-landlord legislation wants everyone out of being a landlord. Costs of operation soaring, but taxes, insurance, maintenance etc. soaring. Yet increases in rent are fixed. And taxes, taxes, taxes: Vacant home tax, speculation tax, extra school tax, UST, HST, GST, property transfer tax etc. Then each city has regulations etc. on 

• Development Cost Levies (DCLs), 
• Development Cost Charges (DCCs), and 
• building permit fees
• Demolition Fees
• Energy (WOW!) Efficiency Requirements: The City of Vancouver has its own building code and high-performance buildings strategy,
  separate from the BC Energy Step Code.

What’s a step code anyway? The BC The Step Code evaluates buildings based on:

• Thermal Energy Demand Intensity (TEDI): Annual heating energy required per square meter.
• Total Energy Use Intensity (TEUI): Total annual energy consumption per square meter.
• Airtightness: Measured by air changes per hour at a 50 Pa pressure differential, determined through blower door tests
• 5 step codes:  (1- and 2 are now mandatory) and for high rises, as of May 2023, Step 3 is mandatory for Part  9 buildings (multi family) requiring them to be approximately 20% more energy efficient than the 2018 BC Building Code baseline.
• Step 4 represents a more stringent performance level — typically involving integrated design, enhanced envelope, mechanical systems, and potentially low-carbon energy systems. Around a 40% improvement over the 2018 Code by approximately 2027.
• Step 5 The most ambitious level currently defined in the Step Code. Equivalent to “net-zero energy ready” — a home built to make achieving net-zero feasible with future renewable additions — often aligned with Passive House-level performance. Timeline goal: 80% more energy efficient than the 2018 base standards by around 2030-2032

Major Point: The costs of compliance make profitability a joke on affordability. The anti-investor stance, the costs that all levels of government add to any construction, makes it unprofitable to be in the business …  either as investor, small builder, large developer or landlord. Ergo no one is building. Oh and banks have become ruthless in (not) approving construction loans. Said one developer: “They’re implementing energy-efficient codes so fast, I’m expecting our blueprints to expire before we even break ground.”

Q: I very much disagree with your take on Mexico. I know plenty of people that made a lot of money there.
A: I wish them and you well. I also know plenty of people that have lost their shirt. 

COMMENTS

A lot of questions on:

Belvedere -25% discount saw fewer than 30 units actually sold. Questions on price slash.

The Curv: Vancouver tallest planned high rise (bankrupt with $95 million in debt) not even started.

Kerrisdale Chloe: A finished building, but an all-round disaster (deposits not paid into trust, also 92 million in debt, etc.).

In my ‘cycle’ theory I made it clear that cycles: One builds makes a profit, others jump in, more jump in, then too much is built, no one buys, no one builds for a while until one builds, etc.

Thanks for all the comments and questions.

NOTE: I TRY TO GET TO ALL THE QUESTIONS. If you have a question, put this in the subject line: ‘Subject: Ozbuzz Question” If you are a subscriber, I will answer: email info@ozbuzz.ca

Also look for answer at Youtube.com/jurockvideo

Remember: You are reading Ozzie’s opinion, not advice! And, yes, I have lots of opinions! But use only your personal professional lawyer/realtor/accountant/ to make any personal investment.

THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS

TORONTO

Despite all the yelling about TO ‘collapsing market” the GTA experienced the best home sales result for the month of July since 2021. 6,100 home sales in July 2025 – up by 10.9 per cent compared to July 2024. New listings entered into the MLS® System totalled 17,613 – up by 5.7 per cent year-over-year. Active listings are up only 22% – a far cry from previous 70-90% increases. The average selling price, at $1,051,719, was down by 5.5 per cent compared to July 2024. CREA reports also that sales are up 17.3 % since April. Go to https://trreb.ca/wp-content/files/market-stats/market-watch/mw2507.pdf for the different charts (416/905 etc)

CALGARY

Inventory levels in July were 6,917 units, reaching levels not seen since prior to the pandemic and higher than long-term trends. The total residential benchmark price in Calgary has trended down over the past several months and is currently four per cent below last year’s peak price reported in June 2024. “The steepest price declines have occurred for apartment and row style homes” There were 2,099 sales, a 12 per cent decline over last year, while new listings reached 3,911 units, an over eight per cent increase over last year. Active listings 6,917 up still 66%.

EDMONTON

2,860 units sold in July, but new listings outpaced sales as 4,387 properties were added an increase of 7.8%. New listings up 20.0% from July 2024. Active listings also trended up, with 7,083 properties available at the end of the month, up 4.7% from June and 21.8% higher than July last year.

BRITISH COLUMBIA

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 7,056 residential unit sales were recorded in July 2025, up 2.2 per cent from July 2024. The average MLS® residential price in BC in July 2025 was down 2.1 per cent at $942,686 compared to $963,047 in July 2024.

From BCREA – study your local area, hire a local professional.

VANCOUVER AND FRASER VALLEY

Three ways to look at the numbers:

1. Looking at a full year ‘rolling total’ of the last 5 years
2. Comparing JULY prices and sales to the highest ever achieved
3. Comparing JULY sales/listings to the JULY of 2025/24/23/22/21

FRASER VALLEY INCREDIBLE 12 mos. RUNNING TOTAL (SF) DOWN 65%!!!
JULY  30, 2021 – JULY  30 2021  sales   13,184
JULY  30, 2024 – JULY  30 2025   sales  4,753
Major Point: Dramatic 5-year snapshot on crashing sales (SF DOWN 65% OVER 2021).
Steady prices in both condo and SF sectors.

1. ALL-TIME HIGHS ACHIEVED: (Comparing different months is only meaningful if you want to know ABSOLUTE HIGHS.)

HIGHEST PAST MONTHLY PRICE AND SALES COMPARED TO JULY 2025.

3. VANCOUVER SF AND CONDOS

Sales and Prices of JULY over last JULY. Well below the 10-year average.

VANCOUVER: Here is a 5-year month of JULY 2025 over the month of JULY 2024/2023/2022/2021 comparison.

Major Point Vancouver:

Condo – New Listings even y-o-y  in JULY! Active Listings up 10%
SF Sales – Down 5% from 2024, but sharply below 2021 (more than -40%).
Price? – SF down 3% over JULY – 266,000 (marginally)
NOTE: Sales down y-o-y as well as active listings up across the board! (marginally)

FRASER VALLEY: Here is a 5-year JULY 2025 over JULY 2024/2023/2022/2021 comparison.

Major Point: 

FV – SF Active listings up 11% in JULY
FV – Condo Active Listings up 19% in JULY
FV –  Sales SF UP 02%! Condo sales down 06% over 2024. Well down over 2021 – 554!

Clearly when you look at SF over the last 4 years, the month of July is about the same or within +- 5% (about 650 sales).

Only if you go back to July 2021 (over 1000 units sold) is there the major decline. Yet the video YouTube crowd is yelling as if NOW is the worst time. Toronto is actually performing higher, other cities only marginally lower and listings not outrageously increasing – active or new (except Calgary).

MAJOR, MAJOR POINT: 

As always, we say that there is no best deal market, there are only the best deals that you negotiate! And in August 2025 you CAN negotiate. Hire experienced realtors, quality experienced mortgage brokers (not all brokers have access to all lenders) and real estate-oriented lawyers. For recommendation ask Ozzie.

WANT TO PARTICIPATE?

Go to realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory at bcred.ca

OZZIE’S YOUTUBE CHANNEL

You can watch all videos and podcasts on my YouTube channel at youtube.com/jurockvideo. It is a great way to check on what I said 10 years ago.

Moneytalks Podcast

Ozzie, Michael Campbell, Michael Levy and Victor Adair and guests are now on podcasts every week: mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/ (See Victor Adair’s Trading Desk notes! victoradair.ca)

OZBUZZ.CA

Why subscribe if I can just go to the website at ozbuzz.ca? Hot properties and the latest podcasts are DISTRIBUTED TO SUBSCRIBERS FIRST– posted 2 weeks later on website.

HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?

You can reach me at info@ozbuzz.ca with all of your questions, comments and concerns regarding the Oz Buzz publication.