Oz Buzz

January 20, 2025

“Every speaker has a mouth, an arrangement rather neat. Sometimes it’s filled with wisdom, sometimes it’s filled with feet.” 

—Robert Orben

Talk, Talk, talk: NOTE what Ozzie says about the World Outlook Financial Conference on Feb 7/8 hosted by Michael Campbell:

“We want clarity in today’s global ocean of uncertainty.”

“Join us for a conference that stands as the pinnacle of excellence over the past three decades, featuring distinguished presenters with a proven track record of excellence for their expertise, and offering live sessions that provide unparalleled insights.”

Go to mikesmoneytalks.ca click on EVENTS – BUY it NOW!

THE ABSOLUTE BEST LIVE OUTLOOK FINANCIAL CONFERENCE EVER!

Latest videos and podcasts – Talk, Talk, Talk.

Ozzie chats with Michael Campbell:

TARIFFS, Trump, Debt Crisis, Global Uncertainty, World Outlook, Proven records

Ozzie does a NEW follow up with Bill Laidler:
Get Rich Fast? The actual costs and timeline to build that 6 plex on your SF lot
Ozzie – Resolution already dead? Ozzie shares the secret 3 words

podcasts(Each video is also available AS A PODCAST on
Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Pocketcast and many others!)

See ozbuzz.ca/category/podcasts/

AGENDA

  • MIKE CAMPBELL AND OZZIE TALK 2025
  • NOT TO BE MISSED SHORT VIDEOS (SUBSCRIBE AND LIKE)
  • 2024 YEAR-END NUMBERS
  • BUFFET STILL SITS ON 330 BILLION IN CASH
  • INFLATION OR UNEMPLOYMENT WHAT WORRIES US MORE
  • WORKING FROM HOME
  • SALES UP IN DECEMBER BUT STILL DOWN FROM 2020 BY 52%!
  • SONG OF THE WEEK
  • US/CANADA RATES
  • CANADA DOLLAR
  • TAX CANCELLED?
  • MORTGAGE WARS
  • TORONTO 28 YEAR LOW IN PRESALES

 

COMMENT: The Big Question AGAIN: What Will 2025 Bring?

A lot of thank yous to ALL the fine comments to Ozbuzz #101 and #102. When you have soo many people subscribing its great to see where your words resonated and – yes – where they did not. 46 people wrote glowingly on the “forecast summaries” of issue #101. Two thought not much about it but felt the need to argue about: 1. World is shifting to the right, 2. German election (by now I was already proven right) 3. US Dollar (steadfastly insisting it will collapse (see below – it will not). Also some complained that my (free) video started too late (5 min), but did not comment on content … and so it goes. Several – what I would call – sweet letters that I received about the message in #102 made my day. The one I liked the best (among soooo many):

But, you ( Ozzie ) and Mike Campbell have been two of the most generous , gracious, and helpful people I have come across in my life. Don’t forget to do what YOU WANT TO DO, what makes YOU happy / satisfied etc. There are always people that complain and never step up in life to help others. If you chose to discuss why the moon is made of cheese, I would still listen to you. You are young at heart and that is another inspiration to many of us. Keep doing what you’re doing and I hope u r around for a long, long time. Merry Christmas to you and your family. All the best and thank you for all your efforts over the decades. Sincerely, L.L” 

Also all the supportive commentaries on my lamentations about the survey.

Several submissions on the Qs and As (Bring them back), so in this issue we will start with them: 

Q: As you point out, the world is turning and the little man is winning. Will the turn be complete?
A:
 Not sure what you mean by ‘ complete’, but the US election, the upcoming Canadian and German elections have things in common. All elections have been and are still an existentialist fight between labour and capital. That will change in future 1st by ‘technology run elections’ and 2nd by scary ‘technological superiority’.  

Q: I take issue with your negative stance on working from home. It is the future.
A:
 Well, I guess I am a long time ago branch/regional/general manager. I hired people with this proviso: Office staff: From 9 – 5 is company time. Sales staff; From 8 – 11 is company time. Meaning: You are in the office at that time, or don’t bother coming in at all. I was trying to create a culture. Make sure, everyone knows all about the company, what we stand for, believe in and what it is that we value… by the whole team. The reason there are coffee stations, meeting areas and the like are that the girl from accounting can meet the sales guy and we have a culture of pride and create it through constant repetition and/or impact of the boss having a coffee with the driver.

What all the ‘working from home crowds’ don’t realize: You are taking yourself out of the equation – nay out of a job! What are the most jobs being lost right now? Office employees. Senior positions can’t get a job either. Out of sight – out of mind! Time to get back to work.

Ok, last ‘old manager’ quote: People do not do what you expect, they do what you inspect – with respect!

Q: The Canadian buck slipped to 70 cents…2 years you recommended selling it at 72 cents. Should have waited ?
A:
 It is our multi-year continuous position that the US dollar is and will stay the world’s RESERVE currency. But the question was 2 years ago: Should I bring back my winnings now. The answer then and is now: It all depends on what actions you want to take, the purpose and what you will do with the money. I.e. :

1. Take a million US at 72 cents – 2 Years = $1,388.000 + collect 6% (GIC) = $83,250 x 2 = $166,500 + $1,388,000 = You have $1,554,000. Or
2. Leave it in US, wait 2 years $1,000,000 at 2.5% = $25,000 x2 = $50,000

Now convert $1,050,000 = 70 cents – $1,499,998.50 Canadian. That is if you were in GICs. One of our clients is still getting 8% on private capital 1st mortgage investments. 65% LTV.

Q: You always quote drinking beautifuls. But on FB you always wave a beer? What gives?
A: Another good real estate question! I’m ‘waving’ ONE beer when I’m in a restaurant. ONE Beautiful is revered at the restful evening celebrating yet another day of being alive with JOY.
(Watch my video of getting onto JOY)

Q: You told us to say “I love you” more often. What if they don’t say it back?
A:
 The reason you say ‘I love you’ is because you mean it. If you mean it, you don’t have to hear it back. And – remember the premise and promise of “constant space repetition”.

Q: Interest rates. The US goes higher. Will Canada? What is your best guess?
A: The BoC interest rate announcement is January 29, 2025. Also the quarterly Monetary Policy Report will be released then. So far, the BoC has reduced the policy interest rate by a total of 1.75%  since June 2024. Now at  3.25%. We expect the Bank to go down another .25% that day to 3%. RBC and other majors see the rate go to as low as 2% by summer. You mention the word ‘guess’. That’s what we all do now. Just remember: the overnight bank rate sets your credit cards, bank loans and variable rate mortgages. NOT your fixed loans/mortgages and otherwise. The big difference always what bond rates do (what investors want as interest to buy bonds), but the bank rate is determined by the central bank in every country depending on economic circumstances. The US dollar gets STRONGER, but the rise in U.S. yields sent jitters through markets overseas. In the U.K., benchmark bond yields headed for a sixth straight daily advance, and the pound weakened further. Stock indexes fell across Europe and Asia.

Q: What about the massive 3 billion renewals coming up? Setting up for a crash?
A: Watch my video about the Mortgage wars. Banks will fight for the renewal to come to you. May even lower rates…

Q: Always the same question. We have considerable investments in the US. Will falling interest rates help the commercial US real estate markets this year?
A: HUH? The US has increasing rates not falling rates! Based on Freddie Mac’s first Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) this week, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.91 percent as of January 2, 2025 (as of last week it went to 7.12%). A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.62 percentThe 15-year FRM averaged 6.13 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.89 percent.

Q: It seems to me that inflation will increase sales and prices and falling rates will accelerate this throughout the world?
A: Interesting. I agree in general terms that inflation, higher inflation is always a “monetary phenomenon” aka Milton Friedman. But real estate markets are highly emotional and psychological right now. We have a crazy world. German real estate is way down, Ireland prices are up by 9%. Britain is near collapse… Take your pick. Investors and buyers are staying on the sidelines … I know, I am! But then there is the MR.BUFFET: “when everyone is crying  you should be buying”. Yet, today he is uncertain sitting on 330 billion in cash.

Q: Is inflation still your biggest fear?
A:
 It never has been my fear. With the debt loads in the world (never will be paid back) inflation is the only way to pay it back by debasing the currency. And inflation is rising everywhere. US is higher. In the UK, more than half of companies are planning to raise prices in the next three months as they face a “pressure cooker of rising costs and taxes”, according to one of the UK’s largest business groups. In Canada, inflation is biting at all levels up now 30% over 2 years ago.

However: NOTE: My biggest concern is the ever-increasing unemployment rate in Canada. Nationally 6.9%, 7.8 % in Ontario,7% in BC. (US stands at 4.1%) Out of a job? Can’t buy anything…

Q: Where is the bankruptcy list you mention to get? How did BC rate?
A: BC: The fine Western Investor calls it a ‘wave of bankruptcies in BC in their December issue. WI: “The year 2024 was a difficult one for many B.C. businesses… Nationally, business insolvencies for the 12‑month period ending Oct. 31 increased by 41.7 per cent year to year. Transportation, warehousing, construction, accommodation and food services registered the biggest increases in insolvency numbers. Mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction registered the biggest decreases.”

Lists you may wish to subscribe to: 

Q: Why are investors leaving Canada?
A:
 Not sure what ‘investors’ you talk about. Money (cash) investors look for a return. In Canada all returns are massive taxed (although some of them may be reversed – see below). Real Estate investors on the pre-sale market are literally better off leaving their money in the bank, then having to pay 40% plus flipping tax federally, 20% provincially (BC). Plus pay 5% GST and 2.5% property transfer tax. Then pay a realtor $25,000 to sell it…and there goes all profit. I mean ALL OF IT! Why take the chance? That’s why we have a 28 YEAR low in PRE- condo sales in Toronto. 28-YEAR LOW!

Q: Which country would you invest real estate in?
A: Please note, I’m on record saying that for safety and certainty of bank rules and legal systems and minimal corruption, stay in Canada and the US. But we have done several videos with brave investors making great returns worldwide. Check them out here: youtube.com/jurockvideo (videos on Florida/Hawaii/Texas/Thailand/Dubai/Portugal/Panama/Mexico)

Q: You keep saying that we are overtaxed. What about over-profit?
A
: Not a fan! Interestingly the Fraser Institute (fraserinstitute.org) just came out with this: “Family in B.C. earning just over $50,000 a year faces a marginal effective tax rate of 70% on any additional income.” That’s also why investors don’t want to invest, or people don’t like overtime.

Q: You keep talking about a wealth tax and the deletion of the capital gains exemption. But where is it? You scare people for nothing.
A:
 The government commissioned UBC at a cost of $250,000 to do a study on a home equity tax. Professor Kershaw created and launched a trial balloon of a wealth tax after that in 2022. Went over like a lead balloon. But look at the Generation Squeeze – a think tank purportedly dedicated to promoting well-being and fairness for Canadians across generations. (Google it and worry if you are a homeowner or over 50.) 

According to Blackrock Reporter in 2022, CMHC approved a $200,000 grant to proponents of a home equity tax, as revealed through Access to Information records

Also he said – and NOTE: Cabinet quietly polled Canadians on a home equity tax even after promising it would not introduce the measure, records disclose. Cabinet aides commissioned focus groups on the question as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attended an invitation-only meeting with home equity tax advocates in Vancouver last June: “We can all learn from each other.” 

Q: Will the new conservative government delete the increase in the Capital Gains tax to 66%? 
A: Its difficult to trust any government when it comes to the collection of taxes. The leader said yes, he will (Vancouver last week). Soif the conservatives form a new government, the proposed increase to the capital gains inclusion rate will not likely proceed. Also, Parliament has not yet approved it. But the CRA will collect the tax – it says – anyhow. See your accountant and cry!

Q: You had the opera overture to Parcival with a famous British Conductor – leading a German Orchestra. I can’t find it anymore.
A
: You are likely referring to the Overture of Wagner’s LOHENGRIN directed by Simon Rattle (British master) leading the Berlin Philharmonic Orchestra (Master musicians) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyodILZEQFg

In general, to my mind conductors are everything! Simon Rattle and Klaus Tennstadt are the greatest conductors – google all their works. Funny Rattle is British and directed the Berlin orchestra and Klaus you guessed it , is German and directed the London Philharmonic (Listen to his Lohengrin masterpiece https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=klaus+tennstedt+wagner

Q: I like your taste in stuff.  Why not a song, book, video, movie of the week?
A:
 Have been drawn to this old Roeksopp song “What else is there”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADBKdSCbmiM

Q: Were do we get to see Ozzie live events, like Landrush?
A: Landrush is postponed to September. Biggest upcoming public event is WOFC Feb 7/8. Go here: https://ozbuzz.ca/events/

Q: You mentioned that you had over 200,000 visitors at Ozbuzz in December at a recent speech. How can I advertise there?
A: 
Currently we offer no paid advertising on our channels. We said that we had over 200,000 visitors on all our websites. Here is a breakdown. Note all sites are currently free to participate in: Followers / Visitors / – Ozzie owned websites

Ozbuzz.ca website          94,615
realestatetalks.com          99,398
BCRED.ca (REdirectory)  13,451
askanexpert.ca                   5,795
Landrushcanada.com         3,899
Jurock.com                         1,959
A-Group                              1,944   (plus email)
RE Action Book                     669
Forget Book                           544

                                        248,219

Additionally we have 29,840 followers that subscribe via email.

Ozbuzz thanks you for your interest.

Q: In a recent speech you talked about rentvest (renting your luxury house and condo but investing in cashflow in Florida?) I didn’t see it in Ozbuzz.
A: We covered rentvest on video at jurockvideo on YouTube. Yes, we had videos on buying condos in Texas and houses in Florida ($275,000 with a pool) at youtube.com/jurockvideo. Luxury condos/ houses: Well, Sotheby’s says that luxury condominiums are growing in inventory. In fact the now lower prices and falling interest may be a buyer’s opportunity according to Sotheby’s. (Jan 15). They call luxury condos a  buyer’s market due to accumulation of available inventory and downward pressure on prices. Vancouver also saw a 15-per-cent decline in detached home sales above $4 million, to 264 sales.  The report said of Vancouver. “Sales activity ( in luxury real estate) remained relatively slack throughout the year as buyers, particularly move-up buyers in the entry-level top-tier market, remained cautious, prioritizing affordability amidst economic uncertainty and elevated mortgage rates.”

TORONTO

Many questions on Toronto’s condo market. Soo many ‘bad news’ videos on YouTube. What are the facts? URBANATION says that TO had the highest number of condo units cancelled in a year since 2020.

It also said that 2024 was worst year for presales since 1996! 28 years!

4,590 transactions were recorded in 2024, a 64% decline from the 12,696 sales observed in 2023. The number of transactions recorded in 2024 is also 78% short of the 10-year average for the metric, which is 20,835 sales.

Vancouver is not far behind. Look at our 52% in ALL SALES SINCE 2020 (BELOW). That is why we felt that developers actually NEED TO BE offering great deals for buyers of pre-sales. Discounts, interest on deposits, cars, furniture.

Vancouver also has far lower units going into the ground…

So the possible upshot? Come 2027 and beyond we have no new condos … putting pressure on existing housing stock. So buying today, with ace quality developer … and take possession in 2027/2028 may be a masterpiece: Great discount, new furniture, lower rates … and little competition.

————————————————-
Remember: You are reading Ozzie’s opinion, not advice! And, yes, I have lots of them! But use only your personal professional lawyer/realtor/accountant/ to make  your personal investment and life decisions.
————————————————-

NUMBERS, NUMBERS AGENDA – VANCOUVER AND FRASER VALLEY

  1. ‘Rolling’ total Dec 2020-2021 versus Dec 2023-2024. Still a clear crash! That’s in sales! Not prices! Study this … it tells a very interesting story.
  2. Looking at absolute high in sales and prices. No matter the increases – we are still WAY behind previous highs. 
  3. 5-year December sales/price/active/new listing comparison. Year 2024 over year 2023/2022/2021/2020

1. Rolling total SNAPSHOT 2024 VANCOUVER + FRASER VALLEY – ONGOING SALES CRASH

Let’s take a longer view by analyzing sales over a longer period and a “rolling total.”

We use the 12 months between DEC 31 – DEC 31 the following year. Eyepopper!

Vancouver INCREDIBLE 12 mos. RUNNING TOTAL (SF) – 50%
DEC 31, 2020 – DEC 31 2021  sales 14,161
DEC 31, 2023 – DEC 31 2024   sales  7,562

Major Point: Dramatic 4-year snapshot on crashing sales (SF DOWN NEAR 50% OVER 2020). But very steady prices in both condo and SF sectors. 

FRASER VALLEY INCREDIBLE 12 mos. RUNNING TOTAL (SF)
DEC 31, 2020 – DEC 31 2021  sales 11,913
DEC 31, 2023 – DEC 31 2024   sales  5,477

Major Point: Dramatic 4-year snapshot on crashing sales (SF DOWN NEAR 60% OVER 2020/2021). But very steady prices in both condo and SF sectors.
 

2. Let’s keep looking at DECEMBER 2024 comparison to the ALL-TIME HIGHS ACHIEVED: (Comparing different months is only meaningful if you want to know ABSOLUTE HIGHS)

VANCOUVER DECEMBER 2024 
HIGHEST PAST MONTHLY PRICE AND SALES COMPARED TO DECEMBER 2024

 

3. VANCOUVER SF and condos Sales UP! Prices about even. At least this December over last December. Down sharply from June 2024. Well below the 10-year average.

VANCOUVER: Here is a 5-year month of DEC 2024 over the month of DEC 2023/2022/2021/2020 comparison.



Major Point:

V – Condo – New Listings were up  03% in November, up 29% in December!!

SF sales  are NOW BETTER THAN 2023/2022. BUT still below previous years – sharply below 2021 and 2020.
NOTE: Better y-o-y! BUT sales SF and CONDO sales down from October. SF October – 724, Condo – 1,396.


FRASER VALLEY
Here is a 5-year DEC 2024 over DEC 2023/2022/2021/2020 comparison.



Major Point:

FV – SF        Active listings were up     04% in November,    up   9% in December
FV – Condo  Active Listings  were up   20% in November,    up 30% in December
FV – SF        New listings    were up     13% in November,   up  48% in December!!!
FV –  Condo  New Listings     were up  09% in November,   up 42% In December.

Fraser Valley – SF Sales are UP 19%. Condo sales UP 12%. 
Note: Also better y-oy. BUT sales down from October: SF-522. Condo 394.
Note: Whopping price increase in SF houses of $200,000 in the month. Likely some very big sales came through.

MAJOR, MAJOR POINT:

Listings are rising in December – unusual. 

NOTE on RATES:

Fixed 10-year bond rates rose as much as .7% in the US. 30-year mortgages followed up by over .6% to 7%! However, they reversed the last 4 days by .4%.  So, stay in variable. RBC and TD expects now to be matched against the BOC overnight rate projected at 2%. (Fixed rates follow the bond market, variable rates follow the BOC policy rate.)

That should make for a reasonable first quarter.

High unemployment and the pending recession are the fly in the proverbial ointment.

Major, Major Point:

Why are prices higher while sales have fallen so sharply? As you know my hobby horse for 20 years has been my focus on “the most unreported inflation of all times”. All resting on debt and money creation by governments.

We get carried away talking about a 2% rate target, core, and headline inflation rates … and separating food and other costs etc. … but then we forget that it is cumulative and most remains unreported. Just match the PPI and the various CPI. You will get what I mean…

Our money is valued less, it buys less of everything … everything is more expensive, the upshot …you do not even see it most of the time…

Fact is? Well, even if you added only the reported (unreported and understated) inflation rates, you would find that our inflation rate was likely 25% – 30% in the last 3 years. That means that our money has been devalued by what we end up paying for new goods, yes … including real estate.

So, make a small profit, get it taxed right out of your hand … but either way it buys you 25% less house anyway or you have to pay – eventually 25% more.

That is the big secret!

You think you are better off – but at best you are even….

Jurock Video YouTube channel.

WANT TO PARTICIPATE?

Go to realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory at bcred.ca

OZZIE’S YOUTUBE CHANNEL

You can watch all videos and podcasts on my YouTube channel at youtube.com/jurockvideo. It is a great way to check on what I said 10 years ago.

Moneytalks Podcast

Ozzie, Michael Campbell, Michael Levy and Victor Adair and guests are now on podcasts every week: mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/ (See Victor Adair’s Trading Desk notes! victoradair.ca)

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Disclaimer

Please note that any response to any email or any invitation to any meeting is accepted on the understanding that “Jurock Real Estate Insider (JREI)”, “OzBuzz (OB)”, “JCIR (JC)” as the case may be, are not responsible for any result or results of any action or actions taken in reliance upon any information contained in this posting or meeting, nor for any errors contained therein or presented thereat or omissions in relation thereto. It is further understood that the said OB or JREI, or JCIR as the case may be, do not, pursuant to this posting, purport to render legal, accounting, tax, financial, planning, or other professional advice. The said OB and JREI and JCIR may or may not own properties discussed at meetings or receive or not receive referral fees at any meeting you may attend as a result of this posting or invitation. The said OB and JREI and JCIR, as the case may be, hereby disclaim all and any, liability to any person, whether a purchaser of any offering, a reader of any offering, or, otherwise, arising in respect of this postings and of the consequences of anything done or purported to be done by any such person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of these postings. If you respond to any posting OB or JREI and JCIR or attend any meeting from and by said companies, we fully expect that you get independent legal/tax/investment/mortgage advice as the case may be.

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