Oz Buzz 112: Black Swan – Mortgage-Backed Securities? No, But Worse! CLOs?!

October 27, 2025

Friends:

We are currently overwhelmed with questions and advice-seeking emails. I am flattered by comments and grateful musings, but please, please note:

Everything you read here reflects my personal opinion — based on experience, data, and the occasional cup of strong coffee. The information, statistics, and ideas shared are meant for general interest and educational purposes only. I am not offering financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — and none of this should be taken as a recommendation to buy, sell, or invest in anything (except maybe good coffee beans).

Ozzie talks, talks, talks short – personal growth:

• Understanding means nothing.
• Yesterday’s dreams – Today’s Realities
• It is your life not ….
• Result goals vs action goals
• There is no growth without discontent.
• Vive la Difference
• Open doors with recognition,praise,

Go Here: https://www.youtube.com/@ozziejurockvideo/shorts

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Real estate and markets change faster than politicians change promises, so while I strive for accuracy, no guarantees are made that the information here is complete or up to date. Always do your own due diligence and consult qualified personal professionals before making big financial decisions.  Bottom line: These are my views, my interpretations, and my take on the world of real estate — not advice, not gospel, just one man’s opinion from the trenches.

Cheers, Ozzie 

AGENDA

• BLACK SWAN – MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES? NO, BUT WORSE! CLOs?!
• PRIVATE REITS – STILL BEWARE!
• VANCOUVER SF SALES UP AGAIN!
• THE RESALE MARKET REPRESENTS 89% OF ALL REAL ESTATE SALES. Why do you focus on presale woes (less than 4%)?
• THE MARKET IS COLLAPSING – YOUR NUMBERS ARE WRONG! NOT!
• A FURTHER CUT IN RATES THIS WEEK – WHITHER MORTGAGE RATES?
• THE NUMBERS STUDY: 5-YEAR SEPTEMBER TO SEPTEMBER COMPARISON
• .COM BUBBLE CRASH REPEATED IN AN .AI CRASH?
• BOOK, SONG, OF THE MONTH
• QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

COMMENTS AND QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS

Summarized popular Qs: Most emails and finger waving and phone calls on Ozbuzz 111 (please stop!)

(You can hire Ozzie here: ozziejurock.com/speaker/ Currently Sold Out)

1. PRIVATE REITS/FUNDS (comments and questions) 
   Last month’s concerns about private REITS/Funds halting remittances raised concerns in several subscribers. Mostly it was: What to do? Answer? That depends on what you agreed to when you invested? What did you sign? Likely a (well managed) fund has reserved the right to withhold redemptions – depending on circumstances. That’s why we at Ozbuzz advised you more than 16 months ago to stay out (or beware) of all funds that are investing long term with money you may need short term. We quoted huge funds starting to withhold redemptions. We used big examples: Even the giants at BlackRock Future Innovators ETF stopped redemption orders October 30, 2023. Additionally, BlackRock halted redemptions for a £3.5 billion UK property fund that January, etc. Our point was, that when the big boys halt redemptions, what do you think your MIC or other real estate funds will do. To the many questions of ‘who all stopped redemptions and when’ we quoted firms like KingSett Capital, Hazelview Investments, and Trez Capital as having suspended redemptions most recently in 2024 and 2025. For a complete list and status talk to your financial advisors. Remember you maybe in a good fund, but when investing in real estate you can’t always get out quickly.
2. .COM TYPE CRASH WITH AI?
   This above hint at a comparison raised eyebrows, hackles and an avalanche of questions. I now understand why so many people are sitting on sidelines and keep quoting the illustrious yet scary Martin Armstrong predictions and (many) others that see a dark time/wars/etc. ahead. 
   Indeed, there is (was) a parabolic rise in gold which everyone seems to be chasing as never before. As well as a soaring stock market…Then…black swan? New regional banks issues (details are not forthcoming, or at least not believable. And stocks are soaring even higher. 
   Major Point: If Wall Street were to wobble and go down 10% or more, that would indeed NOT be a surprise. Am I predicting it. NO. Am I in stocks? NO. Am I in real estate? Just closed on a bargain condo. YES! 
3. BLACK SWAN? CRASH? MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES – NOT! 
   Black Swan? YES! Regional banks in trouble with CLOS. YES, SEE BELOW!

HIGHLIGHTING CURRENT ISSUES:

1. BUYERS MARKET? Michael Campbell and I have discussed the incredible fine BUYERs market opportunities on Moneytalks (Mikesmoneytalks.ca) a few times. Included are “Hot Properties”.Age old wisdom: You make the most money on the day you buy.
2. 2008/9 ALL OVER AGAIN? Even if it were. If you picked up my 2009 book “What, When, Where, and How to buy Real Estate in Canada” you would read on page 15:“This is the most unreported inflation of hard assets of all times. We will go thru the cycles and a down cycle is not far away at this time. But you must be on the appreciation conveyor belt. If you are not, you are going to be left so far behind that it will be financially disastrous.”

   The SF home price in Vancouver that I quoted was at $900,000 then and today it is? $2,100,000!

   At the same time the news of the day was dire: “Lehman Bros, collapses, war” screamed the headlines. But if you just had bought a house with 10% down? Your $90,000 dollars would have grown by $1,200,000! Why? One word: Leverage!

Q: Again: Your item on Defeats caught my eye. So, you are forecasting a .com like crash?
A: I talked about a ‘seemingly’ direct comparison. An astonishing new invention happens (.com – AI), huge soaring valuations, no profits – only projections of profit until much later.  Ok, ok, AI is different! But is it? Huge valuations but not yet profitable? See item above. The questions on CLO came mainly in connection with the .com comments. Is the situation AI the same? A: Your call!

MUCH MORE IMPORTANT IS THE QUESTION ON CLOs! CLO!  Why more important? It only takes one true BLACK SWAN! If the Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) debacle was the Black Swan in 2008/9 …is the  current CLO situation the same as the MBS? (Bundling bad loans with one or too good ones and then get investors piling in for yield…ultimately a collapse.) More…

Q: (Last (unpaid) phone call I accept) PLEASE, WHAT’S A CLO?
It is a fancy name “collateralized loan obligation”. Indeed, very similar than the MBS, it consists of hundreds of corporate loans leveraged to the hilt, with ‘B’ and worse rated loans packaged up and sold to investors after slicing them into ‘ tranches”. Investors and in particular, corporations and banks buy these for yields. Dangerous? Indeed! These loans have poor or volatile covenants/highly leveraged – in the billions. When defaults rise even the so-called ‘top rated’ tranches could go under and drag the rest under.

COL are part of this tightening credit cycle and if and when the yield music stops there is indeed a comparison to MBS possible. However, MBS collateral was often nonexistent, COLs need watching but not quite the same thing. Major Point: Is a collapse there possible? Yes, like in all things its possible. Should you buy CLOs? Huh?!!

NOTE!  “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” –John Maynard Keynes

Q: Time for gold?
A: A percentage in gold 5-10% etc. is one thing. Gold coins even better. For safety and survival in truly bad times. (Not my call). If bad times were really bad, you can’t walk around with a gold bar … but a gold coin? Works. However, as an investment? Everybody touts it today. And yes, it took off, it doubled since 2020. However, had you bought it in 2010 at $1,300 an ounce your $90,000 DP (that you used as a  had you bought a house) would have grown to about $276,000 ($4,000 an ounce of gold).

Nice!  But not like the house … as you grew it to $1.2 million!

Most worrying:

1. Fear. People are lining up for gold worldwide! As well for silver because they look at regional bank trouble, pending CLO trouble and a mad stock market.
2. The fear is the most worrying.
3. EVERYTHING IS PEAKING!
4. Yes, be very afraid of debt! Its looks like 2021.  Only worse. More debt more volatility. Systemic horror show? On debt markets.

Q: Your numbers are too rosy. The true market numbers are a disaster. Toronto is in an outright collapse, Calgary is dead and Vancouver is in the worst market ever. You, Sir, are out to lunch.
A: Not agreed. In fact, the word ‘true’ galls me, as if my numbers were not true. Get off your biased horse. Do you even know what you are quoting or comparing? The real estate market is comprised of various product mixes (townhomes, SF homes, condos, row homes and semi detached), as well as different market areas – all dancing to different drums.

In any real estate market, sales are compared to previous months and/or years. But most importantly there are resale markets and new sales market. Resale markets represent over 80 percent of all sales and new sales in some markets less than 5%

If you talk about market numbers of presales, they are indeed a disaster, brought about by various government initiatives and general price fatigue as well as an oft repeated normal cycle: We don’t build anything, then all developers get into building, we build too much, then we stop building, we have too much inventory, etc. about a. 4-5 yr cycle.

That has very little to do with the general real estate market. It’s a segment.

Currently at the year ending September 2025 we have sold 6,224 RESALE SF homes (6,624 in 2024) in Vancouver and 186 new homes (214 in 2024). We sold 11,842 RESALE condos (11,891 in 2024) and 728 (908 in 2024) new condos. These are RE board stats numbers.

I’m quoting also the total market in Canada as per CREA and BCREA all show a somewhat stabilizing general market. You can look at the actual numbers (Board numbers) then do a 5-year comparison on the general resale market. What is collapsing, other than presales and overhang of finished/unsold condos?

Q: Several issues ago, you had a quote on tolerance by a German Philosopher. Please tell me the issue no.
A: More and more people comment on Britain, France and Sweden societies are in serious trouble because of misdirected multiculturalism. We are next. The Paradox of Tolerance INDEED! I put it up again (look above). The AUSTRIAN philosopher view seems to get more and more relevant in our current worldwide political environment where the intolerant are taking over. And they DO NOT tolerate the tolerant. (Us!)

Q: I wish you would not put interesting topics under ‘Questions’. I know your agenda shows an item, but I have to go through the whole newsletter to find it – usually thru answering a question. Stop questions and make headlines of the topics that you announce in Agenda.
A: Thank you for taking the time. We have noted your concern, but are not really sure we get it. In all our surveys, Q&A is the most popular section.

Q: Love your shorts on TikTok You did not do any in the last 2 weeks.
A: I actually am slightly ahead of my own schedule (50 pearls of…). So far at 32. But the complete set is on https://www.youtube.com/@ozziejurockvideo/shorts. On TikTok, I put different versions to see how they track.

Q: Soo many of YOU are FOR work from home. 
A: I’m not. This quote from last month Q&A still resonates within me: “I want my employees to be in the office. They are all in, also, no one complains. We get off on each other. Celebrate our victories, cry about defeats, plan comebacks – together! There is no other way. Stick to your guns, Ozzie.”
Hmm, did I say resonates? Yep!

Q: Why not start a live session on YouTube. Announce the time and we all can chat and ‘solve the world’s problems.
A: It’s a good idea whose time has not yet come. The live sessions we did have died for nonparticipation. It’s the same on my YouTube channel in general. We have a totality of well over 40,000 followers on 3 Facebook, LinkedIn, twitter, Instagram, Oz buzz, realestatetalks etc. sites but less than 3,000 subscribers on YouTube. People don’t subscribe or like…

Q: I know Mike likes Martin Armstrong. Does he share his war views, love for Russia and Europe’s death?
B: Ask Mike questions direct at mikesmoneytalks.ca. Even better for an answer view Mike in conversation with Marty here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mcj48uIt_dI

SEVERAL COMMENTS/QUESTIONS ON INTEREST RATE / ECONOMY

CANADA: INFLATION – UNEMPLOYMENT

We talked about unemployment for the last 4 months. Now we have continued layoffs (Air Canada- several hundred, Stellantis recently announcing moving 3,000 jobs to US. Ots of strikes. Add to that hundred of store closing (i.e. Pizza hut 57) etc. all because of online shopping. At the same time inflation clocked higher (it unexpectedly jumped from 1.9 per cent to 2.4 per cent). All that means more uncertainty, fear and it also means that the Bank of Canada will lower the policy interest rate by 25 basis points on the 29^th.   That drop would bring the policy rate to 2.25 per cent. Moreover, tariff talk, word wars with the US all add fear and uncertainty.

Tiff Macklem warned last month that slow economic growth in Canada would “not feel good.”  Will that make people rush out and buy a house? We don’t think so, the general uncertainty make everyone much less likely. Will that generate a lot more real deals for savvy buyers? Absolutely!

The more important date? Budget date of November 4. The Liberals are expected to deliver a significant amount of fiscal stimulus to the economy (if not how to pay for it). It is crazy to wait so long then being told, it wont be a complete budget and there is even a rumbling about that date triggering an election.

Q: I heard you talk about Hot Property on MoneyTalks? Where do I find them?
A: Hot property (from Moneytalks Oct 18)
1. Coquitlam. 2 BR, 2 Bath 823 sf. South facing $699,000  (Fion Yung, Remax: fionyyung@gmail.com)
2. New West  2 BR 2 Bath Concrete condo, Riverview, 1,300 sq ft. $700,000 plus 1 older bedroom for$350,000. Brent@brentroberts.com, Royal Lepage)

Book of the Month

A good read, witty and alas: true…

Senator Kennedy… “How to Test Negative for Stupid: And Why Washington Never Will.”

Music of the Month

Best rock songs on …PIANO… by … the grand Margarita Sipatova

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yoa6i9rEXkk&list=RDYoa6i9rEXkk&start_radio=1

Thanks for all the comments and questions. I TRY TO GET TO ALL THE QUESTIONS. If you have a question, put this in the subject line: ‘Subject: Ozbuzz Question”. If you are a subscriber, I will answer.

Also look for answer at www.Youtube.com/jurockvideo

Remember: You are reading Ozzie’s opinion, not advice! And, yes, I have lots of opinions! But use only your personal professional lawyer/realtor/accountant/ to make any personal investment.

THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS

CANADA NUMBERS

According to CREA The number of home sales recorded was the best month of September for sales since 2021.

• Actual monthly activity came in 5.2% above September 2024.
• The number of newly listed properties edged down 0.8% on a month-over-month basis.
• The actual national average sale price ticked up 0.7% on a year-over-year basis.

There were 199,772 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of September 2025, up 7.5% from a year earlier but very close to the long-term average for this time of the year.

There were 4.4 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of September 2025, unchanged from July and August and the lowest level since January. The long-term average for this measure of market balance is five months of inventory.

Following declines in the first quarter of the year, the national benchmark price has remained mostly stable since April.

TORONTO

September home sales increased in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) compared to a year earlier. GTA REALTORS® reported 5,592 home sales in September 2025 – up by 8.5 per cent compared to September 2024. New listings entered into the MLS® System amounted to 19,260 – up by four per cent year-over-year. For more details go here: https://trreb.ca/gta-housing-market-sees-boost-in-september-following-interest-rate-cut/

BRITISH COLUMBIA

BCREA reports 5,782 residential unit sales in September 2025, up 4.4 per cent from September 2024. The average residential price in BC was up 0.4 per cent at $948,296 compared to $944,298 in September 2024.

“Home sales in the province are gaining momentum following a slow first half of 2025,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “We anticipate sales will finish the year strong, aided by lower interest rates helping to unleash pent-up demand.”

From BCREA – study your local area, hire a local professional.

VANCOUVER AND FRASER VALLEY

1. ALL-TIME HIGHS ACHIEVED: HIGHEST PAST MONTHLY PRICE AND SALES COMPARED TO SEPTEMBER 2025.

MAJOR, MAJOR POINT: NOTE: We expect a .25 percent interest rate cut in Canada … same for USA.

Housekeeping:

In order to continue the ‘clean up’ of our database we now have eliminated several thousand subscribers (which had not opened their Ozbuzz in 2 months). Again, if you are one of them and like to come back, we LOVE to have you, but you need to sign in again at www.ozbuzz.ca. We will continue to ‘clean up’. We are a free blog to those that want/like/care for it.

WANT TO PARTICIPATE?

Go to realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory at bcred.ca

OZZIE’S YOUTUBE CHANNEL

You can watch all videos and podcasts on my YouTube channel at youtube.com/jurockvideo. It is a great way to check on what I said 10 years ago.

Moneytalks Podcast

Ozzie, Michael Campbell, Michael Levy and Victor Adair and guests are now on podcasts every week: mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/ (See Victor Adair’s Trading Desk notes! victoradair.ca)

OZBUZZ.CA

Why subscribe if I can just go to the website at ozbuzz.ca? Hot properties and the latest podcasts are DISTRIBUTED TO SUBSCRIBERS FIRST– posted 2 weeks later on website.

HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?

You can reach me at info@ozbuzz.ca with all of your questions, comments and concerns regarding the Oz Buzz publication.