Oz Buzz

April 21, 2024

“When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing – When you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors – When you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you – When you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice – You may know that your society is doomed.” ― Ayn Rand

New videos and podcasts:

RealEstateTalks: Transform Your Real Estate Fortune – Ace Financial Advisor Christian Dy Reveals Blueprint to Skyrocket Your Wealth! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poXjlfqcfds

RealEstateTalks: Immigration: Real Estate with Ace Lawyer Ravi Jain! Residency, Citizenship, Investors, Students – The real numbers… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24eLnes7HWE

RealEstateTalks: Mortgage Ace Kyle Green Spills Secrets -LTI Ratio, 30-Year AM+Jaw-Dropping Rate call! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQyJhQojsZc

Podcasts here:
Listen to Ozzie’s Podcast on OZCAST at www.ozbuzz.ca
Also on Apple podcast, Amazon video, Spotify.

AGENDA

  • NEW VIDEOS AND NEW PODCASTS: ON IMMIGRATION/PLANNING/MORTGAGE RULES
  • NEW BUDGET – FEDERAL
    NEW BUDGET – BC
  • 60 IS THE NEW 40! AND THEN WE REALLY START PRODUCING
  • ECONOMY – INTEREST RATES
  • OZZIE’S FAVORITE PIANO PIECES
  • QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS
  • REVERSE MORTGAGES
  • POSTPONING THE CAPITAL GAIN IS LEGAL
  • FOLLOW UP ON GOVERNMENT “INITIATIVES”
  • PAY NO TAXES FOR 10 YEARS
  • OIL PRICES, CANADA DOLLAR

QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS

Q: Dear Ozzie. Reading your comments about taxes, new government regulations, woke universities, immigrants bringing their religious biases and using our institutions to demonstrate against us – I feel old. At 60 I don’t want to fight or to argue or learn the new AI. TikTok is the last straw. I feel old and beaten up.
A: As Bugs Bunny used to say: “Aaaaah, Shut up!” 60 is the new 40! Study this! Where do you fit in? A book review published in the New England Journal of Medicine found at age 60, you reach the TOP of your potential, and this continues into your 80s. Therefore, if you are 60-70 or 70-80 you may have the best and 2nd best opportunity in your life to produce meaningful accomplishments that can leave a lasting positive legacy.

  • Ray Kroc founded McDonalds at 59.
  • Colonel Sanders founded Kentucky Fried Chicken at age 66.

YOU ARE A BABY! NOTE:

The average age:

  • of NOBEL PRIZE winners is 62.
  • of CEOs of BIG companies is 63 years.
  • of pastors of 100 largest churches in the U.S. is 71.
  • of the Popes is 76 years.
  • of US presidents and 70% of all countries Premiers or Presidents are over 70

(From Michael Geller and Richard Raisler.)

What you have learned in a lifetime, what you have in your head will take a newbie 15 years to learn! Value it, cherish your experiences, your understanding, your caring and learn the new AI things, you can!

Q: The mortgage calculators at banks like CIBC are not working, You have to go thru the hoops of a hundred questions and still no access to find out a simple mortgage calculation.
A: Go to Kyle Green’s website.

Q: At your Real Estate Institute talk last week you talked about an idea for avoiding/postponing capital gains tax?
A: All you read here is opinion. You MUST check this out with your accountant. Under current capital gains tax rules, you can defer your taxes on your capital gain if you carry back financing … for up to 5 years. Spreading it out always helps. However, if you do it before June 25 will it apply to the current (April 21) rules or the new rules?

Q: You did an item on Reverse mortgages. I remember you were always against reverse mortgage. What’s new?
A: You are right I was not keen on them. Just google ‘reverse mortgage problems’ and you realize there may be issues with some providers. So get advice on the institution and have your lawyer read the docs. But I ran across a situation which I discussed with Kyle Green on this video.
Let’s say you are 65, you live in a – say $2 million house and would like to stay there. You have two struggling kids. You could take a mortgage for $1 million and pay $500,000 to each kid. They have a downpayment without interest payments and you make no payments on the mortgage either. They get the house anyway once you die… This way it’s earlier and no proverbial of skin of your nose.

Q: Like your detail devil! I had my head examined just in time. Instead of removing subjects on my new lot, I got a subject extension to July 15.
A: Smart move

Q: How did Prince George make out with their request for STR release?
A: It and other places were overruled by BC government.

Q: I sent your Ozbuzz to a friend and here is what he says.
A: I don’t respond to non-subscribers. Too busy responding to people that at least take the time to give me their email. Tell him, everyone is entitled to their opinions. But there were several people that simply don’t get my argument. Yes, you are entitled!
To repeat, as an investor I have a choice.

  1. Take a risk and make a bigger profit than leaving it in the bank. I don’t care whether you can get 6% or 4%, there is no risk to the income. If I do not put it in the bank and give it to a developer for 7 years and hope to make $100,000 realizing that there may be a 40% Federal take, a 20% provincial take, a 5% GST and 2.5% transfer tax before I get my share. That is after I waited (fretted) for 7 years, face possible developer bankruptcy. I take a huge risk. Now without reward!
  2. Developers cannot get a CONSTRUCTION LOAN if they do not have at least 65% of the units presold! They usually get at least 50% of that from investors. Investors look for a better return than they get from GICs. These new laws will have the impact of investors backing off and out. Constructions costs are rising, Government taxes are rising on all levels (30% of every condo build goes to the development fees etc., etc.) Particularly in a rising interest environment. Ergo. Ask yourself…how many buildings will now not even be started?
  3. Example – dozens of developers pause/stop…like Kerkhoff paused his One Varsity 35-storey project across from the new UBCO tower that is currently under construction in downtown Kelowna, following Mission Group not going ahead on 2 high-rises (citing rising costs, not taxes).

Q: Your piece on EVs and solar has me scratching my head. 
A: You and everyone that invested in EV and solar stocks and every taxpayer.

COMMENTS

A virtual barrage of emails on the BC budget and the Federal budget. My opinion does not matter … yours does…

ON BC:

Looks like they took a step back on giving First Nations the veto power over all BC residents. Yes, they only represent 5%. This government has not given up on the idea and will bring it back if and when re-elected.

BC and Ottawa will work with provinces and territories to:

  • develop a renters’ bill of rights that would introduce a national standard lease agreement and
  • implement requirements for landlords to disclose an apartment’s pricing history to allow tenants to negotiate their rent.

The new measures will also include a $15-million fund for provincial legal aid organizations that help tenants fight against renovictions and landlord abuse.

There is more … but the outcome is clear.

The fight is against Landlords, investors, all producers of growth and wealth.

FEDERAL:

Total disconnect. Increasing debt doubles the debt interest costs.

Budget’s deficit and lack of focus on growth. Increase to the capital gains inclusion tax rate from 50% to 66.6% for capital gains realized above $250,000. The new capital gains tax punishes the risk taker, the investor. Without him there is no capital investment, no progress, no innovation.

Interesting, one week the Feds celebrate investors in new AI initiatives, the next week (yep!) they punish the angel investor (angel investors on average lose on 7 in 10 deals, hoping to make it back big on the other two). Without them there is no one funding startups.

Possible result:

  1. If you have owned a property (apartment building) for a few years and profit could be substantial you will rush to sell now!
  2. This will act as a huge disincentive for investment in Canada at a time when the country already struggles to attract the very innovative investment we need.
  3. Lowest innovation country in G7
  4. Businesses and individuals will now simply invest their capital elsewhere.
  5. No changes to stress test

Canadian housing starts down seven percent in March.

Other new things in budget:

  • 30 Year Amortizations for first time home buyers purchasing newly built homes, starting August 1, 2024. (little benefit – can borrow 5% more and payments drop by about $50 per $100,000. But a HUGE increase in interest cost).
  • Increase in Home Buyer’s Plan Limit by allowing first-time buyers to withdraw more from their RRSP’s for down payments. Individuals will now be able to withdraw $60,000 as an individual and $120,000 for couples. (Not many first timers have $60,000 in RRSP)

TIME WILL TELL:

  • A plan to build more homes faster by making it easier to access and launch Canada Builds and inject $15 billion to the Apartment Loan Construction Program.
    (In place since 2017! So far has had some success – about 7% of all condos built – or about 28,000 units in 6 years).
  • A commitment to unlock 3.87 million new homes by 2031. (No plan on how, but we built 27,000 in 6 years…ha-ha!)
  • Government will increase annual program spending by an average of 4.4% over the next two years and kick the debt problem down the road for another government to solve. So much more could be said…

The real ongoing pain:

  • $54 billion in interest charges… $1 billion a week! It is supposed to help generations, doubling the entire federal debt since the Trudeau government came to power – how is that helping our kids and grandparents?
  • Debt service is now higher than health costs (transfer), or GST collection, or military spending.
  • $1.2 trillion is the debt now …when he was elected it was $600 billion.
  • $40 billion new deficit – why are they borrowing this now? 
  • No plan to balance the budget ever. 

Problem is not revenue it is a spending problem.

THE SOLUTION? GET A GOLDEN VISA AND A 10 YEAR TAX HOLIDAY

The Portugal Golden Visa and the Portugal D7 Visa both offer tax benefits for foreigners.

Portugal Golden Visa Tax Benefits:

  • No inheritance taxes
  • No wealth taxes 
  • Low property taxes (0.3% to 0.8%)
  • Exemption from taxes on income from cryptocurrencies
  • 20% flat tax on domestic income under the Non-Habitual Residence (NHR) program
  • Worldwide income not taxed at all under NHR
  • 28% flat-rate capital gains tax under NHR
  • 10% flat-rate tax on pension income under NHR

The NHR tax benefits last for 10 years.

So in summary, the Portugal Golden Visa, and D7 Visa both provide access to the NHR tax program, which offers significant tax advantages for up to 10 years. The Golden Visa also has additional tax benefits like no inheritance or wealth taxes.

Just Listen…

  1. Absolutely marvellous piano pieces: 
    Love Hanz Zimmer and adore Peter Buka’s Piano
    From Inception: ‘Time’ – Hans Zimmer (Piano Remake) by Peter Buka (3,656,548 views) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oos_lp9yN0w
  2. True Love
    Comptine d’un Autre Été – Yann Tiersen – TheChiefEmperor https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0cZukTFXNw

MORE QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS

Q: You say that we are dependent on world events for our oil prices. Plus our Canadian dollar rises and falls with oil prices?
A: Yes, indeed, our longstanding rule. However now with wars – everything is skewed … and the elephant in the room… Canada lowers rates before the US.

Q: How come everywhere the average price is $1.3 million (Vancouver) and $1.1 million (Toronto). You say it is over $2 million.
A: The average price quoted includes all sales: Condos, townhouses, and single family. (In Vancouver all sales between Lions Bay and Maple Ridge.) We are breaking it down at least into SG and Condos. But you need to check with your realtor the actual area you want to buy in and what you want to buy. Average SGF home maybe $2.2 million but Westside is $4.4 million. Wanna have more fun…compare benchmark prices with median and then average prices. 

Q: I wish you would publish on a more regular schedule!
A: Me too.

Q: INFLATION (lots of  questions)
A: Again: Just revisit Ozbuzz 92 and previous… It is here, it is visible. Hard assets are rising. CPI and PPI are higher than forecast.

Q: Mortgage questions
A: We handled a lot of the ARM and VRM mortgages and for updates direct you to our YouTube channel; youtube.com/jurockvideo

Q: I try again. What about Bitcoin or stock market?
A: Not invested in either … so … sell in May and go away…

Q: INTEREST question:
A: Looks like Canada and the US are on divergent paths. 

  • US stays higher longer. One reduction July/Sept. That’s it!
  • Canada, one reduction in June maybe one more … between .5 and .75 reduction in total for 2024.
  • But … on the one hand … and then on the other…
  • Jamie Dimon sees 7%… Others see depression era rates.

THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS

Snapshots:

TORONTO sales up 17%

  • Price up .2% over 2023
  • SF $1,650,000 BUT high was March 2022 at $1,920,000
  • New listings up 33%
  • Active listings up 15%

CALGARY

  • Sales up 23%
  • Listings under $500 000 down 40%
  • Apartment prices up 19% 
  • SF prices up 13%

BRITISH COLUMBIA NEW NUMBERS

The BC housing market is in a period of “relative calm entering the spring,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While activity is picking up, home sales remain below normal, and home prices have been essentially flat since last summer.”

Active listings are up 20.3 per cent over last year as a result of slower sales but last year was the slowest pace of new listing activity since 2005. Sales are down across the board 9.5%, but dramatic differences: Victoria – 1.1% – Okanagan 34.1%.

Source: BCREA 

SNAPSHOT MARCH 2024 VANCOUVER AND FRASER VALLEY

Again we repeat that, as we compare ourselves in 2024 to the same months in 2023, we will look great! The market collapsed in 2022/2023 – now it has recovered? Well against 2023, yes! BUT NOT AGAINST 2022, 2021 AND 2020. Still well behind the highs achieved.

Vancouver and Fraser Valley

VANCOUVER 

SF sales are still well below the 10-year average for MARCH. We remain way behind in number of properties sold! WAY behind! Look at the past.

Here is a 5-year MARCH 2024 over MARCH 2023/2022/2021/2020 comparison.

VANCOUVER – Single Family

 

Major Point: Nothing about March 2024 is normal! SF sales remain below last year and dramatically below 2022 and 2021 even below the anemic 2020.

Vancouver SF and condo prices better than 2023 but below 2022! New and active listings higher.

The Vancouver and Fraser Valley Real Estate Board have the BEST current statistics. Get your professional realtor give you the numbers for the sub-area that YOU are interested in.

FRASER VALLEY – Single Family

Major Point: Fraser Valley – SF Sales were up by 40% last month, down 12% this month. Plus 50% below sales of 2022 (1,015) AND still 65% lower than 2021. New listings are up 17% in condos; up 26% in SF homes. Active listings up 26% in all ranges.

MAJOR, MAJOR POINT: Early April is a lot better than the anemic March. We hear of (well-priced houses) multiple offers. We hear of full open houses. The thought of possibly lower rates is a motivator. The story in MARCH was stronger in sales, but not strong overall. Higher in listings. As last month, please note that in our view interest rates will not be lower until June – if then.

“The first lesson of economics is scarcity: there is never enough of anything to fully satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics.“

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