Oz Buzz

November 24, 2025

On private credit company collapses: Jamie Dimon said: “Further failures are likely to emerge. My antenna goes up when things like that happen. I probably shouldn’t say this but when you see one cockroach, there’s probably more. And so everyone should be forewarned at this point.” (!)
Friends:

Wow! Woowie! My offer of a guest spot at the last Real Estate Action Group meeting was taken up in 4 minutes. We extended it and several of you decided instead to just pay the small attendance fee. Also, several of you chose to join the 22-year-old club because of the rare special offered. Many asked whether we would do it again for the incredible-powerful meeting planned for December 15. We have not yet decided on the final format. But you can show your interest by writing to Dominique and listing your name / email / telephone, and she’ll be in touch. DOMINIQUE: dhendriks2629@gmail.com
We are currently overwhelmed with questions and advice-seeking emails. I am flattered by comments and grateful musings, but please note: 
Everything you read here reflects my personal opinion – based on experience, data, and the occasional cup of strong coffee. The information, statistics, and ideas shared are meant for general interest and educational purposes only. I am not offering financial, investment, legal, or tax advice – and none of this should be taken as a recommendation to buy, sell, or invest in anything (except maybe good coffee beans).
Ozzie talks, talks, talks short – personal growth:

  • YOU HAVE 5 EQUITIES
  • IF YOU ARE IN LOVE….
  • YOUR PERSONAL BUSINESS PLAN

Go Here: https://www.youtube.com/@ozziejurockvideo/shorts

(like and subscribe)
Real estate and markets change faster than politicians change promises, so while I strive for accuracy, no guarantees are made that the information here is complete or up to date. Always do your own due diligence and consult qualified personal professionals before making big financial decisions. Bottom line: These are my views, my interpretations, and my take on the world of real estate – not advice, not gospel, just one man’s opinion from the trenches. –Cheers, Ozzie
  • NOT REDEEMING – PRIVATE EQUITY
  • COCKROACHES
  • CLOs – THE BLACK SWAN
  • FRASER VALLEY NEW LISTINGS DOWN 15%! 
  • RESALE MARKET VS NEW MARKET
  • THE NUMBERS STUDY:  5-YEAR OCTOBER TO OCTOBER COMPARISON
  • BOOK, SONG OF THE MONTH
  • HOT PROPERTY – 4 PLEX $889,400
  • FITCH WARNS CANADA ON CREDIT RATING
  • QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS 

OZZIE COMMENTS

Since 1993 I have written a real-estate-oriented newsletter (paid subscription until 2018), and since then turned it into this blog — Oz Buzz. REAL ESTATE ORIENTED!

But lately I am hammered … hammered with CLOs, MBS, private equity, stocks, crypto. Not real estate – but what it does spell? Fear! The majority of questions SPELL FEAR. On top of this, dozens of questions/comments on the Cowichan ruling. YEP – ALL SPELL FEAR. I will – against my better judgement – delve into some of the more worrisome aspects of the worldwide FEAR that we find ourselves in. I’ll let you decide whether the fear is justified.

I can’t alleviate your concerns, but as I pointed out at the last REAG meeting: we have been here before … several times. Fear was always real, oppressing … but they all eventually resulted in 1. Muddling through and 2. Opportunity.

We had 1,000 banks close in the US in 1991; five-year-term mortgages at 13.5% in the 1995-1998 era; Russian, Mexican, Asian currency crises one after the other; and then Bear Stearns in 2008. FEAR!

OK what is the fear about?

INVESTOR PANIC BIG BOYS WANT THEIR MONEY BACK. 

RESULT: CASCADE OF SELLING

Long term subscribers should not be that surprised, since Ozbuzz warned about keeping one’s money in MICs, Private funds. In fact, in anything that uses your money for long term or speculative investments. Or anything that you can’t take your money out when you want it. We warned at length with examples about major corporations halting redemption. It now is accelerating.

Four weeks ago it started with the collapse of the sub-prime auto lender Tricolor and the car parts supplier First Brands. Then two Regional banks (now 3), even Swiss hedge funds o UBS group (winds down O’Connor funds).

The latest that makes the headlines Blue Owl Capital, instant 20%-30% loss, no redemptions, and a lot worse ahead. The broader private credit / business development company (BDC) space is under pressure: valuations, credit quality, regulatory/structural risk, and investor sentiment are all being challenged. (We shared that last 2 months). Now, FEAR! People want their money back … and increasingly … they can’t.

Just like in the movie “ The Big Short”: They want their money back! That’s the start.

Dear Reader: Google the companies quoted. Find out who is running Blackrock and HPS story. Who runs who? The private equity market is huge, CLOs dominate (what’s in ‘em?) (Just like the MBS in 2008) … so yes, FEAR is warranted. The recent worst of the worse? A real estate improvement company – a $150-million-dollar company (of announced assets) a month ago, went bankrupt showing $50,000 in assets only!! Google it! What? Who?

Renovo Home Partners, a home improvement contractor. According to statements by billionaire Jeffrey Gundlach, the story is as follows:

  • Gundlach cited Renovo as a case where its private‐credit obligations were valued at roughly US$150 million by major lenders and then shortly later marked essentially to zero.
  • The key point: Gundlach cited it as an example of how the private‐credit market can abruptly go from “100 cents on the dollar” to “zero” in a matter of weeks.
  • He referred to Renovo’s bankruptcy (or near bankruptcy/asset wipeout) and stated that a loan extended by BlackRock Inc. to Renovo was marked from full value to zero.

Major Point: HUH? From $150 million to zero!

We had 17 comments on “Tolerance”. And on speeches I made, it quickly became a topic. So here is more on the Paradox of Tolerance:

“Less well known is the paradox of tolerance: 

“Unlimited tolerance must lead to the disappearance of tolerance. If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them.”

 

QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS, COMMENTS

CRYPTO QUESTIONS ALSO ABOUNDED THIS MONTH

One trillion crypto lost in 72 hours. Bitcoin crash started on a Sunday evening (strange), drops 8% in 8 hours, 12 percent in 2 days. Billions … BILLIONS lost! Is this chaos? Nope, in my opinion it looks like an orchestrated event.

YEP, THERE IS REASON TO BE FEARFUL.

QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS

23 Qs and As on BLACK SWAN? CRASH? 

All questions relating to that and other last months CLO, MBS etc. items are covered in my comments and will not be repeated.

Q: I like your recording of Michael Campbell and you from last month. Just like the old CKNW show. I wish I had known.
A: Not sure what you wish, but Mike and the 30-year Saturday Morning Gang of Levy, Adair, Jurock left CKNW in favour of podcasts and videos in 2021! (time indeed flies). Catch the new show every Saturday at 8:30 AM, but also you can get it ANY TIME here: Money talks (Mikesmoneytalks.ca).

Q: I hear you say that You make the most money on the day you buy. Even today? 
A: I have said it for 40 years. In this market several people bought condos with a 20% discount…and no money down. I indeed think they made the most money as they bought.

Q: Boy, I really liked your resale market versus new market argument. That makes so much sense. I’m a realtor. I copied it and it works the same in Victoria.
A: In today’s world with AI and everyone and his dog on YouTube, you have to be doubly aware of what you accept as fact. The new condo market, the presale market are indeed dead (for now). The resale market is not.

Q: I could not believe that picture of you on a horse (goodlooking guy), turned into a video by your grandson. Amazing!
A: Indeed. If you can make a still photo where both legs turn to the camera and the video (same horse) has my legs straddle the horse, what else is real or unreal? Blew me away. Be astounded: https://www.facebook.com/oz.jurock/

Q: I like your item on leverage. I have been preaching it to my office forever. Real Estate has easily accessible leverage to everyone. Gold doesn’t, stocks don’t, etc. On top of it, you have someone else pay the mortgage.
A: Yes, although you can add margin on stocks, and there is work involved managing tenants … but yes, leverage is the BIG SECRET!

Q: What is a MBS? CLO?
A: For details look at the issue #111 and #112. “Mortgage-backed Security” and “collateralized loan obligation.”

Q: I liked Senator Kennedy’s book you recommended. Do we have someone like him in Canada?
A: Nope, although he/she would find similarities galore.

Q: Fitch cut Canada’s credit rating again. What does it mean? 
A: If Fitch did it would not be good for us. But it has not yet. It stated that Canada faces “persistent fiscal expansion” and a rising debt burden, which are weakening its credit profile. Also, Canada lacks “a clear fiscal anchor, fiscal stance remains expansionary.” Canada’s rating was downgraded by Fitch from AAA to AA+ in June 2020. Further downgrades could follow. OK, a downgrade would increase borrowing costs for the federals, provinces, municipalities, businesses, and household borrowing. It’s a clear warning, but not in place yet. 

NOTE! “Markets aren’t rational debates — they’re noisy auctions of emotion. Be sure you don’t run out of cash before the mood turns.”

Most worrying? As last month:

  • Fear. People are scared worldwide!
  • Now add fear of world war, Marty Armstrong interest rate black forecasts.
  • But the fear itself is the most worrying.
  • Yes, be very afraid of debt! Its looks like 2021. Only worse. More debt more volatility. Systemic horror show? On debt markets.
  • What not to worry about?
  • We have been here before.
  • We have muddled through – always
  • We are in Canada – Paradise… Or we are in the USA – not Europe.
  • Embrace the change. (But not self-serve machines).
  • Remember: Real Estate investments always, always recovered. In fact, I have often regretted selling, never regretted keeping a property.

SEVERAL COMMENTS / QUESTIONS ON INTEREST RATE / ECONOMY

CANADA: INFLATION – UNEMPLOYMENT 

A Reuters poll suggested at least two further cuts in 2025. While it’s true that the weaker economy and rising unemployment seems to be pushing the BoC towards easing we don’t think it likely that either in Canada or the US there will be 2 cuts. We doubt there will be even one in December, because with the rate cut to 2.25%, the BoC is signalling that the cycle of rate hikes is behind us. But it is possible: Consumer price inflation (CPI) was 2.4% in September, slightly above what the BoC had expected. The unemployment rate was cited at around 7.1% in September and job gains have been weak; wage growth is slowing. With the labour market cooling (mass layoffs by big players), the BoC has more space to consider loosening monetary policy. NOTE: US Unemployment is 4.3%.

To note: 

  • Next CPI and core inflation data (Nov 29): Is inflation coming down or staying elevated?
  • Unemployment and wage growth: If jobs continue weak and wages soften, more cuts become likely (so many mass layoffs and store closings).
  • Official BoC commentary: Will they emphasize inflation risk or growth/support risk?
  • Effects on fixed income, mortgage rates, housing: Cuts shift the landscape for borrowing and asset markets.

Q: Hot Property on Money Talks? 
Hot properties:
Vancouver: Downtown Condo (furnished). Rent income $5,800. Price: $1,175,000.
Edmonton: Legal Fourplex. $889,400. Rent $6,450.

RECOMMENDED BOOK OF THE MONTH

Not a new book, by this is a Jewel! Gary Keller’s “The ONE Thing.” The Surprisingly Simple Truth Behind Extraordinary Results. It simplifies productivity down to a strong, memorable question and principle, rather than a lengthy list of techniques.

RECOMMENDED SONGS OF THE MONTH

Q: I liked your German singers. I can’t find it, which issue was she in? I think about setting your love free.
A: Likely Frida Gold:  So many things have changed (in German) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjuAoCi9p70&list=RDWjuAoCi9p70&start_radio=1
or 
Lorena Kirchhoffer “Ohne Dich”  “Without you” – a famous Rammstein LOVE song. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEP6KlXpkSc&list=RDpEP6KlXpkSc&start_radio=1
or 
Sotiria “I set you free my Angel. I’ll always love you”  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUYJZwZIGuo&list=RDtUYJZwZIGuo&start_radio=1

Thanks for all the comments and questions.

  • I TRY TO GET TO ALL THE  questions. If you have a question, put this in the subject line: ‘Subject: Ozbuzz Question” If you are a registered subscriber, I will answer.
  • Also look for answer at www.Youtube.com/jurockvideo

Remember: You are reading Ozzie’s opinion, not advice! And, yes, I have lots of opinions! But use only your personal professional lawyer/realtor/accountant/ to make any personal investment.

THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS

We must separate resale numbers from new numbers! Listen to Mike and Ozzie discuss resale market vs new markets from last Saturday: https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/november-22-episode/ (ghost over the top to Ozzie segment at the 50:57 minute mark). Following declines in the first quarter of the year, the national benchmark price has remained mostly stable since April.

British Columbia

BCREA reports that 6,374 residential unit sales were recorded in October 2025, down 10.2 per cent. The average price in BC in October 2025 was up 0.8% at $978,658 compared to $970,483 in October 2024.

“Sales activity in many regions of the province has recovered to pre-tariff levels, with more expensive regions continuing to lag behind,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “We expect demand to steadily enter the market as interest rates fall, driving a stronger final quarter of the year.”

Year-to-date, BC residential unit sales are down 4.8 per cent year-over-year at 60,954 units, while the average MLS residential price is also down 2.8 per cent to $952,273.

From BCREA – study your local area, hire a local professional.

VANCOUVER AND FRASER VALLEY

VANCOUVER SNAPS:

SALES: NEW: -56%! Stop worrying about new. Resale – 1.7%

October SF sales are down 2% OVER LAST OCTOBER, they are still higher than OCTOBER 2023 and 2022. 

Vancouver SF active listings are up 7%, condominium new listings are DOWN by 5%.

Here is a 5-year OCTOBER 2025 over OCTOBER 2024/2023/2022/2021 comparison

VANCOUVER – Single Family

Major Point: Vancouver SF price in OCTOBER is stable around $2.1 million and still up over 2021 price of $2,052,000. (But well below the $2,302,000 high achieved in March 2022 and summer 2024.)

The Vancouver and Fraser Valley Real Estate Boards have the BEST current statistics.
Get your professional realtor give you the numbers for the sub-area in which YOU are interested.

FRASER VALLEY – Single Family

Major Point: Fraser Valley. SF and condo sales are down over 2024. But NEW condo listings are down a whopping 15% and active listings just a tad higher.

NOTE: Interest rates are GOOD!!! Ozbuzz feels that first time buyers can go long at below 4% (get a good broker!). Investors go to the length of term you expect to keep property. Variables have lower penalties…

Long term: US will kill QT on December 1. QE will come back. Inflation will be the issue. Rates will likely NOT come down further for a while. The deals remain in the (LM) new condo overhang (close to 4,500 units finished and unsold). I mean REAL deals. Remember clients see videos about crashing markets. That is new construction ONLY … country wide!!!

MAJOR, MAJOR POINT: As always, we say that there is no best deal market, there are only the best deals that you negotiate! And in November 2025 you CAN negotiate. Hire experienced realtors, quality experienced mortgage brokers (not all brokers have access to all lenders) and real estate-oriented lawyers. For recommendation ask Ozzie.

Housekeeping:

In order to continue the ‘clean up’ of our database we now have eliminated several thousand subscribers (which had not opened their Ozbuzz in 2 months). Again, if you are one of them and like to come back, we LOVE to have you, but you need to sign in again at www.ozbuzz.ca. We will continue to ‘clean up’. We are a free blog to those that want/like/care for it.

Oz Buzz Podcast

Disclaimer

Please note that any response to any email or any invitation to any meeting is accepted on the understanding that “Jurock Real Estate Insider (JREI)”, “OzBuzz (OB)”, “JCIR (JC)” as the case may be, are not responsible for any result or results of any action or actions taken in reliance upon any information contained in this posting or meeting, nor for any errors contained therein or presented thereat or omissions in relation thereto. It is further understood that the said OB or JREI, or JCIR as the case may be, do not, pursuant to this posting, purport to render legal, accounting, tax, financial, planning, or other professional advice. The said OB and JREI and JCIR may or may not own properties discussed at meetings or receive or not receive referral fees at any meeting you may attend as a result of this posting or invitation. The said OB and JREI and JCIR, as the case may be, hereby disclaim all and any, liability to any person, whether a purchaser of any offering, a reader of any offering, or, otherwise, arising in respect of this postings and of the consequences of anything done or purported to be done by any such person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of these postings. If you respond to any posting OB or JREI and JCIR or attend any meeting from and by said companies, we fully expect that you get independent legal/tax/investment/mortgage advice as the case may be.

WANT TO PARTICIPATE?

Go to realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory at bcred.ca

OZZIE’S YOUTUBE CHANNEL

You can watch all videos and podcasts on my YouTube channel at youtube.com/jurockvideo. It is a great way to check on what I said 10 years ago.

Moneytalks Podcast

Ozzie, Michael Campbell, Michael Levy and Victor Adair and guests are now on podcasts every week: mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/ (See Victor Adair’s Trading Desk notes! victoradair.ca)

OZBUZZ.CA

Why subscribe if I can just go to the website at ozbuzz.ca? Hot properties and the latest podcasts are DISTRIBUTED TO SUBSCRIBERS FIRST– posted 2 weeks later on website.

HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?

You can reach me at info@ozbuzz.ca with all of your questions, comments and concerns regarding the Oz Buzz publication.

RECENT POSTS