Oz Buzz 109: Ozzie Talks About Vancouver Island, 6-plex On SF Lots

July 22, 2025

New Videos:

1. Ozzie chats with VI retirement Ace Ian Thompson. Secret downsizing: Vancouver Island prices as low as: Patio homes: $600,000. House $850,000. Older Condo $350,000. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22VyP71iQlo

2. Ozzie chats with Bill Laidler. Get rich? Put a 6 plex on your SF lot! But do it right! Learn the tricks, the know- how. Do it fast!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mc9EM95ORQA

3. Ozzie does 23 new short videos: YES! Habits have the human! HUMANS form habits and HABITS form their FUTURE! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLJ9o71BIQw&t=8s

Comments, thoughts welcome
Watch, click “like” and “subscribe.”
YOUTUBE.COM/JUROCKVIDEO

AGENDA

• OZZIE TALKS ABOUT VANCOUVER ISLAND, 6-PLEX ON SF LOTS
• WHAT TRULY IS AND HOW USEFUL IS A “CAP RATE”
• BUYING IN MEXICO
• STAB AT INTEREST RATES
•  THE NUMBERS STUDY:
  a) 3 ‘NUMBERS’ GRAPHS – RUNNING TOTAL SF SALES DOWN 60%!
  b) HIGHEST PRICE ACHIEVED (AGAINST THIS MONTH)
  c) 5 – YEAR JUNE TO JUNE COMPARISON
• WHAT OZZIE SAID/PREDICTED IN 2009
• INFLATION/ECONOMY
• ONLINE AUCTIONS
• QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Questions, Questions

Q: Hi, I have been a lurker for some time now.  This is my first post! We have a mortgage renewal coming up in November for our principal residence, which includes two rental suites. We’re planning to be away on an overlanding trip with our family for a year, starting in November, so we want to ensure we make the best decision for our mortgage. Given that interest rates seem to be rising now, but potentially drop by June 2026, we’re considering whether to lock in a shorter fixed term or go with a variable rate. We’d love your expert opinion on the best approach in this situation. Thanks so much, and I look forward to your insights! 
A: Great to take trips! Love it! Opinion is the right question, because that is all anyone can offer right now. July 30 is the next BOC overnight rate announcement … and there is little consensus. Fact is bond rates are rising and so are long term rates. Here is a July 18 summary of national best rates on ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates

Major Point on rates: Chatting with mortgage Ace Kyle Green (Kyle@greenmortgageteam.ca): “Currently the markets are predicting a ~.2% per year rise in fixed rates, so a 5-yr fixed is looking like it would edge out a shorter-term fixed rate and also the variable rate at this time. This is based on the BoC reducing it’s likelihood of decreasing rates this year to only about .25% and another .25% – .5% next year possibly. 

“Generally for most borrowers the risk of going variable is not worth the potential savings, so most clients are just taking a 5yr fixed and not thinking about it.”

Best 5-year fixed? Kyle: “4.29% or better but there is some upward pressure on rates at the moment so that might change. I’ve gotten 4.04% on a few files recently!”

Q: Liked your piece on Realtors and realtor interview. It really is the realtor that makes all the difference. I had my place for sale for 7 months and no bites. Interviewed a determined realtor lady who told me she wouldn’t take the listing. Why? She says: “You want yesterday’s price. There is no such thing!” I told her, what if I was going to be right? She says: “You can be right or you can be sold”. I thought about it , listened to her and have $1,100,000 in the bank. Not $1,250,000, but what a feeling! I keep going online looking at it. Why did I wait so long…
A: You are a comedian. I salute your decision. 

Q: LOVED YOUR GOLD VERSUS REAL ESTATE! EVERYONE FORGETS LEVERAGE AND WHAT TIME FRAME YOU MEASURE. SIMPLE IN REAL ESTATE…NOT SO IN GOLD.
A: Agreed. True story.

Q: YOU MENTIONED ONLINE AUCTIONS. HOW DO I GET ON THEM?
A: Ritchie Bros and others have online auctions in Canada, both live and ongoing (bidding open for a month or so). You have to check out procedure and particular online auctions we never heard of… Check em’ out! “caveat emptor”.  Here is one according to ChatGPT in business since 2007. There are others YOU MUST CHECK OUT! Auction Network bid.auctionnetwork.com is a company based in Tulsa, Oklahoma that operates a 24-hour internet and cable television channel dedicated to live and online auctions. (There are ‘court ordered auctions’ – opening bids: $25,000.)

Q: I AM CONFUSED ABOUT CAP RATES. AREN’T THEY THE VITAL WAY TO ASSESS PROPERTY VALUES? BUT ONCE I ADD THE MORTGAGE AND OTHER COSTS, I NEVER GET THE RATES REALTORS ADVERTISE. 
A: You are talking about commercial properties (income producing properties) as an asset. You do not include mortgages and CAPITAL expenditures. etc. Here is how it works: Formula: 

Cap Rate (%) = (Net Operating Income ÷ Current Market Value) × 100
Net Operating Income (NOI)? Annual income from the property (e.g., rent) minus operating expenses (e.g., maintenance, property taxes, insurance). This excludes mortgage payments and capital expenditures.

Current Market Value? The property’s current market value or purchase price, arrived at by comparing recent sales of similar properties.

Note:

Higher Cap Rate? Indicates a potentially higher return but may come with increased risk.
Lower Cap Rate? Suggests a potentially safer investment with lower returns.

Major Point: Ok, having said all that. I don’t like to rely on cap rates to invest. I think a cap rate is good for knowing what a city’s real estate values are.
If Toronto’s cap rate is 8% and Winnipeg 5%, I get an idea on the relative strength of each commercial market. But if I compare an 8% rate of a small shopping centre with a month-to-month laundromat and an accounting office tenants to a 5% rate of a similar shopping centre with a 10-year lease
left on a government liquor store, etc. … the cap rate is irrelevant. In apartment buildings we took the realtor’s cap rate as a rental property and compared similar suites that were selling as condos. We found there was often a 30%-40% difference. We could buy it at a cap rate price, strata title
the building and after all costs sell it immediately at a profit. The cap rate based on just current income did not help the seller one bit.

Q: I AM LOOKING AT BUYING PROPERTY IN XXXX, MEXICO (I ALREADY HAVE OTHER PROPERTY THERE). ALTHOUGH I HAVE MONEY IN MY COMPANY AND PERSONAL, I WOULD LIKE TO TAKE OUT A LOAN FROM MY $1 MILLION HOUSE. THE BANK IS OFFERING ME A HELOC LOAN. DO YOU RECOMMEND THIS TYPE OF A LOAN? THANK YOU
A: The reason that I have been a long time against this type of loan (even though they work for certain situations) it is temptation in a bottle. Here are some pros and con:

PRO: 1. A HELOC functions like a revolving credit line. 2.You make interest only payments (low)3. Often (not in a rising market) lower interest rates compared to unsecured loans. (There are also many who preach that you can use the funds for investment purposes and slowly over time make the loan tax deductible.

CON: Variable Interest Rates

1. HELOCs typically have variable interest rates, rates can rise (And have dramatically last 4 years). 2. If your financial plan does not work you could lose your house (it’s the collateral). 3. Invariably people use the Heloc like a free draw for money and overborrow. Substantial costs to set up as well.
BUT you seem well heeled, well organized and perhaps have the right discipline. However, if you ask me, I would not invest in Mexico. I lived there for a year. We understand the laws in USA and Canada ,,.,that’s where I like to invest! Rent in Mexico.  Mexico has huge problems with crime and corruption. Also the “natives” are restless and many coastal areas have had liens slapped on them.

“Filling out a mortgage application is like going on a first date. You promise to be honest, but you still hide your crazy.”

COMMENTS

• Thanks for all the comments and questions. But I am getting overwhelmed. If it continuous I will charge for each question. Haha!
• NOTE: I TRY TO GET TO ALL THE QUESTIONS. If you have a question, put this in the subject line:  ‘Subject: Ozbuzz Question” If you are a subscriber, I will answer. If I did not answer, send it again.

Also look for answers at Youtube.com/jurockvideo

SUMMARY OUTLOOK  / FORECASTS

I had one question with a ‘tongue in cheek’ finger waving:

… Ozzie, it is easy to predict the market going down or up looking at the past. It is also easy to tout principles of location, timing and trend without giving an example. What does that actually mean? … 

I would call this person lazy. Read my stuff. Unlike many analysts I am actually on record. I have written and or been featured in 8 books. Countless videos and podcasts and speeches. Essentially ALL – without exception – featured the Macro and Local principles I apply to buying/selling real estate, which never changed. This newsletter/blog based all forecasts on the principles. Had you paid for the subscription 1993 – 2017 you were over and over admonished to study and act on them. And even here in the still free Ozbuzz I devoted issues to them. They have been online for 5 years.

Macro Principles
Inflation or deflation? OzBuzz 39
Timing? OzBuzz 40
Trend? OzBuzz 41
Cycles? OzBuzz 42

Interesting – at least to me – is revisiting Page 15 in my “Real Estate in Canada” book, published in 2009 – when we were in or right after the big economic crisis of 2008.

Under the item “Appreciating Appreciation”… I wrote “Home ownership has been the single largest factor in the accumulation of wealth for the average…etc.”

I made some interesting comparisons to the period 2009 and 1960 (22,600 percent increase on DP) and then wrote: “…We live in the most unreported inflation in the world’s history. We will go thru the up cycles and down cycles… But you must be on the conveyor belt. If you are not, you are going to be left behind so far that it will be financially disastrous”. I also mentioned the average SF price being $900,000. I then went on to combine appreciation with leverage…and there you have it. That book is still available from Ozbuzz.ca/products and the USB audible version is available there, as well as ‘Real Estate Action 2.0’.

Today, the average SF price 16 years later is 2.1 mill. We live still in a huge financial hard asset inflation (we print more than ever and never will pay it back), but timing to sell is not optimal. It is however getting optimal for buying…as we have been preaching.

HOT PROPERTY

Stinkbid time!

1. Presale condo, 1 bed in Surrey in xxx development unit xxx, 499 square feet. Seller will take $379,900. This is a loss of $49k. Contract price is $415,900.
2. Presale condo, 1 bed in Surrey in xxx top floor, corner unit. Seller will take $ 424,900; this is a loss of $105k to the seller. Contract price is $529,900.
3. Suited character house on a 31,000 square foot lot in Maple Ridge. Price has been reduced from $1,349,900 to $1,174,900. Below tax assessed value. Email Oz@jurock.com for realtor contact.

Remember: You are reading Ozzie’s opinion, not advice! And, yes, I have lots of opinions! But use only your personal professional lawyer/realtor/accountant/ to make any personal investment.

THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS

TORONTO

• Inventory Surge: Active listings in the GTA have reached the highest level in over 30 years, leading to increased options for buyers and downward pressure on prices
• Buyer’s Market: With SALES TO NEW LISTING RATIO (SNLRs) below 40% in both the GTA and City of Toronto, it’s a clear buyer’s market continued. 

CALGARY

• Active listings for SF up 75% … for condos 87%!
• Prices down somewhat in Condos -3%. SF 1% but further weakening.

EDMONTON

• Sales: 2,877 residential homes sold 1.2 % year-over-year increase compared to June 2024
• New Listings: 4,215 homes listed 15.8% rise over June 2024
• Inventory: 6,768 residential properties active on the market 15% higher year-over-year.
• Average Sale Price: All property types: $464,955, up 5.9% YoY but weakening area by area.

BRITISH COLUMBIA

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports 7,162 residential unit sales in June 2025 … that is 23 per cent lower than the ten-year June average The average residential price in BC in June 2025 was down 4.2 per cent at $954,065 compared to $995,614 in June 2024. Note: Vancouver is down 9% Vancouver Island up 18%. Here is a quick Romp by BCREA…

From BCREA – study your local area, hire a local professional.

VANCOUVER AND FRASER VALLEY

3 ways to look at the numbers:

1. Looking at a full year ‘rolling total’ of the last 4 years
2. Comparing JUNE prices and sales to the highest ever achieved
3. Comparing JUNE sales/listings to the JUNE of 2025/24/23/22/21

FRASER VALLEY INCREDIBLE 12 mos. RUNNING TOTAL (SF) DOWN 65%!!!
JUNE  30, 2021 – JUNE  30 2021  sales   13,265
JUNE  30, 2024 – JUNE  30 2025   sales  4,745

Major Point: Dramatic 5-year snapshot on crashing sales (SF DOWN 65% OVER 2021). Steady prices in both condo and SF sectors.

2. ALL-TIME HIGHS ACHIEVED: (Comparing different months is only meaningful if you want to know ABSOLUTE HIGHS.)

HIGHEST PAST MONTHLY PRICE AND SALES COMPARED TO JUNE 2025. 

3. VANCOUVER SF AND CONDOS

Sales and Prices of JUNE over last JUNE. Well below the 10-year average.

VANCOUVER: Here is a 5-year month of JUNE 2025 over the month of JUNE 2024/2023/2022/2021 comparison.

Major Point Vancouver:

Condo – New Listings UP +07% y-o-y in JUNE! Active Listings up 15%
SF Sales – Down 5% from 2024 and very sharply below 2021 (more than -50%).
Price? – SF down 8% over JUNE – $266,000
NOTE: – Sales down y-o-y as well as active listings up across the board!

FRASER VALLEY: Here is a 5-year JUNE 2025 over JUNE 2024/2023/2022/2021 comparison.

Major Point:

FV – SF Active listings, up 17% in JUNE
FV – Condo Active Listings up 28% in JUNE
FV – Sales down SF – 05%! Condo sales down 14% over 2024. Way down over 2021 – 61%!

NEWS: The BC Provincial Government announced July 3 that 75% of development fees can be deferred to occupancy permit (or 4 years whichever comes first). 25% of fees remain payable on building permit. It will help the big boys somewhat, but small developers … not.

MAJOR, MAJOR POINT: 

As always, we say that there is no best deal market, there are only the best deals that you negotiate! And in 2025 you CAN negotiate. Hire experienced realtors, quality experienced mortgage brokers (not all brokers have access to all lenders) and real estate-oriented lawyers. For recommendation ask Ozzie.

WANT TO PARTICIPATE?

Go to realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory at bcred.ca

OZZIE’S YOUTUBE CHANNEL

You can watch all videos and podcasts on my YouTube channel at youtube.com/jurockvideo. It is a great way to check on what I said 10 years ago.

Moneytalks Podcast

Ozzie, Michael Campbell, Michael Levy and Victor Adair and guests are now on podcasts every week: mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/ (See Victor Adair’s Trading Desk notes! victoradair.ca)

OZBUZZ.CA

Why subscribe if I can just go to the website at ozbuzz.ca? Hot properties and the latest podcasts are DISTRIBUTED TO SUBSCRIBERS FIRST– posted 2 weeks later on website.

HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?

You can reach me at info@ozbuzz.ca with all of your questions, comments and concerns regarding the Oz Buzz publication.