Oz Buzz #10 – Introducing the Oz Buzz Podcast

October 10th, 2018

THINGS YOU OUGHT TO KNOW

Business

We have an innate belief that big companies are more likely to have the answers or make fewer mistakes than we individuals do. Just remember: big companies and board of directors are humans, and humans make mistakes. The difference of big board humans and you & I is that if they screw up, they really screw up! For instance, the board of IBM eight years ago made a decision that cost IBM $8bn in one year. General Electric just wrote off this week $23bn worth of mistakes. On a 14-man board, that is more than $1.6bn PER DIRECTOR! ADVICE: Don’t beat yourself up! Babe Ruth was the home run king… He was also the strike out king!! Keep swinging that bat!

International

In Germany, diesel engines are being curtailed! All cars over five years of age must get an upgrade to their diesel engines. A lot of negative articles are appearing, all aimed at getting people from diesel to electric. ADVICE: I believe that this will be the future so, unless you have a truck, don’t buy diesel!

China

Wow! We said last year that the ‘life time appointment‘ of China’s president may have unintended (or actually intended) consequences. We speculated that a lot of money would leave China as people/businesses etc. are scared of absolute power having experienced it. Obviously, we and they were right! With the falling yuan in addition, Chinese money flowed out at a new record pace. Now China cracks down on ‘disloyalty’. As in a) making statements somewhat – or even a little bit critical of the central government, and b) taking money out! Large corporations are ordered to cut back, individuals are admonished and the coup de grace? Arresting the head of Interpol (first Asian Interpol chief in Paris) for ‘disloyalty’ and now – listen to this: Cracking down at airports and harbours on people that leave with a lot of expensive jewelry, etc. My, my Trump work on China’s currency is working. And, now two new reports of crashing real estate markets in tier 1 and 2 markets. Expect a lot of new buyers? Only if the money is already out.

Italy

Since 2011, Jurock’s Real Estate Insider (JREI) has repeatedly made the point not to worry about Greece, but rather worry about Italy and France. Under Italy’s new government, the debt load is so glaring that it has simply informed the ECB that it cannot live by the rules the previous Italian government had agreed to. These rules would be forcing Italy to comply with the rules that apply to every other European nation. Italy feels it is a special case. Why do I tell you this? Italy’s finance minister just said: “If we had our own currency, we could get out of our debt problem very easily”. What? MAJOR POINT: Why is that important? If Italy leaves the euro (because it can devalue the lira but not the euro) it would be the forerunner of a total collapse of the EU.

Major Point: The ECB is Italy’s biggest bond buyer and would stand to lose the most. Note: The ECB is mostly funded by Northern Europe. BTW Italy’s ten-year bond just hit 3.8% – the highest since 2011.

Canada News

BC’s LNG plant was announced as the largest project in Canadian history. The NDP approved, the Green Party did not. Will the Green Party topple the NDP government? No, it loves being the king maker too much! It also wants to wait for the proportional vote this Fall in the hope that as a party they can become a force. ADVICE: A lot of readers want to rush to buy Kitimat. There are good reasons to be made … BUT study the plans for labour camps (cruise ship with accommodations in the harbour) for the long-term hold. Also, we have been this close before. Do not underestimate the organized.

Quebec election: bullish

NAFTA: As we predicted in OzBuzz #5and at our Outlook Conferences, the Canadian dollar would benefit from a NAFTA deal – and it has. It went up approximately 2.5 cents. However, we stand by our prediction that over the next few months the Canadian dollar will fall.

Interest rates

ADVICE: We have been predicting higher and higher rates in newsletter and conferences for 2 years.

Rates are at a 7-year high! We also mentioned that if the 10-year US rate breaks 3.11 percent watch out … get out of stocks and heed my Landrush advice (as of October 9 the rate stands at 3.22%): The older you are get mostly into cash!  Re-read out items on Black Swans – Libor rates – huge debt, and markets become the stories peoples tell about them.

THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS

The Vancouver REBGV reported sales of 1,595 – a 44% decrease from last year and a 17% decrease from August. Also, last month’s sales were 36% below the 10-year September average. Please look at the numbers, they tell the story. To note: Vancouver East condo listings up 122%! All Vancouver active condo listings up 75%.

In the Fraser Valley active apartment listings are also up by 101% with a 42% decline in sales. However, while prices in Vancouver are now in negative territory, the Fraser Valley still reports a 22% increase in condo prices. In fact, in Central Surrey, the average condo price is up 33% (however active listings are up 141%!). We show the highs of 2016 – just to get an idea of that market versus today.

THE NUMBERS SEPTEMBER

Vancouver condo listings up 75%, sales down 40%, prices down 2%.

West side detached home price down 22.1%, but westside condo prices are still up 2%.

The decline in sales and the increase in listings are across the board. It also depends what you measure – the Condo price in August 2018 was $712,500. Valley condo listings are up 102% – sales down 40 percent – prices still up 18%. 

Major Point: This downturn will continue… Markets become the stories people tell about them … and they are all negative now. As a buyer: Rejoice … realtors have time, multiple offers are dead, and owners look at offers! As the owner: ‘Look at 21 ways to make your home sell faster’. Free at www.jurock.com

BOOK

I kinda like the ‘The 5 Second Rule’. I saw author Mel Robbins on a TED talk where the talk headlined: ‘Transform your Life, Work, and Confidence with Everyday Courage’ … Stories of famous moments … and a simple tool to increase productivity, collaboration, and engagement.

USB ROCKS – AUDIOBOOK

Too busy to read? Want to listen to 2 of Ozzie’s books!

1. Real Estate Action 2.0
2. What, Where, When and How to buy real estate in Canada!
   No worries: I am not reading it. Haha! We have a bright young man with great intonation doing the honours. His name is Brady Nelson. You will hear a lot more about him in future.
   The neat thing about audio books on USB is, that the USB reader shows the list of chapters – for easy scrolling. New cars (since 2015) all have USB readers installed.

RADIO

Ozzie is on air with Michael Campbell every Saturday on CKNW 980 sometime between 8:30AM – 10 AM. The Hot Property that we discuss there, is available by subscribing to the Ozzie Dispatch at Jurock.com

YOUTUBE.com/Jurockvideo

HOT PROPERTY

1. Vancouver – West End – $649,000 – 1 bed, bath condo in the west end, quiet street, fully renovated, rentals allowed, pet friendly building.  Lowest maintenance fees in the West End – $221.45 per month! Cashflows positive $284.10 with 35% down. Price reduced by $75,000. Motivated seller.

2.  Vancouver – City Hall  – $1,799,999 – 7 bed, 3 bath, 3 kitchen (3 full suites) on the west side (Cambie/city hall area). Room for a lane way in the back! Cashflows positive $533.64with 20% down. Motivated seller, price reduced by $100,000.

3.  Vancouver – Commercial Drive – $1,395,000 – 5 bed, 4 bath, 4 kitchen, (4 suite home) Commercial drive area, room for a laneway in the back! Cashflows$541.23 per month with 20% down!

LIVE LIFE LARGE

Look after your body…
If you do not,
where are you going to live?
I eat for vitality, longevity, and health
I work an exercise program design for energy, stamina and strength
I can and will do my program
I will grow into my future best

 Have a great week and grow into your future best self!