Oz Buzz 115: Predictions, predictions, predictions

January 26, 2026

MUST ATTEND: World Outlook Financial Conference (WOFC) — Feb 6–7, 2026

Here’s what’s coming next — and how to position your money!

Mike Campbell’s MoneyTalks World Outlook Financial Conference (WOFC) is the quintessential 2-day investing and economic outlook conference in Vancouver. Every year, top market analysts deliver forecasts and actionable strategies for the year ahead.

The focus includes:

• Global economic outlook (rates, inflation, currencies, geopolitics)
• Where money is moving (weak currencies → strong ones; cash → tangible assets; bonds → stocks; capital → “safe havens”)
• Investment themes and sectors (commodities, hard assets, plus workshops)
• Main-stage presentations + breakout workshops + exhibitor hall

📍 Dates & Location: Feb 6–7, 2026 — Westin Bayshore, Vancouver
🎟️ Agenda & Tickets: https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/wofc-event-info-2026/
✅ Yes, Ozzie talks… (27th year!)

🎥 Great Legal Advice Video (Worth Watching)

Lawyer Stuart Ross and Ozzie discuss real estate issues people actually need help with, including:

• Federal Flipping Tax
• Principal Residence Exemption (PPT), UHT
• “Free GST” / First-Time Buyer changes
• Title insurance
• Co-signing a mortgage
• FREE questions

Or other videos: browse all podcasts here:
https://ozbuzz.ca/category/podcasts/

Or try Apple Podcasts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/oz-buzz-podcast/id1443249018

AGENDA — This Month

• Predictions, predictions, predictions

• Scary Crypto prediction

• Why seniors are being run over by AI
• How to select the best AI program for YOU
• UDI aces forecast
• US housing changes — vital
• What is a “K-shaped economy”?
• Housing starts actually went up in 2025
• The Numbers Study:
  • (a) 5-year November-to-November comparison
  • (b) 5-year annual summaries
• Old & new Books of the Month
• Interprovincial tariffs
• Questions and comments

US HOUSING CHANGES — Rumours… or Fact?

Why watch U.S. housing initiatives? Because as the U.S. goes, we often follow — especially on interest rates.

This year is different. Inflation is rising on both sides of the border, yet U.S. rates are heading down. Why? Trump wants them down.

Trump announced that Wall Street and large corporations (e.g., BlackRock) may no longer be allowed to buy single-family home inventory and must sell what they already own (pending). He then followed up with five more potential initiatives.

Now, is this a “big deal”? Maybe… maybe not.
Large corporations only hold about 3% of total housing stock (as of 2022).
But if roughly 300,000 homes come on the market in clustered areas, it will impact those local markets—likely meaning lower prices in those pockets.

Dear Reader, if you’re invested in the U.S.: watch where these holdings are, what they own, and when they sell. There were also more announcements after Davos:

Additional initiatives mentioned:

1. Property tax freeze on all houses under $300,000 (rumour only)
2. Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac:
   • Trump first floated selling a piece of these agencies via IPO
   • Now it appears he may force the agencies to buy $200B in mortgage bonds (with $3B already bought)
   • This could reshape mortgage financing and impact loan availability and cost (i.e., lower rates)
3. Proposals pending:
   a) Using federal land for housing
   b) Cutting regulatory barriers
   c) 50-year mortgages (Japan has “2 generation” 100-year terms)
   d) Revamp all housing finance rules
   e) Cap credit card rates at 10% for one year (wow)
   f) Allow 401(k) plans to be used for home deposits without harming retirement plans

✅ Major Point: Trump often makes announcements that never happen.
But housing is different — and in a mid-term election year, expect more of these ideas to become reality.

CANADA HOUSING STARTS vs. PROMISES

CMHC reports that Canadian housing starts rose 5.6% in 2025, but still far short of what’s required for affordability. CMHC bluntly says we are: “far from the target.”

Total starts were 259,028 last year, up from 245,367 the year before — still nowhere near the 480,000/year required for 10  years running.

The frustrating reality: Canada is BIG and DIVERSIFIED — so local markets matter more than anything. Look at these annual changes:

• Montreal: +58% year-over-year
• Ottawa-Gatineau: +12%
• Toronto: -31% collapse
• Vancouver: -3% (yes, 3%)

✅ Major Point: Local numbers matter more than anything else EVER.

Canada’s six largest markets posted a combined +3.9% year-over-year increase (from 2024), driven by record annual starts in: Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal

CMHC also notes this growth was boosted by a second consecutive year of record rental housing starts, making up just over half of all housing starts in Canada’s urban centres.

PREDICTIONS:

Last June, CMHC said up to 4.8 million new homes must be built over the next decade to restore 2019 affordability — about 480,000/year. Never happen! But …at least 2025 was an up year. Moving forward…

CMHC predicts housing starts will moderate in 2026 due to:

• Slower population growth , Rising vacancy rates, Climbing unsold inventories, Weak pre-construction sales activity in the GTA.

PREDICTION: Benjamin Tal (CIBC)

Tal calls the condo market in a “deep freeze.” He predicts:

• First half of 2026 will be very poor
• Second half of 2026 will be better

He calls 2026 a transition year: something bad in 2025 → something better by 2027.

He points to three positives:

1. Interest rates won’t go up (but may not go down until 2027)
2. Investment in AI will pick up
3. Government is spending ‘like there is no tomorrow’ — creating a fiscal push by 2027

✅ Major Point: uncertainty prevails, and with inflation a lagging indicator — rate cuts are unlikely.

PREDICTION: RBC CEO Dave McKay

After announcing RBC’s $20.4 billion profit, Dave McKay focused on outlook. He said he’s more excited about Canada’s growth outlook than he has been in a decade — a rare CEO positive.

His key points:

1. Investment mood is shifting — Canada is looking more attractive as we talk seriously about building major projects
2. Government + business appear more aligned — we may be seeing reduced friction and more willingness to push growth

✅ Major Point: The above could be trying to win “brownie points”… BUT his K-shaped economy comment matters: Some Canadians are thriving while others are getting squeezed — this is not a smooth recovery. He also nailed the killer reality (tariffs, geopolitics, trade tensions): Uncertainty kills investment, especially when companies can’t predict rules and costs.

REMINDER: Property Tax / Assessment Deadline — Jan 31

In BC, Jan 31 is the deadline to dispute your assessment. Other provinces have different dates.Remember: assessments reflect the Authority’s view of value as of July 2, 2025 — and your property may now be worth (a lot?) less. (so should be your taxes.)

✅ Check: BCassessment.ca + your realtor’s stats.
Note: If you miss the deadline, you cannot dispute for a year.
Now or never.

UDI PREDICTIONS & LAMENTS

A jam-packed house at the annual UDI bash.

Developer aces Michael Audain (Polygon), Eric Carlson (Anthem), Jon Stovell, and Olga Ilich shared cautious forecasts. Media ace Pete Ryznar (ryznarmedia.com), boutique developer icon Charan Sethi, and I took notes, debated, and compared views — along with 1,200 attendees. Here are the comments and predictions that stood out (in no particular order):

Overall Outlook

• 2025 was tough
• First half of 2026 still tough
• Large finished standing inventory
• No one is building
• Everyone piling into rentals
• Government must take a good portion of the blame
• Need more clarity on land claims
• Interest rates flat
• Rents down
• Prices down
• Great deals available right now

Snapshots: Rentals

• 50% of construction is now rentals
• Rental rates are dropping throughout the Lower Mainland
• Rental agencies sprout everywhere

Standing Inventory

• Overhang of 4,325 finished but unsold units

Government Policies (Major Theme)

• 30% of the cost of a new condo is fees
• Taxes have unintended consequences → no investors
• Unneeded taxes:
  • foreign buyers tax
  • flipping tax
• Step Code costs are becoming incredibly expensive
  ✅ It’s not just a supply issue anymore.

Some Government Initiatives Applauded

• Flexible DCI
• Deferral of fees
  (UDI likely deserved credit for several changes.)

BUT… the big problems remain

• Exorbitant fees at all levels
• Unjustifiable delays
• Too many rules
• Regulatory indecision + delays
• Needs simple, predictable rules
• Development has basically been stopped
• BC Government thinks it knows better — while being the problem
• Government treats housing like a sin with fees (fees are like a tax)
• Some municipal fees are higher than the cost of land

✅ Oft repeated major reality:
30% of a new property’s cost is government fees and services.
Young people pay for municipal infrastructure through their mortgage — that is not fair. How we charge for infrastructure must change. Financing provincial infrastructure must change.
Some even called government a politburo.

Land Claims Clarity

When you dictate the rights of 5 million people based on the obscure rights of 200,000 people… you stop people from buying and investing in anything.

Extra Snippets

• Slowdowns aren’t unusual
• Low rates gave us a long market run
• Presales not dead — just asleep
• Certainty is everything
• Uncertainty is the real killer
• Government must enact what it promises
  • example: first-time buyers still waiting for the GST initiative to be actually available

Outlook Summary

• The fog is clearing
• 2025 was a s****y year
• 2026 will be better, but not by much
• Prices coming down
• Interest rates stable — but “OK” compared to past

✅ Major Point: Everybody that is anybody in real estate was there. #1 issue: Uncertainty stops all buyers. Clarity is everything. Everything!

QUESTIONS & COMMENTS

CRYPTO PREDICTION

Next month we will focus on why quantum computers will make ALL THE DIFFERENCE ON EVERYTING!  Enormous unpredicted use of power. Unimaginable speed and potential. In fact…this one thing: Quantum computers will destroy crypto. In particular bitcoin etc. as it will be able to find your wallet codes in seconds!

Q: I keep hearing about the “K” economy. What is it?
A: A K-shaped economy is when the economy “recovers”… but not for everyone.

Picture the letter K:

Top arm (up): winners doing better and better

• higher-income households
• homeowners with assets
• big profitable companies
• tech/finance/professional services
• investors

Bottom arm (down): people/systems falling behind

• renters facing higher costs
• lower/middle-income workers
• small businesses with rising expenses
• people with debt and no assets
• squeezed industries
• AI firings

✅ One-sentence definition:
A K-shaped economy means the gap between “winners” and “strugglers” widens even while headlines say “recovery.”

Q: Looked up Mike Vance. Major brain. Thanks for sharing.
A: Welcome. His “Think Out of the Box” still sits on my desk… after 30 years.

Q: I adore your timeless truths. I say “I love you” all the time — but not with meaning to the important people. That will change. I love you, Ozzie.
A: A member once said his one “I love you” (with feeling) stopped his divorce. Love is powerful if we feel it and mean it. Love is brave. Love is vulnerable. Saying it is a kind of courage.

Q: You talked about 118,000 wiped out in a week in crypto liquidations/margin calls. I can’t find it. Are you exaggerating?
A: That was several months ago. Quick look at difference:

• A stock margin call is your broker warning you your equity dropped — you may have time to respond.
• A crypto liquidation is automatic — positions can be force-closed in seconds during 24/7 volatility.

Examples: CoinGlass has shown:

• ~92,509 traders liquidated in 24 hours, ~$291M total liquidations
• On major “bloodbath” days: 404,000 traders liquidated, ~$1.7B wiped in 24 hours

✅ Why care?
When running large RE companies and in general for some 50-years, my target buyer market has always been age group of 23–45… and I fear too many are now stuck in the “easy money” crypto casino, losing their future home-buying power.

Q: Forget Trump’s tariffs. Do away with interprovincial tariffs inside Canada first.
A: Agreed — but coordination is brutal.
3 levels of government, thousands of regulations. Even when everyone agrees, harmonizing rules across 10 provinces + 3 territories is slow, legal-heavy, and messy.

Bright light? We have started: Canada passed the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act (June 26, 2025) to reduce federal barriers and remove federal exceptions under the CFTA.

✅ Fact: We can reduce interprovincial barriers — but we can’t wipe them out instantly.

Q: I loved your piece on energy and the need for gas. I bought the stocks. I’m richer. Give me more.
A: Hmm. More what? Reality: We are anti-gas. Our cities don’t allow gas in high rises anymore. The new Step Code program is a “thrilla in Vancouvaaa”… meaning more cost, more cost, more cost.

Q: Loved your Opportunities section. Where have you been all my life?
A: Haha. I’ve been here all along. I refuse to tell you how long.

Q: I see your quote about the Paradox of Tolerance everywhere. So true.
A: That’s Austrian philosopher Karl Popper:
“A tolerant society must not tolerate those who seek to destroy tolerance.”
Also revisit Douglas Murray’s books, and his + Jordan Peterson’s video discussion on the Paradox of tolerating Muslims that want to kill Chrstians.

Q: I’m 68. Not old. But I hate this new world. My bank won’t let me talk to anybody in person. I hate AI.
A: You are not alone. Seniors are being hit hardest by AI—not because they can’t learn, but because daily life is being redesigned around apps, portals, passwords, chatbots, and automated systems that assume you are fast, confident, and always online.

That means:

• help is harder to reach
• scams get more convincing
• customer service becomes arguing with a robot

Bottom line: stocks still have humans — AI systems don’t “talk it through,” they just process you.

Q: Good advice: take a day off and learn the AI you prefer. But how do I compare? Help.

A: Good point. Here are slides from a recent presentation I made at the Action Group:

Major Point: Good revisits. 80/20 do first. BUT take that day…study AI on all the above websites and the books website….and then decide on one! I promise within 2 weeks, you will never be the same!

THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS

CANADA NUMBERS A brief romp across the  county

Toronto
Sales SF       – 02%   Price: -06%
Sales Condo -11%    Price: -07% (905 – 10%)
Listings       + 18%

Major Point: (Compare these numbers to the clickbait ‘ crash videos’ about Toronto. Yes, tough new condo market…the rest? You be the judge!

Calgary (December)
Sales SF        -4%
Condo         -24%
Inventory up 20%
Price: SF $726,000 = -3% . Condo $303,000 = -7%

Major Point: Calgary slowing sales. Inventory building.

Edmonton
SF average prices up 5% . Condo prices fell 5%
Overall Sales fell 21%. Active listings increased 29%

BRITISH COLUMBIA
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 4,271 residential unit sales were recorded in December 2025, down 5.9 per cent. The average MLS^® residential price in BC in December 2025 was down 5.6 per cent at $952,061 compared to $1,008,513 in December 2024.  Check your area on this BC chart from BCREA.

Vancouver
Sales Detached         – 12%…            Price     – 04% ($2,049,000)
Sales condos            – 11%.,,            Price     -12% ($720,000)
Fraser Valley
Sales Detached         – 01%,,,            Price   – 09%
Sales condos           -18% ,,,   Price   – 06%

December SF sales are down 12% OVER LAST DECEMBER, they are still higher than December 2023 and 2022. Vancouver SF active listings are up 4%, SF new listings are now UP by 17%. Vancouver prices are down 4 % in SF and 12 % in condominiums.

VANCOUVER AND FRASER VALLEY 

Here is a 5-year DECEMBER  2025 over DECEMBER  2024/2023/2022/2021 comparison.

VANCOUVER

Single Family

Total                            DEC 2025        DEC 2024        %         DEC 2023      DEC 2022      DEC 2021

• Sales 433                  492                  -12%     374                  372                  794
• Price 2,049,000         2,138,000         -04%    2,065,000        1,983,000         2,169,000
• Active Listings 4,304                4,150                +04%   3,471               3,068                2,406
• New Listings 547                 466                  +17%   418                  383                583

Condo

• Sales                793                  891                  -11 %    720                  703                  1,462
• Price                720,100 814,500            -12%    801,000           764,000 760,300
• Active Listings  4,819                4,755                +01%  3,869               3,293                2,536
• New Listings     950                  900                  +06%  606                  1,063               1, 235 ============================================================

Major Point:  Vancouver SF price in DECEMBER is down 4% at 2,049,000 achieved in December 2024. (But well below the $2,302,000 high achieved in March 2022 and Summer 2024. )

 The Vancouver and Fraser Valley Real Estate Boards have the BEST current statistics.
Get your professional realtor give you the numbers for the sub-area in which YOU are interested.

FRASER VALLEY – Single Family

Total                DEC 2025     DEC 2024           %        DEC 2023     DEC 2022          DEC 2021

Sales                349                  353                  -01%    299                  259                  698
Price                1,532000          1,692,000         -09%   1,442,000        1,388,000         1,739,000
Active Listings  2,963                2,918                +02%   2,433               2,009                1,107
New Listings     479                  434                  +10%    293                 246                  515

CONDO FV

Sales                255                  311                  -18%     278                  217                  541

Price                505,400 539,300 -06%    543,000           496,300 550,700

Active Listings  1,711               1,786                -04%   1,244               1,026                391

New Listings     363                  412                  -12%    291                  261                  336

Major Point:

Fraser Valley. SF and condo sales are well down over 2024. But NEW condo listings are also down by 12% and active listings by 4%. (No panic listings by sellers).

YEAR END SNAPSHOT – Total full 1-year sales and average prices for each of the full year of 2025/2024/2023/21022/2021

VANCOUVER SF      

2025                2024                %         2023                2022                2021

Sales    6,735               7,555               -11%    7,572               8,391               14,150

Price    2,064,000        2,172,000        -05%    2,162,000        2,176,000        1,975,000

VANCOUVER CONDO

Sales    12,061             13,560             -11%    13,691             15,584             21,765

Price    787,000           814,000           -03%    804,000           805,400           724,000\

FRASER VALLEY SF

Sales    4,574               5,460               -16%    5,449               5,723               12,187

Price    1,519,600        1,551,000        -03%    1,535,000        1,675,000        1,495.000

FRASER VALLEY CONDO

Sales    3,556               4,477               -21%    4,641               4,842               7,352

Price    539,100           558,000           -04%    546,000           568,700           480,000

As always, we say that there is no best deal market, there are only the best deals that you negotiate! Think of making a DEAL OF A LIFETIME! THINK STINKBID!

And in January 2026 you CAN EVEN MORE  negotiate.

Psychologically sellers read about pending crashes, AI to .com comparisons, new condominium market crunches, new home taxes….NO wonder some will really be motivated to negotiate!

Hire experienced realtors (MUST), quality experienced mortgage brokers (not all brokers have access to all lenders) and real estate-oriented lawyers.

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