Oz Buzz 107: Carney – Housing Promises, Promises! Facts?

May 19, 2025

1. Video: “Bangkok to Beachfront: Investing in Thailand’s Skyline and Shoreline”

• Want to buy a Thailand condo? Live there 1 month and then Airbnb?
• Watch Marc Jurock and Ozzie discussing the ideas.
• Also, on May 24, Marc will hold a Thailand real estate seminar in Vancouver

2. Video: “How to stay ahead of the municipality” when using your SGF home as an opportunity to build a 6 plex. HOW to max profit on SF lot! Must plan, learn to work-around your cities with Expert Planner’s Vision.

Gary Pooni, award winning planner and ultimate expert explains.

Check out the course “New Era for Housing Development.”

Details on new course at instagram.com/poonigroup

(Each video is also available AS A PODCAST on
Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Pocketcast and many others!)
See ozbuzz.ca/category/podcasts/

AGENDA

• MOODY’S DOWNGRADED US CREDIT (LAST TIME? 1917!)
• THAILAND REAL ESTATE MEET-UP THIS WEEK
• REGISTER FOR A 25% DISCOUNT CONDO NOW! BRAND NEW FINISHED!
• CARNEY – HOUSING PROMISES, PROMISES!FACTS?
• INFLECTION POINT ACTIONS YOU MUST TAKE
• 3 GRAND VIDEOS THIS ISSUE
• 3 ‘NUMBERS’ GRAPHS –
  RUNNING TOTAL SALES DOWN 50%!
  HIGHEST PRICE ACHIEVED
  5-YEAR APRIL TO APRIL COMPARISON

• MORTGAGE FOCUS – 7 TIPS
• MORTGAGE PENALTY CALCULATOR
• INFLATION/ECONOMY/
• INTEREST RATES
• QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

THAILAND THOUGHTS

Join us on May 24th for a dynamic three-hour seminar designed for investors, expatriates, and property enthusiasts eager to explore Thailand’s investment real estate market. From the soaring condos of Bangkok’s central districts to the resort city extraordinaire of Pattaya to the paradise islands of Phuket and Koh Samui, this event will provide an introduction overview of opportunities across Thailand’s most desirable urban, coastal locations and is focused on 100% Foreign Ownership. Fee simple, freehold 100% ownership.

You’ll hear from ‘boots on the ground’ professionals who will share actionable insights on property ownership laws, investment strategies, and up-and-coming hotspots. Whether you’re looking to diversify your portfolio, find a dream second home, or capitalize on Thailand’s growing appeal as a lifestyle destination, this seminar offers the clarity and connections to get you started.

Register with Marc Jurock: https://shorturl.at/fg4bh

PROMISES, PROMISES, PROMISES  (CARNEY SAID SO)

• Carney: NO GST on new houses under $1 million for 1^st time buyers.
• Poilievre: No GST on new home under $1.3 million for any buyer.

WHAT CARNEY PROMISED:

• NEW: Massive Construction Goal: The Liberals aim to construct 4 million new homes by 2031, targeting an annual build rate of 500,000 units. (HA!) 
• Providing financing to accelerate housing projects. This will…? double the pace of home construction to nearly 500,000 new units annually? (HA!?)

NEW: Federal participation in homebuilding, with the government acting as a developer to expedite construction (HAHA!)

NEW: Affordable Housing Financing: A total of $10 billion is allocated for affordable housing projects, with $4 billion designated for long-term fixed-rate financing and $6 billion for rapid development of deeply affordable, supportive, and Indigenous housing. (HMM!?)

1. Build Canada Homes (BCH)

• Constructing affordable housing on public lands. (WHICH? Federal, Provincial, municipal?)
• Catalyzing a new housing industry focused on factory-built homes. $25 billion (Ha!)
• Zoning reforms to encourage higher-density housing development, particularly near transit lines. Eliminating unit maximums.
  Abolishing parking minimums.
  Allowing taller buildings to promote urban densification. 
• ​ Federal government plans to halve municipal development charges for five years (similar to BC?)

Environmental sustainability is a cornerstone of the housing plan.

• Implementing low-carbon building practices
• Encouraging energy-efficient designs
• Reducing urban sprawl through smart growth strategies.
• GST Rebate on Rental Developments: A temporary removal of GST on new residential rental developments until the end of 2030.

Major Point: Sounds good. Devil is always in the details. I was hopeful for similar promises the last 8 years. Didn’t happen! BUT let’s see what he does. He just started.

MORTGAGES REDUX

A number of questions on everything to do with mortgages. People worried about renewing, going long or short, variable or fixed. Mostly the questions centered on where to compare rates, deals and penalties. Ok here are some tips:

1. According to the OFSI up to 76 percent of renewals will take place by end of 2026 (!).
2. As of May 15, 2025, the average 5-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada is approximately 4.61%, with some lenders offering rates as low as 3.84% for high-ratio insured mortgages.
3. The overnight rates in Canada determine the variable rates your bank offers.
4. Remember the rate in the bank window is an invitation to be NEGOTIATED.
5. Fixed Rates are tied to 3/5/10 year bond rates and in the last few days the 10-year US bond has climbed by .4% reflecting the (scared?) view of investors. US mortgage rates will be over 6% for a while.
6. BUT THAT’S IN THE US. Canada Bond rates are 3.25% … thus the lower fixed mortgage rates below 5% and even below 4%!

Tips for Securing the Best Mortgage Rate

• Compare Offers: Use online platforms like Ratehub.ca and Nesto.ca to compare rates from various lenders.
• Note: Mortgages are now allowed to be transferred between banks = check a competitor bank. 
• Note: Sales have crashed (see below) so has the mortgage business. Banks love you and will try to steal you from your existing bank. Feel stolen!  If you have good credit…you have a lot of room to negotiate.
• Negotiate: Don’t hesitate to negotiate with lenders; even a slight reduction in rate can lead to significant savings over time. (Review at NerdWallet.)
• Consider Mortgage Type: High ratio insured mortgages often come with lower rates but require mortgage insurance.

• Lock in Rates: If you anticipate rising rates, consider locking in a rate with a pre-approval. 5-year fixed are not bad at all. And NO, we will not see 2% again!
• Watch and consider penalties.
• Fixed rate penalties are usually based on the interest rate differential – very expensive.
• Variable usually are 3-month interest. But check!
• Go to wowa.ca – they have a great Mortgage Penalty Calculator.

Major Point: There are many mortgage brokers. But get a professional! Talk to a professional mortgage broker, like Kyle Green from Green Mortgage or Jared Dreyer from Verico. Their experts will give you personal tailormade advice.

Get ALL the facts on YOUR personal mortgage before you commit!

QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS

Q: WHAT EXACTLY IS AN INFLECTION POINT IN AN ECONOMY? (29 QUESTIONS!)
A: Economically speaking an inflection point is a substantial shift in trends. These shifts can result from technological innovations, policy changes, geopolitical events, or unforeseen crises. Examples:

• Economy: 1999 Dot.com crisis. 2008/ Financial Crisis
• Invention: Introduction of the iPhone in 2007
• Health crisis: COVID-19 Pandemic

Implications of a major inflection point are the massive impact on your personal wealth depend on the decisions you make at such a point! Thus, recognizing inflection points is crucial for policymakers, businesses and – you better believe it – real estate investors. A major action taking shift is needed. 

Major Points: Where are we at today?

Today: Invention: AI is at an inflection point. Economy: Major shifts because massive debts, tariffs, world in crisis. Health: Longevity. Of course there are a hundred more that could affect you and yours.

Major Point: As a real estate investor you are at the cusp of a massive shift. Review all your assets, your holdings … which of your holdings are at an inflection point and how will you survive all possible outcomes.

We also got a lot of hurrahs on the Assessment Plan last month and recommendations. Well, we now tackle it a little deeper. IF and I mean, IF, we are at a major inflection point.

POSSIBLE ADVANCED STRATEGIES REAL ESTATE INVESTORS REVIEW AT AN ECONOMIC INFLECTION POINT

1. Diversify Across Asset Classes and Geographies 

Diversification remains a cornerstone of risk management.

• Asset Class Diversification: Balance your portfolio by investing in various real estate sectors such as residential, commercial, industrial, and specialized areas like student housing or senior living.
• Geographic Diversification: Expand your investments beyond local markets to include regions with strong economic indicators and growth potential. This approach can mitigate localized risks and tap into emerging opportunities.
• Seniors diversification
• Study the rentvest options from last month.

2. Embrace AI  Technology is reshaping the real estate landscape.

CHECK OUT ALL THE NEW AI:

• Protech Integration: Utilize property technology solutions for efficient property management, tenant engagement, and data analytics. Understand Quantum is coming!
• Blockchain and Tokenization: As a larger holder of real estate assets: Explore blockchain technology for secure and transparent transactions. Tokenization can enhance liquidity by allowing fractional ownership of properties.
• Which AI should I use? Take a day off and study all that are currently available and THEN PICK ONE! Treat it like your assistant … and forget the rest. From a recent speech at VERICO, HOMELIFE AND MUSTANT:

3. Leverage Alternative Financing Options 

Diversify your funding sources to enhance financial flexibility.

Private Equity and Crowdfunding: Consider raising capital through private equity firms or real estate crowdfunding platforms to access a broader investor base.

Joint Ventures: Partner with other investors or developers to share risks and pool resources for larger projects.

4. Implement Dynamic Asset Management 

Proactive asset management can optimize returns and adapt to market changes.

Regular Portfolio Reviews: As last month: Conduct periodic assessments of your holdings to identify underperforming assets and reallocate resources accordingly. Not just REVIEW: ACTION!

Value-Add Strategies: Renovations, repositioning, improved management practices? New income and appreciation?

Sell losers asap, Cash is not trash in 2025.

QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS

Q: YOU KEEP TALKING ABOUT TRUMP AS AN AUTHOR. WHAT HAS HE WRITTEN OTHER THAN “THE DEAL”?
A: I don’t know that TITLE. DONALD TRUMP wrote 15 books.

HIS MOST WELL-KNOWN BOOKS:
“TRUMP :”THE ART OF THE DEAL”
“SURVIVING AT THE TOP”,
“THE ART OF THE COMEBACK,”
“THE AMERICA WE DESERVE”,
“HOW TO GET RICH”.
“TRUMP: THE BEST REAL ESTATE ADVICE I EVER RECEIVED” (Yes, I wrote a chapter in it.)

Q: LOOKS LIKE YOUR ASSESSMENT ON TARIFFS IS PROVEN TO BE RIGHT!
A: Not everyone would agree. But we stick to last month’s outlook. Carney’s shoulder back stance? He reversed most Canadian retaliatory tariffs already. Trump is continuously negotiating and has agreed he will not touch the USMTA agreement.

Q: YOU SAY THE GOVT (IN 2017) WANTED US TO REPORT SALES OF RESIDENCE FOR TAX REASONS. COULD THERE NOT BE A SIMPLER EXPLANATION?
A: Simpler? No. Wanting to tax gains is the simpler explanation.

Q: I’M A NEW SUBSCRIBER. MAN, WHAT I MISSED! I JUST GOT SO TAKEN BY #106, THAT I WENT BACK AT PAST ISSUES. I COULD MENTION SEVERAL. YOUR ISSUE #103 ON ‘WORKING FROM HOME” REALLY HIT HOME. MY GANG IS COMING BACK TO WORK! 
A: It’s your company, your vision, your caring, your future and your values! Middle management and all white-collar work is getting crunched by AI and by working from home! Hundred thousand jobs last first quarter.

COMMENTS
C: LIKED THE VIDEO ON HOME EQUTY TAX YOU POSTED ON OZBUZZ 106. BUT I LIKED YOUR 2 VIDEOS ON YOUTUBE EVEN BETTER. KEEP UP THE WORK.
A: Thanks, yes, it currently has attracted 15,600 views! Most AFTER the election. Missed it?
Here it is…watch it and weep: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krxidqzXkwY&t=9s

Thanks for all the comments and questions.

NOTE:
I answer all questions to a video I post on Youtube.com/jurockvideo

C: Very impressed with Vlad. …on another note I wanted to say how impressed I was with Vlad Misyankin. After watching your you tube interview with Vlad last fall, we ended up reaching out him and engaged him to find us a property in Florida. We found something to our liking in march and closed on it at the end of april. We are planning on using it as a short term rental. I felt Vlad worked tirelessly for us from finding the property to negotiating the sale and organizing various property inspections. He has tons of connections and hook-ups. He very quickly had our property furnished and ready to list on airbnb. We could not have pulled this off without his involvement. I would highly recommend him to anyone looking to purchase real-estate in sw Florida. He is also very responsive.
A: Thanks Vlad, your actions reflect well on all of us.

Q: OZZIE, WE HEAR OF ALL CONDO PRICES BEING SLASHED ACROSS THE BOARD BY 25%? TRUE?
A: We would be talking likely about condos that are finished and unsold held by a developer. It certainly IS NOT ALL CONDOS! Look up KEY MARKETING – THEY HAVE A BLOW OUT SALE OF EXISTING CONDOS. REGISTER HERE: https://condoday.ca/  25% OFF IN ONE DAY FOR REMAINING UNSOLD UNITS on May 31!

ECONOMY

Review Issue #106. Still watch unemployment – fear is increasing. 

NOTE!!!

Now on May 16 Moody’s downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the first time since 1917 that the U.S. lacks a top-tier rating from all major agencies. This downgrade was attributed to escalating federal debt, projected to reach 134% of GDP by 2035, and persistent fiscal deficits. Bond markets SPIKED:

• The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield now briefly above 5%, highest since October 2023.
• The 10-year yield rose to approximately 4.7%.
• Stock indices went sideways, and the U.S. dollar weakened.
• Trump’s proposed $3.8 trillion tax-cut bill did not help, adding $3–5 trillion to the national debt in 10  years. Possible? Investors who sell off bonds in protest of unsustainable fiscal policies. Likely? Tax cuts will actually help if the Republicans get their act together,

Major Point: Canada hasn’t faced a recent credit downgrade, but our bond yields can be influenced by US rates: The 10-year bond yield on May 16 went DOWN to 3.17% – well below US rates, (see above impact on Canada fixed rates.

Our fiscal position is currently stronger than that of the U.S., with a projected deficit of 1.6% of GDP compared to the U.S.’s 6.4%. (BTW another inflection Point!)

Q: THANKS FOR THE REAL ESTATE PORTFOLIO, ACTION PLAN. I CAN’T BELIEVE THAT I NEVER SAT DOWN AND DID SUCH AN EXERCISE WITH MY 8 DIVERSE RENTALS
A: See extension of this today under Inflection Point.

SUMMARY OUTLOOK

(You’ll get Oz Buzz 2 weeks before it’s posted online)