- THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS – VANCOUVER AND FASER VALLEY ROCK
- QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS – I MEAN QUESTIONS!
- REPORT FROM GERMANY
- INFLATION, DEFLATION CRASH OR REFLATION
- AMERICANS ARE RUNNING FROM SOME CITIES – WHERE DO THEY FLEE TO?
- PEOPLE DON’T DO WHAT YOU EXPECT THEM TO DO…
- SIDALL WENT ROGUE!
- BINGEWORTHY SHOWS
- BOOKS RECOMMENDED
LANDRUSH 2020/2021 on SEPTEMBER 19, 2020
THE MOST IMPORTANT
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CONFERENCE IN 28 YEARS
OR – EVER
Scared, confused, worried – not after you attend Landrush 2020 on September 19
9 Ace speakers
Ozzie Jurock: Virus, Inflation or deflation, the new trends, cash or gold, real estate worldwide?
Remarkable annual forecasts and predictions. Ozzie presents the 2020 battle of fear, confidence, and the relationship between the two. Your one stop shop into clarity!
Todd Smith: Phoenix, hotter than a firecracker. Will it continue?
Rick Hoogendoorn: The volatile and soaring Victoria market. Will it continue and why…?
Kyle Green: The incredible world of low, low rates… pre-approve now or wait. How to get 1.3% mortgage.
Rudy Nielsen: “Buy a ranch, a farm, your waterfront lot”. The greatest Canadian ‘out of town’ expert makes a remarkable forecast.
Justin Smith: “Commercial Real estate could be the best niche… Find out pitfalls and fine opportunities”
Brent Roberts: The Fraser valley is up 75% is sales and 15% in Single family home prices. Ace Realtor tells it from the trenches.
Ralph Case: In these times, it is not enough to want to buy. You must have a precise plan.
James Knull: “Focus on Security: Cashflow Investing in a Covid World”
2020/2021 is shaping up to be a time of enormous turmoil, confusion, and uncertainty!
For details go below … >>>>>>>>>
Inflation deflation reflation forget about location
Lots of comments on “loyal to government”, struck a chord. Thanks for your many notes of support. One interesting comment “Loyal opposition only relates to the Crown”, not governments.
Well, dear readers … you know what I mean: Love country, community, system of government. Company and family … but voice your opinion and vote. It is gratifying to see soo much engagement, even though the number of emails make it almost impossible to answer each.
Q: I find the world very confusing. The rent deferral is over, the business income deferral is extended but will stop. Our mortgage deferral is over (or revised – see below.). The market goes up. What does it mean?
A: You are not alone. Spend a day on YouTube and type in “crash”, “crisis” and your hair will rise over your eyebrows … then follow it up with “Boom”, “Inflation”, etc.… and you see confusion reigns in some of the biggest names. The latest buzzword from the superrich? Reflation!
Q: I have been going back and looked at your ‘forecasts’. One in particular where you refer to cashless society ahead. That must mean 10 years from now, right?
A: Well, thousands of restaurants have stopped taking cash in the US. Millions are paying their bills with ‘apple pay’ – even ‘WeChat’. Oh, and in Vancouver – Cactus Club will not take cash on the beach. Why? We don’t know, but because of the virus? Why? Is there no virus on credit cards? But cashless we will be.
Q: If you debate there won’t be a correction go get some therapy.
A: Ha-ha … I love your attention to detail: One has to guess, what will correct, when and how and why and who I am debating?
Q: The Fall market needs to be discussed. Tell us, whether the current upturn in sales is going to continue, or how long it will las? Take a shot!
A: I thought about it. I got it: It will last till October 4 at 11 am and then turn up or down.
Q: More ‘home equity tax’ … This one on capital gain ‘tax exemption on offices in homes: Clearly, they cannot do that. We have been allowed to deduct expenses for ever?
A: Whatever your reason may be for “…they cannot do that”. Rest assured all tax revenue options will be studied at length! Including this logical one: Earn income, deduct expenses … means it is used to generate income, ergo: taxable and not cap tax exempt. Look at your Laneway home … the portion it sits on lost its exemption already!
Q: Inflation versus deflation. One of the best forecasts on the subject I thought were Dalio and others. Yours in OzBuzz 39 I ran across by accident. You should talk about that in big bold letters. I actually understand your reasoning. I now am a fan!
A: Blush. I will talk about it and add the new buzzword “reflation”. At Landrush Sept 19.2020. (look below)
INFLATION, DEFLATION OR REFLATION
Lots of questions on ‘hot market”, why people are buying, what will happen and will there be massive inflation or deflation. My view on deflation/inflation are clear and have often been stated for 20 years. My prediction in my 1998 book “Forget about location, location, location” stated that if we kept on printing money for the next 35 years (that we did leading up to 1998) hard assets would boom and houses in Vancouver would be worth $5 million. (We actually reached $4.4 million 2 years ago on the Westside.) The average price in 1965 was $13,500 and in 1998 $278,000.
You don’t have to buy my book, just go to OzBuzz issue 39 (ozbuzz.ca) and my explanation as to the different kinds of names for inflation and/or why we could have inflation and deflation at the same time.
REFLATION. Now the buzzword is ‘reflation’ … so inflation, Crash, deflation then reflation.
Yes, we are printing money like crazy, yes real estate and other assets are in high demand, and people are buying. What is the unique reason? This and many other questions will be debated, discussed, and answered at Landrush on September 19. In the meantime, ask yourself: Where do people get the confidence to rush into this market?
To the Comment: “Your comments on CMHC are indeed eyebrow raising. I believe Sidall is going to retire end of year? Maybe he is just CYA?”
Well, REM magazine featured David Larock’s article called ‘Siddall went rogue! His is an excellent treatise on the astonishing actions of the head of the CMHC.
THINGS I KNOW TO BE TRUE: PEOPLE DON’T DO WHAT YOU EXPECT THEM TO DO
Ok, ok, I am an old branch manager, an old regional manager and on old president of some 10,000 people and I have learned that people don’t do what you expect them to do. They do what you INSPECT! (with respect!).
Today, everyone expects people to work from home as they would if they were in the office.
Ha-ha! Have you tried getting a hold of anyone who works for the government or the city lately?
With all the thousands of people working from home people will NOT be normal. Not everyone will work evenly and certainly not as their bosses expect. If you are running sales teams and you think your people will make the calls, follow up and follow through without you inspecting them…. I have news for you! They won’t! Or at least not the way you think they are.
In sales, we only eat what we kill … and that’s hard … particularly if we are by ourselves.
So, inspect with respect, set targets, and inspect regularly. Oh, and you too! Put that on your car visor…or your work will suffer, and your production dwindle over time.
EYE POPPING! YOUR TAXES ARE NOW 42%!
How much did the average Canadian family spend on taxes in 2019? 42%! SAYS WHO? Niels Veldhuis, President Fraser Institute (you must subscribe to the institute … the best thoughtful publication on always relevant issues).
Mr. Veldhuis writes: “No, that’s not a typo — more than forty-two per cent of the average Canadian family’s income went to taxes in 2019. That’s more than housing, food, and clothing costs — combined. To contextualize this: everyone knows that real estate prices have skyrocketed over the last sixty years. Indeed, since 1961 housing costs have increased by a staggering 1,641%!
Over that same period, the average Canadian family’s total tax bill has increased by 2,226%. Check out the shocking new study here, and be sure to share it with everyone you know! Stay safe”.
Q: How long do we have to wait to feel the impact of the mortgage deferrals ending?
A: Actually, mortgage deferral is only available for 3 months (instead of the 6 months originally allowed). Effective Oct 1st, no new payment deferrals are granted. Looks like the program finishes at end of September.
NEWS TO PONDER
Australian Bank ANZ and the Commonwealth bank tell mortgage holders to sell before “they have no equity left.”
AMERICANS ARE LEAVING IN DROVES
People are literally fleeing New York and Chicago. In New York 600,000 people have left this year. Murder rates, 6 new crazy taxes and ‘mad’ Mayors. Taxes and worries over ever increasing violence. If you own where they ae leaving … sell! Find out where they go and invest there.. .This new trend will continue!
NOTE: Average property taxes in Alabama $787 per year, in New Jersey $7,800 per Year.
Leaving in droves: New York, Washington, Chicago, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Silicon everywhere, St. Louis and San Diego.
Where do they go? South and West! Florida, Texas, Arizona. Let’s move to a smaller house in a cheap sunny state with less taxes, and a more peaceful non confrontational lifestyle. They go to cities like Denver, Austin, Houston, Charlotte, Nashville, and Phoenix.
How do we know? Look for U-Haul statistics, where people move to and where they came from?
Myuhaulstory.com, also find the top 50 in US and top 25 in Canada. There ae other movers as well, showing up to date stats.
Major Point: Once you understand what will happen on a macro scale (inflation-deflation-reflation) and you still want to buy investment real estate … go to the towns mentioned and others and then buy there. Sell, sell, sell all cities where they are leaving.
BINGEWORTHY SHOWS – OLDIES:
Q: My father, my mother and my wife and I absolutely love the ‘West Wing’ you recommended. We are astonished we never watched it when first aired. Keep coming with your binge suggestions. We tried to find the crime story ‘Behzat’. Can’t find it. Will definitely try RITA.
A: We recommended Behzat C. over a year ago. Its not everybody’s cup of tea. Watch 3 segments and you will be hooked. Netflix keeps deleting and adding older shows. But if you found West Wing (US Netflix) you will find Behzat. It’s there too.
“My people and I have come to an agreement which satisfied us both. They are to say what they please, and I am to do what I please.” –Frederick the Great
GERMANY ADJUSTS IN REAL ESTATE ALSO
I read the illustrious General Consul Dr. Josef Schmidt’s column with interest and a bit of longing. Writes Schmidt: “Not only bicycle dealers and hardware stores, but also the real estate industry benefit from the “Corona summer “and its associated new freedom in Germany.
“City dwellers are increasingly looking for rural seclusion, clearly laid out social contacts – in short, more security in uncertain times. Recently, a Berlin newspaper reported a significantly increased demand for properties in the Uckermark and country life in Bavaria is booming.
“I am writing these lines in the Lower Franconian wine town of Sulzfeld am Main. When looking out of the window, I see medieval stone houses, red tile roofs and crooked house walls. No through traffic, just muffled sounds, and the occasional cultural tourist. Rural silence only occasionally interrupted by the clinking of the church bells. (Ed. Note: Sigh)
“Many houses here are currently being renovated, and urban preservationists and conservators are enjoying their booming businesses.
“Hundreds of years of village history are present and convey a special form of familiarity.”
Major Point: Indeed, I feel a sense of longing … as do many British Columbians. The Sunshine Coast the Interiors and Vancouver Island are all reporting massive sales increases. Our speaker Rick Hoogendoorn will concentrate on Victoria’s amazing sales summer as Canadians ‘flock’… Alas, no medieval stone houses here…
BOOKS OF THE WEEK
- A new Vancouver book with a “German” twist. Elke Porter (from Westcoast news) published “75 German-Speaking Influential People in Western Canada” on the Magcloud platform. The digital .pdf is available for under $6 USD and the print book is $36 USD.
You do need to sign up to order a digital copy, but not if you want to order a print copy.
Please register here: https://www.magcloud.com/browse/issue/1819778 and set up your account by choosing a username and password…. Its a worthwhile read – particularly if you have a German heritage…(This platform is an interesting study, if you ever wanted to publish that fine book that’s resting in your head, w/o the upfront charges.)
- 12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos by Jordan B Peterson. I am a latecomer to this Canadian super bestseller. My grandson Fraser told me how much he enjoyed the concepts and how many of his friends have adopted Peterson’s rules. My Granddaughter Lunette also found much to like. I loved it. I also enjoyed his countless debates on YouTube. A Canadian phenomenon. Here are some of his concepts…
– Treat yourself like someone you are responsible for helping. …
– Make friends with people who want the best for you. …
– Compare yourself to who you were yesterday, not to who someone else is today. …
– Do not let your children do anything that makes you dislike them.
THE NUMBERS THE NUMBERS – VANCOUVER AND FRASER VALLEY
AUGUST 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017
This summer is the summer of astonishment. Since June, the real estate market in Canada and parts of the US is in a dramatic turnaround. I mean dramatic! Toronto’s average price soars a whopping 20%!
Surrey’s SF soared 15% and sales? Vancouver’s SF sales roared in at 57% and the Valley an astounding 71%.
Read the last 4-year numbers and study them. Clearly you have to drill down into YOUR area of interest … but this is the larger picture
Major Point: So, everything is rosy? All is well? Hmm, I will spend a considerable amount of time on the market forecast following this mad summer at our Land Rush conference in two weeks.
Watch for: Listings are increasing in the condo sectors; sales were better in August 2017.
September will tell the tale…
Needless to say, when you look at averages in the Fraser Valley you look from Surrey to Langley White Rock to Cloverdale. Always drill into the numbers of the area YOU want to be in.
LANDRUSH! LANDRUSH! LANDRUSH!
2020/2021 is shaping up to be a time of enormous turmoil, confusion, and uncertainty!
However, that spells opportunity! Ozzie Jurock & his 9 ace expert speakers will help you adjust your ‘money making sails’ to steer a course to profit amongst treacherous real estate waters.
Inflation? Deflation? Reflation – the most crucial macro question answered!
The virus impacts. In his ozbuzz.ca blog Ozzie predicted a ‘return to normal sooner than you think’ in March 2020. The Canadian real estate market followed with an incredible 2 months of sales and price increases.
At Landrush 2020/2021 all speakers will predict the fall of 2020 – and 2021
Why is the market booming in North America…? And – more importantly – will it continue?
Forecasts for Canada and the US real estate markets – 7 vital decisions you MUST make…
The impact of US (and Canada) elections, rent deferral, mortgage deferrals, Government subsidies coming to an end, Ontario freezing rents, BC reducing increases by 50% … all will be analyzed and clarified.
Last year’s top recommendations earned you substantial returns and my advice to “cash is not trash” saved attendees capital and got them ready for that lifetime opportunity.
Find out where to make money in 2020/2021 and more importantly where not to lose any. What to buy and what real estate to run away from – fast!
This powerhouse ZOOM real estate conference – the only one of its kind – is now in its 28th year of profitable recommendations. Get into clarity!
(Please note, while we believe that we will have the physical conference in February – no one knows for sure yet. Your ticket will be good if the conference can be held. If it cannot be held at the hotel because of restrictions on assembly, your ticket will be good for a Zoom conference in any case.)
Join our REAL ESTATE MARKET forecast event on September 19, 2020 (Zoomerama), listen to the whole event in your car after and join our live event on Feb. 27, 2021
ALL FOR THE PRICE OF ONE TICKET!
NOTE: Get three events for the price of one
1. September 19, 2020 – Forecast 2021 – 9 speakers predict the future
2. The taped event you will get all speeches and panel discussions from September 19, 2020 on private website.
3. We have moved the physical Landrush to February 27, 2021.
See http://landrushcanada.com for tickets and more info.
(Please note, while we believe that we will have the physical conference in February, if the conference cannot be held because of restrictions on assembly, your ticket will be good if we are allowed to hold the full physical event – or a Zoom forecast if not.)
WANT TO PARTICIPATE?
Go to www.realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory at www.bcred.ca.
OZZIE’S YOUTUBE CHANNEL
You can watch all videos and podcasts on my YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/jurockvideo. It is a great way to check on what I said 10 years ago.
Ozzie is on air with Michael Campbell on the fabulous MONEYTALKS every Saturday sometime between 8:30AM – 10 AM. The radio station is CKNW and the best way to listen to it is WHEREEVER YOU ARE IN THE WORLD, just visit www.cknw.com at 8:30 am every Saturday (PST), click on live and you’re good to go. The Hot Property that we discuss there, is available by subscribing to the Oz Buzz Dispatch at Jurock.com
Why subscribe if I can just go to the website at Ozbuzz.ca? Hot properties and the latest podcasts are DISTRIBUTED TO SUBSCRIBERS FIRST– posted 2 weeks later on website.
HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?
You can reach me at email@example.com with all of your questions, comments and concerns regarding the Oz Buzz publication.