- THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS – VANCOUVER, FRASER VALLEY ROCK
- OZZIE TALKS ON VIRUS OUTCOME
- QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS – I MEAN QUESTIONS!
- BUBBLE CITIES
- INFLATION, DEFLATION OR REFLATION OR ALL AT ONCE?
- FINISHED RENT DEFERRALS, WHEN DO FORECLOSURES START?
- PUT YOUR MONEY IN A CREDIT UNION OR BANK – WHICH IS SAFER?
- MOVING TO ANOTHER COUNTRY
- US AND CANADA DOLLAR
- BINGEWORTHY SHOWS
- PETERSON FIGHTS TRUDEAU
- OZZIE’S SONGS OF THE WEEK
- NEW BOOK RECOMMENDATION
- GET INTO CLARITY BUY OZZIE’S OUTLOOK VIDEO AT LANDRUSHCANADA.COM
LANDRUSH 2020/2021 on SEPTEMBER 19, 2020
WAS THE MOST IMPORTANT
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CONFERENCE IN 28 YEARS
TO ANAYLYSE…Get the full day 10 speaker online video here:
get an Ozzie update on October 15, 2020 – included!
(see below for speaker outlines and topics)
2020/2021 is shaping up to be a time of enormous turmoil, confusion, and uncertainty!
Q: Why is it important to show 4 years of numbers side by side?
A: To give us backbone. To prove we are doing the same or better now in the middle of the virus crisis than we did before the pandemic. Backbone!
Q: People do not do what you expect them to do. Boy, can I relate to that. Apart from my longstanding belief that I must inspect my quality control area myself and my delivery vans and my salespeople…I just noticed that had I not inspected my tenants I would have been out 3 months rent rather than 1.
A: Remember inspecting with respect.
Q: I am seriously thinking of moving to another country? I cannot stand the Canadian socialism and the US is worse. I know you like Portugal. What about their system?
A: I have a close friend deciding to leave Canada for safety to another country. BUT…but! But not me. I am mentioning Portugal and other places as a second place, a happy holiday place. Not leave our great democracy…The US and Canada have problems but largely have been a force against evil in the world. You do not like the North American view of the world? How would you like to live in a Chinese world, or in some militant Moslem run worlds? Ok, maybe we are the best of the worst…but a darn side better than whatever else is on offer.
Q: Can not believe that our average taxes are 42%. I am not paying it!
A: If you are not paying it…good for you. But again … you can look up the fine ‘tax article’ here.
Q. Rent deferral finished? Ok, so 50% of the people stop paying their mortgage and there will be a rush of foreclosures in December? So, I should wait to buy then?
A: First I am not agreeing with your 50%. Note:
- Currently less than one half of one percent are in default.
- If people stopped paying in October, the bank would not start foreclosure for at least 3 months.
- By the time it gets to court, and a friendly judge will add 6 – 8 months before the bank or other debt holder can sell it.
- The best time to buy a foreclosure is always during the 6-month period leading to a final order of sale and deal with the troubled owner directly.
Q: What if the tenant deferred the rent and then moved out? How do I get my money back?
A: Looks like you are owed, but collecting it? Good luck! No one helps. Hmm, interesting article: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/salmon-arm-british-columbia-residential-tenancy-rent-landlord-1.5745051 This couple got stiffed…and there are hundreds like them. The ‘no eviction law’ and the ‘deferred rent’ law…all combined to hurt innocent homeowners (which our government calls speculators). Says the hurt couple: “I feel personally the governments almost legislated a form of theft on us. We’ve been forced to pay up the money, but we’re getting no help to recover it.” Indeed! All readers: READ THIS ARTICLE AND UNDERSTAND WHAT YOUR RIGHTS ARE… NOT!
Q: Comment on cashless society: Your comment on the Cactus Club taking no cash must be a temporary thing because of virus?
A: I cannot speak for them…but my fingerprints on cash are more dangerous than my fingerprints on my credit card? We are being trained not to use cash…get into a digital money world. Why? Much easier to keep track of us, work out new taxes, block you from taking money out of banks…
(Have you heard conspiracy?)
Q: I have heard you say that your money is safer in a Credit Union than in a bank. Why?
A: When we still had a paid subscription, we did a long research article on that question. The upshot: The Federal Government insures your money in the bank and other financial institutions with a nice sign “Federal deposit Insurance”. But what it means is, that it insures only up to $150,000. BC Credit Union deposits are however – in addition – unlimitedly insured!
(The change to unlimited deposit insurance was made in 2008 and puts B.C. on par with Alberta and the rest of the western provinces. Ontario still limits deposit insurance to a maximum of $100,000, and Quebec, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland limit coverage to $250,000. In B.C., credit union deposits are insured by the Credit Union Deposit Insurance Corporation (CUDIC), a government corporation. Full deposit insurance covers all money in deposits, including the funds placed in non-equity shares and foreign currencies (including accrued interest).
Comments: Tons of deflation, inflation reflation questions…
Q: I loved your speech at Landrush. You make a difficult subject understandable. OK, I buy in. There will be inflation then maybe deflation and then reflation? When to buy?
A: As a flipper, (if you are in and out of the market in a 60-day turnaround…now is the time. But it is a gamble. I said in 2007/2009: Find out where the Chinese are playing and as a flipper – with cash – you can play with them (one of my subscribers said he made over $1.5 million doing that.) Did I do that? No…I am a buy and hold for a while kind of guy. If the latter…wait for the outcome of the election (If you subscribed to the video…listen to my speech update on October 15 (updated on that day at landrushcanada.com/video).
IS THERE A BUBBLE BUILDING? PRICES ARE SOARING AROUND THE WORLD
With that question above in mind and my simplistic answer …I looked around the world. Surely all that money printed would be driving real estate up everywhere. (Actually, I took 3 trips around the world starting in 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2019 and reported to my subscribers that real estate values were soaring EVERYWHERE. The printing of money was a constant! Every year!
In fact, we have seen a relentless climb from $13,500 in 1970 – to $1.8 million today – same house, same location! When you listen to the ‘big thinkers’…you hear “currency devaluations, real estate tops/bottoms’, new money…etc., etc. Reality is we have had price increases for 50 years, or massive currency devaluations…or as I keep on saying: “We are living in the most unreported inflation in hard assets of all time”.
When I came from Germany it took 4 German marks to buy one dollar…today one dollar is worth negative 30 cents against the euro, my first house was $13,400 and now is worth now 1.5 million…That is asset price inflation. Period.
Work out the a) increase in value (over 30,000 percent) b) the total abasement and debasement of our currency and all western world currencies…c) and look at the real estate values around the world. Based on the simple Milton Friedman quote:”…inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon”, I have made multi year predictions on London, Ireland, Germany Canada, the USA the Philippines…years and years before and while they increase happened. All the while I had to defend the “simple Mr. Friedman”. Well, his simple statement has saved my subscribers, my listeners… mine and their bacon!
Interesting enough it had risen so much against all odds that now the fine UBS company published its Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2020 of 30 September 2020
UBS: “The spectre of a global recession has haunted housing markets for years. Yet in the midst of the current pandemic-triggered shock, this fear has so far turned out to be unfounded. Despite the sharpest global economic downturn in more than 60 years, house prices have accelerated in the last four quarters.
“Several puzzle pieces had to fall into place for house prices to avoid plummeting in such an environment. Governments have compensated many potential home buyers for their income losses. Financing conditions have been relaxed, and taxes and foreclosures suspended in many countries. And low interest rates that seem set in stone for years to come have kept investment demand high.”
The report goes on to warn about rent defaults etc. But here is the index: Given that Toronto is the third likely city in the world to be in a bubble, Vancouver the 8th. Now where did we hear that before. Oh, I remember 2001, 2002, 2003 from The Economist who ranked as such then 20 years ago!
This is a crazy world and NO ONE – LEAST OF ALL ME – knows exactly what is going to happen. Think about it … how to pay back the unprecedented massive debts? JREI predicted 50-year bonds last year. Marty Armstrong on the Michael Campbell show…predicts a “perpetual bond” with no expiry date.
In 2008/2009 it was QE, result: Massive inflation in real estate and all hard assets – Massive. Now we have the mother of all money creations; and hard assets are going down?
Give your head a shake … look at these cities. Yes, the report does not help you in your decision making, but when you realize that Manila is up 18% and Surrey’s single-family houses are up 15% and Victoria 18% maybe not so!
INFLATION, DEFLATION OR REFLATION
My 1.5 hour speech on the outlook of real estate worldwide and the above terms…is best listened to on landrushcanada.com/video – where ten ace speakers fine tuned their forecasting aim (Phoenix going to be up 40% and what will happen after the election?) I will also update my speech from September 19 on October 15…and no, its not free…go to landrushcanada.com and buy the whole day of speeches.
THOUGHTS TO PONDER:
- Scary time for just winging it
- Inflation and deflation can happen at the same time…financial inflation in hard assets, economic deflation in commodity. Where does that put your decision?
- Inflation in hard assets is much more likely (look at gold, real estate etc.)
- The US dollar will NOT crash. It will remain the world’s reserve currency.
- The Canadian dollar is married to the US more – Most provinces are intrinsically married to most US states – exports and imports. (Slide in my video.) Our dollar benefits, but as we are a commodity based economy it will likely head down again.
- Oil will go lower, not because of Saudi Arabia but because we drive less.
MAJOR, MAJOR POINT
To all who only see the dark side. You are wrong. I have said in 30 years of speeches. “No matter how bleak it looks…we WILL muddle through” (look at my old YouTube videos from 2004).
And muddle through we did. We as humans want contact, we want to experience joy, laugh, walk, dance spring, sing…and we will do so again. Sometimes we need a crisis (Friedman: We only change in crisis.)
Look at China. It has re-opened…their restaurants are busy. Movie theaters are full again.
In 2020 and 2021 we will go thru the valley again… but WE WILL come out the other side too! People want to go out and not be handicapped inside their home forever. Yes, airlines, hotels, casinos etc. will continue to suffer, but we will be forgetting this virus too (like we forgot Ebola SARS, etc., etc.).
Announce a management tool for the virus (doubt that we will ever have a vaccine – we still don’t have one for Ebola) and we will be hopping out of our hovels onto the street, into the restaurants…and get back to living.
BINGEWORTHY SHOWS – OLDIES:
Lots of comments on the West Wing…. Yes, it is shows like this that area a light shining through their extreme brainy writing and superb acting… as supposed to superhero shows aimed at children. Other series in the genre:
Newsroom – with one of the greatest speeches of all time: “Why America is not great” Gold!
Borgen: Similar to Westwing but in Denmark with a lady Prime minister. Gold!
Ok, if you like a “Superhero” series but without mystical burst into flame powers —
Go to the fab “Justified” US Marshall show and binge…6 seasons.
GREAT INTERNATIONAL SONGS WE LIKE
Golden oldies…and then some…German, British, French, Canadian, American singers
BOOKS OF THE WEEK
Lots of comments on Jordan Peterson book recommendation “12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos.”
I consider him a Canadian Hero. (He fought Trudeau’s use of ‘peoplekind’: https://www.dailysignal.com/2018/02/06/canadian-psychologist-ridicules-trudeau-over-peoplekind) He is not too scared to share his views…with careful thought and superb speech.
This week we recommend: “The strange death of Europe” by Douglas Murray. Wikipedia: “Murray explores two factors that explain why, in his view, European civilization as we have known it will not survive. The first is the combination of mass migration of new peoples into the continent together with Europe’s below replacement birth rates. The second is what Murray describes as “the fact that… at the same time Europe lost faith in its beliefs, traditions, and legitimacy”. Also, I just bought his newest book…will tell you next time.
Benjamin Tal forecasts stable housing sector, slower rental market
CIBC World Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal was optimistic about the housing market this week: “Eighty per cent of jobs lost were in the service sector. Many of them were low-income and many of them were renters. So, the impact was on rent as opposed to home ownership. We are seeing a situation where home ownership actually went up. Why? Because 25 per cent of Canadians are telling us that they are considering buying another unit during this recession. Why? Because their job is still there and their income is still there and interest rates are in the basement. That is an opportunity that they’ve been waiting for and that’s why we’re seeing some demand come from domestic homeowners, not foreign.”
Tal believes the low-rise housing market will be fine while more expensive condo buildings and suites will be more vulnerable. But, while the rental housing market will remain soft – the whole real estate market will stabilize at current levels, as opposed to continuing to rise by 20 per cent per year in terms of prices! Look up the article here.
An interesting comment on immigration: “While the country receives an average of 350,000 immigrants annually, 45 per cent of those are already in Canada: “Their status is changing, but they’re already in the country consuming real estate and consuming rentals. So, the decline in the number of new immigrants is not as dramatic as perceived. Tal pointed out there are about 3.5 million Canadians living abroad. A large proportion are in the United States and might be pondering a return due to a more acute COVID-19 crisis and social and political unrest south of the border. Political and financial uncertainty in Hong Kong is also prompting some of the 400,000 Canadians living there to return.”
“The number of returning citizens actually went up by 90,000 over the past six months and it look like Chinese money from Hong Kong is entering the market.
Major Point: Mr. Tal is one of the more level-headed bank economists and his comments are worth studying.
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS VANCOUVER AND FRASER VALLEY
SEPTEMBER 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017
This summer is the summer of astonishment. Between June and August, the real estate market in Canada and parts of the US has been in a dramatic turnaround. I mean dramatic!
- Now September sales roar further ahead
- Surrey’s SF sales soared 75% and SF prices? And the average FV price is up a whopping 14%
- Vancouver’s SF sales roared in at 76% and the price for a SF home? Up 13%
Major Point: NOTE. Condo inventory is rising everywhere… As last month…things are changing in the condo sector. Condo sales are up but so are listings right across the board
- Vancouver condo listings up by 12%
- Fraser Valley listings are up by 15%
- Calgary condo listings are 6% higher (and condo prices 8% lower)
Anecdotally: There are currently 906 attached resale listings in Downtown, Coal Harbour and Yaletown. We believe the average attached listings in these 3 areas is somewhere between 500-600.
Major Point: So, everything is rosy? All is well? The madness of the market in some area concerns me…too much too fast. We are drilling down the numbers throughout the world and will update our view on October 16 in a video presentation posted on the landrushcanaca.com video (get the while conference plus Ozzie’s update of October 15).
Needless to say, when you look at averages in the Fraser Valley you look from Surrey to Langley White Rock to Cloverdale. Always drill into the numbers of the area YOU want to be in.
Every property we had – everyone we thought hot…Sold… by press time! We will update a separate one later in the month.
LIVE LIFE LARGE
I grow into my future best self…
There is me here today
Thee is a better me somewhere tomorrowToday I take the first step
Towards growing into my
Future best selfYeah!LIVE LIFE LARGE
However, that spells opportunity! Ozzie Jurock & his 9 ace expert speakers will help you adjust your ‘money making sails’ to steer a course to profit amongst treacherous real estate waters.
- Inflation? Deflation? Reflation – the most crucial macro question answered!
- The virus impacts. In his ozbuzz.ca blog Ozzie predicted a ‘return to normal sooner than you think’ in March 2020. The Canadian real estate market followed with an incredible 2 months of sales and price increases. • At Landrush 2020/2021 all speakers will predict the fall of 2020 – and 2021
- Why is the market booming in North America…? And – more importantly – will it continue?
- Forecasts for Canada and the US real estate markets – 7 vital decision you MUST make…
- The impact f US (and Canada) election impact, rent deferral, mortgage deferrals, Government subsidies coming to an end, Ontario freezing rents…all will be analyzed and clarified.
- Last year’s top recommendations earned you substantial returns and his advice to “cash is not trash’ saved attendees capital and got them ready for that lifetime opportunity.
Find out where to make money in 2020/2021 and more importantly where not to lose any. What to buy and what real estate to run away from – fast!
10 Ace speakers
Ozzie Jurock: Virus, Inflation or deflation or reflation? the new trends, cash or gold, real estate worldwide?
Remarkable annual forecasts and predictions. Ozzie presents the 2020 battle of fear, confidence, and the relationship between the two. Your one stop shops into clarity! The crucial next 3 months!
Todd Smith: Phoenix, hotter than a firecracker. Prices will rise 40%!
Rick Hoogendoorn: The volatile and soaring Victoria market. Will it continue and why…?
Kyle Green: The incredible world of low, low rates… pre-approve now or wait. How to get 1.3% mortgage.
Rudy Nielsen: “Buy a ranch a farm, your waterfront lot. The greatest Canadian ‘out of town’ expert makes a remarkable forecast.
Justin Smith: “Commercial Real estate could be the best niche… Pitfalls and fine opportunities”
Brent Roberts: The Fraser valley is up 75% is sales and 15% in Single family home prices. Ace Realtor tells it from the trenches.
Ralph Case: In these times, it is not enough to want to buy. You must have a precise plan.
James Knull: “Focus on Security: Cashflow Investing in a Covid World”
Pete Ryznar of Ryznar Media: “A sharp look at current presale offerings and what you must know before you buy.”
2020/2021 is shaping up to be a time of enormous turmoil, confusion, and uncertainty!
Get the full day 10 speaker online video here
get an Ozzie VIDEO update on October 15, 2020 – included!
2020/2021 is shaping up to be a time of enormous turmoil, confusion, and uncertainty!
WANT TO PARTICIPATE?
Go to www.realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory at www.bcred.ca.
OZZIE’S YOUTUBE CHANNEL
You can watch all videos and podcasts on my YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/jurockvideo. It is a great way to check on what I said 10 years ago.
Ozzie is on air with Michael Campbell on the fabulous MONEYTALKS every Saturday sometime between 8:30AM – 10 AM. The radio station is CKNW and the best way to listen to it is WHEREEVER YOU ARE IN THE WORLD, just visit www.cknw.com at 8:30 am every Saturday (PST), click on live and you’re good to go. The Hot Property that we discuss there, is available by subscribing to the Oz Buzz Dispatch at Jurock.com
Why subscribe if I can just go to the website at Ozbuzz.ca? Hot properties and the latest podcasts are DISTRIBUTED TO SUBSCRIBERS FIRST– posted 2 weeks later on website.
HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?
You can reach me at email@example.com with all of your questions, comments and concerns regarding the Oz Buzz publication.