“There are two kinds of statistics, the kind you look up and the kind you make up.”
OZ BUZZ #12 plus Hot Properties
- West Van: $300,000 price reduction
- Edmonton: $950,000 assessed, pay $780,000 – only $50,000 down
- Chilliwack: Better than new -could be rent to own
“There are two kinds of statistics, the kind you look up and the kind you make up.” ― Rex Stout, Death of a Doxy
#OZBUZZ #HOTPROPERTIES #REALESTATENUMBERS #MORTGAGERATES #LIVELIFELARGE #HABITSHAVETHEHUMAN #YOUTUBEJUROCKVIDEO
Today’s issue:
Vote NO. Bring ridesharing NOW. The Numbers tell the story like nothing else. New Binge show. Ozzie on air.
OZZIE SAYS:
VOTE NO! Vote No on BC proportional representation.
RIDESHARING (IN BC). Bring in ride sharing now! Write your MLA. Check out ridesharing.com
WESTBANK’S OAKRIDGE PLANS: 2,500 condos on 29 acres! Second largest development in North America. A second downtown. $10 billion investment. Go and see Ian’s dream!
MERKEL says she will not run again. Populism is winning everywhere.
MORTGAGE RATES will continue to rise.
(SOME) VANCOUVER PARKING CHANGES. I salute the city bringing in a 4-hour parking option after 6 PM (at $1 per hour in Coal harbour is much appreciated!).
Comments From You
- ‘Love ‘Rita’
- Thanks for ‘21 days to make your home sell faster’
- I missed the numbers. Can you make them closer to month end? (Look today.)
- Love Simon Sivek. I see his millennials, but don’t like the blame he puts on corps.
QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS, COMMENTS
Q: Ozzie, don’t you think “stock market crash” is a bit rash for a pullback of less than 10% in a market which has more than quadrupled? I enjoy your updates, though find comments like these rob from the credibility you bring to the balance of your research. Food for thought and keep the real estate advice coming!
A: Most appreciated comment. We don’t want to go overboard. I also like your admonition about sticking to real estate. Ha-ha. Maybe, but OzBuzz is opinion. A trillion loss in October – some stocks down 20%. 76 percent of S&P is in correction territory. What would you call it?
Q: You mentioned programmed trading on one of your Ozbuzz. What is it?
A: This is the proverbial ‘canary in the coal mine’. The Black Swan. Computers have been programmed to sell or buy at a certain point for a certain amount. That’s why you see the early morning and late afternoon swings. A trading algorithm might buy a portfolio of 70 stocks over the first hour or last hour of the day. Hedge fund managers or mutual fund traders use untold billions of program trading to execute large-volume trades. It reduces their risk … but not yours. If the US continues its QT too fast – putting pressure on liquidity – that together with the algorithms could become the Black Swan of unprecedented proportion.
Q: The strength of your opinions (Europe) surprises me. You should write for The Sun. No one has opinions anymore, other than the Globe and Mail.
A: Thanks. Been there, done that.
Q: I was at the Surrey Board of Trade ‘Developers Forum’ on October 30. I liked your style and your banter with Geller. One of your slides (you did not talk about it) stated: “Recession in 2020”. Is that your call?
A: Yes
Q: I see a lot of ‘goodies’ offered by developers. Is that going to continue?
A: There are ‘incentives to buy now’ valued at between $30,000 to $60,000 available on several developments. It will intensify further until the market changes … maybe late spring – summer next year.
Q: The market is 40% down in sales in Langley. Should I take my property off the market?
A: No, just make sure that it gets in the 60% that sells! You never, never stop marketing, ‘squeaky wheel’ your realtor and price it right.
Q: Our finance minister says they will drop their gradual approach? What does that man? Higher rates?
A: Yes.
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS
The sales decline continues. You may have heard that volume from September to October increased a bit, but that is irrelevant to us. We compare ourselves against October 2017 (and April 2016 previous highs). This month the fine Vancouver REBGV reported sales of 1,979 – a 39% decrease from last year. Also, last month’s sales were 29% below the 10-year October average. Please look at the numbers, they tell the story. To note: Vancouver East condo listings up 122%! All Vancouver active condo listings up 85%.
In the Fraser Valley active apartment listings are also up. However, while prices in much of Vancouver are now in negative territory, the Fraser Valley still reports a 12% increase in condo prices. (However, sales are down 62% in condos and 46 percent down in SF homes.). We show the highs of 2016 – just to get an idea of how low we have fallen since then.
THE NUMBERS – TORONTO
Major Point: Toronto has not reported at press time.
THE NUMBERS – CALGARY
| 2018 | 2017 | % | |
| Sales | 1,323 | 1,467 | -10% |
| Price | 468,000 | 475,100 | -01% |
| Active Listings | 7,363 | 6,480 | +13% |
Major Point: Prices even for houses and condos on lower volume and higher inventory.
THE NUMBERS – EDMONTON
| 2018 | 2017 | % | |
| Sales | 1,155 | 1,306 | -13% |
| Price SF | 425,800 | 430,300 | -01% |
| Price Condos | 222,000 | 241,900 | -08% |
| Active Listings | 8,363 | 6,690 | +09% |
Major Point:Condo price declines sharpens. Sales down, listings up.
THE NUMBERS – KELOWNA
| 2018 | 2017 | % | |
| Sales | 403 | 561 | -28% |
| Price SF | 667,500 | 472,400 | -01% |
| Price Condos | 348,400 | 318,800 | +09% |
| Active Listings | 3,197 | 2,457 | +30% |
Major Point:Kelowna turned the corner, down in sales, up in listings. Why the tax??
THE NUMBERS – KAMLOOPS
| 2018 | 2017 | % | |
| Sales | 233 | 281 | -21% |
| Price SF (RECORD!) | 406,900 | 369,000 | +16% |
| Active Listings | 1,056 | 1,067 | 00% |
Major Point: Highest sale price ever, lowest listings since October 2007.
| VANCOUVER (Total) | 2018 | 2017 | % | APRIL 2016 |
| Sales | 1,979 | 3,027 | -36% | 5,193 |
| Price | 1,032,400 | 1,074,100 | -04% | 1,108,000 |
| Active Listings | 13,658 | 10,063 | +36% | 8,968 |
Major Point: The decline in sales and increase in listings sharpens – in some areas dramatically!
| VANCOUVER DET. | ||||
| Sales | 644 | 952 | -32% | 1,969 |
| Price | 1,628,100 | 1,803,500 | -11% | 1,812,900 |
| Active Listings | 6,567 | 6,163 | +08% | 4,485 |
| CONDO | ||||
| Sales | 988 | 1,529 | -36% | 2,116 |
| Price | 708,500 | 685,700 | +01% | 527,500 |
| Active Listings | 4,776 | 2,581 | +85% | 3,488 |
| Days on Market | 39 | 28 | +35% |
| SUBURBS | ||||
| Westside SF | 3,545,100 | 4,467,000 | -21% | Sales -46% |
| Westside Condo | 1,008,400 | 1,005,300 | 00% | Sales -31% |
| Eastside SF | 1,542,000 | 1,682,000 | -08% | Sales -25% |
| Eastside Condo | 661,500 | 652,000 | +01% | Sales -20% |
| Coquitlam SF | 1,143,400 | 1,293,000 | -12% | Sales -49% |
| Coquitlam Condo | 559,400 | 523,000 | +07% | Sales -46% |
| Richmond SF | 1,649,300 | 1,909,300 | -14% | Sales -37% |
| Richmond Condo | 591,900 | 558,900 | +05% | Sales -39% |
The decline in sales and the increase in listings are across the board. SF home sales prices are down between 5% (Eastside) and 21% (Westside). Most are down around 13%! It also depends what you measure – 88% increase in condo listings!
Major Point:As we said for several months now, this downturn will continue… Markets become the stories people tell about them … and they are all negative now.
THE NUMBERS OCTOBER – FRASER VALLEY
| 2018 | 2017 | % | ||
| Sales | 841 | 1,723 | -51% | |
| Price | 740,500 | 696,300 | +06% | |
| Active Listings | 6,966 | 4,812 | +45% | |
| Days on Market | 35 | 24 | +46% | |
| SF Home Price | 1,058,000 | 1,075,700 | -02% | Sales -46% |
| Condo Prices | 391,300 | 349,400 | +12% | Sales -62% |
Major Point: As a buyer: Rejoice … realtors have time, multiple offers are dead, and owners look at offers! As the seller: ‘Look at 21 ways to make your home sell faster’. Free at www.jurock.com
Interest rates
For over 3 years I have been predicting higher rates. For 18 months I have predicted the exact increases (4 times in 12 months following June 2017). They will be much higher, at least by another 4 rises by end of 2019. Lock in.
Q. Any new binge TV shows?
A: An odd theme … but captivating. “Stranger Things” … we also liked the new Netflix mini series: “Bodyguard”.
MUSIC
OK, ok, spoiler alert … I like Roy Orbison, and yes Gene Pitney. (Yes, yes, I know – golden oldie!) Gene Pitney was simply unique. Distinctive in his vocals. He and Musicor were responsible for one of the greatest two-sided records ever; namely ‘I’m Loving Angels Instead’ and ‘If I Didn’t Have A Dime.’
USB ROCKS – AUDIOBOOK
Too busy to read? Want to listento 2 of Ozzie’s books?
- Real Estate Action 2.0
- What, Where, When and How to buy real estate in Canada!
No worries: I am not reading it. Haha! We have a bright young man with great intonation doing the honours. His name is Brady Nelson. You will hear a lot more about him in future.
The neat thing about audio books on USB is, that the USB reader shows the list of chapters – for easy scrolling. New cars (since 2015) all have USB readers installed.
RADIO
Ozzie is on air with Michael Campbell every Saturday on CKNW 980 sometime between 8:30AM – 10 AM. The Hot Property that we discuss there, is available by subscribing to the Ozzie Dispatch at Jurock.com
YOUTUBE.com/Jurockvideo
Look at Ozzie’s YouTube video– including selected bits of the fabulous Michael Campbell show and the “Blast of the Past” – what Ozzie said in 2010 on BCTV…
HOT PROPERTY
Again: Simply send an email to info@jurock.comand we will send you the contact info. A lot of sellers don’t want to talk to anybody that they don’t have at least the email from. Last time we forwarded 41 inquiries directly to owners or their reps.
- Edmonton. Incredible deal. 3050 sq. ft 2 storey, 4 bed 4 bath listed at $799,000. Listen: $50,000 down, 36-month term, at a purchase price of $780,000. City assessed at $950,000!
- Chilliwack: Cash flow! Better than new – fully renovated 1-BR condo on top floor. High flat ceiling, new SS appliances, cabinets, laminate flooring and more + unobstructed views of the Cheam mountain. Rents at $1100+, cash flows with 25% down. Price: $199,000! BONUS: First year strata fees free (worth $2,750) PLUS $1000 to the buyer’s agent!
- West Vancouver steal! Price dropped by $300,000! Downsize into a brand-new home in Ambleside. 2440 sq. ft., 3 bedrooms, 4 baths. Price has just been dropped from $2,598,000 to $2,298,000. In an area where other new houses sell for over $4 million.
TO COME
Questionnaire: After our first 12 issues we like to assess how we are doing in YOUR eyes. Please help by answering a few questions in an upcoming Survey.
LIVE LIFE LARGE
Humans do not have habits
Habits have the human
Have a great week and grow into your future best self!
LIVE LIFE LARGE!
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