Oz Buzz

“Any politician promising not to raise your taxes is like a vampire promising to become a vegetarian.” 

–Poilievre

June 17, 2025

1. Ozzie talks: People do not do what you expect them to do… (YouTube shorts) https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-slFIWLGQos

2. Ozzie Real Estate Talks 25% discount sales continuing with 30%!

3. Ozzie Real Estate Talks: 18,000 people watched ozzie’s video on this: What is it? Home Equity Tax and Principal Residence Exemption! 2 things to worry about! Really Worry!

AGENDA

  • OZZIE TALKS ON YOUTUBE.COM/JUROCKVIDEO
  • 18,000 PEOPLE WATCH THE TAX VIDEO!
  • OZZIE TAKES ON ‘GOLD VERSUS REAL ESTATE’. THE WINNER IS…?
  • THAILAND REAL ESTATE VIDEO AVAILABLE FROM MARC JUROCK
  • INFLECTION POINT ACTIONS YOU MUST TAKE
  • HOW TO HIRE A PROFESSIONAL REALTOR IN TOUGH TIMES
  • THE NUMBERS
  1. STUDY 3 ‘NUMBERS’ GRAPHS – RUNNING TOTAL SALES DOWN 50%!
  2. HIGHEST PRICE ACHIEVED
  3. 5 – YEAR MAY TO MAY COMPARISON
  • CARNEY PROMISES
  • INFLATION/ECONOMY/ INTEREST RATES
  • QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

THAILAND THOUGHTS 

If you missed the live show by Marc Jurock … you can ask for the video here: marcjurock@gmail.com

QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS

Q: On the Carney promises. So we get the promises, we don’t believe and we will be right. What to do? 
A: Work harder next time to persuade voters to get it right.

Q: Liked your mortgage redux. Although in this context it wasn’t a redux?
A: Huh? ChatGPT says: Therefore, “mortgage redux” typically signifies a revisitation or resurgence of mortgage-related issues or themes.

Jean Chrétien: “A proof is a proof. What kind of proof? It’s a proof. And when you have a good proof, its because its proven”

Q: I have come into some money. Is now a good time to buy Whistler?
A:  Listings are rising, sales are falling. US dollar is down 6% – fewer US buyers. So yes, good time to look, make offers. Hire experienced local Realtor. Whistler needs local expertise.

Q: We have your price numbers. However, they don’t match the numbers from other reporters.
A: Well, different strokes for different folks. I am also not a reporter. I analyze. Some report median, some average, some benchmark prices. Others use month over previous month, some years previous years.

Our numbers come from the boards and for consistency (since 1993) we use average numbers. For area some use Vancouver centre or include everything from Squamish to Maple Ridge. Some throw SF and condos together, etc… Just watch what you compare to what.

Here is what the estimable Bob Rennie report says: 

“May sales were 34% below the past 10-year average of 5,117 sales.This was the second fewest in the month of May in available data back to 2005 (only May 2020 saw fewer at 2,254 sales due to the Covid-19 pandemic).  

  • Detached home sales were the furthest below average (-46%,to1,088), followed by condos (-30%, to1,438) and town homes (-29%,to 693).
  • Sales were down 19% from 4,131 in May 2024. Detached homes were down the most year-over-year (-21%), followed by condos (-19%) and town homes (-15%).”

Q: Loved your inflection points. Not totally understood but fog well lifted. I like the different trends, Now we must add war.
A: Thanks and yes.

Q: What a great show on AI. I like the explanations.
A: Not sure whether you refer to last month’s Ozbuzz blog or jurockvideos, but thanks…

Q: Was looking for your video. I assumed it was on real estate. I saw only new motivational shorts. Where did I go wrong?
A: Blush. I promise a new real estate update on video week of June 17.

Q: How can you say interest rates below 4% for a 5-year fixed are good rates. 2% is a good rate.
A: Haha: 1% would even be better! But look: In 50 years (look at a previous Oz Buzz) the 5-year fixed rates were under 5% only in 9 years! (mostly between 2016, etc.) Fixed rates are tied to the bond rates, variable mortgage rates to the overnight rates. Currently rates are rising and are mostly over 4.3 % but with good credit and haggling may still get you 4%. If it is your home, get it for 5 years fixed (if you plan to stay there) and sleep. If you are a flipper, go very short term.

Q: Gold versus real estate – Gold wins? Real Estate wins?
A: I apologize to the subscriber who sent me this URL (I mislaid your email, but here goes answer): his seemingly seems to prove that gold outperforms real estate. Please note that I debated in 2012 at the World Outlook Conference in Vancouver that very question with a gold expert. Please note this is my opinion only. I do not disagree with the method used to take number of ounces divided into home prices. But I do believe that from an investors point of view the numbers used must absolutely be 100% correct and one has to understand massive hard asset inflation and the key: Leverage.

Note that for the average investor, the time you pick makes the difference. I.e. in 1980 an ounce of gold was $800…it then went like a yo-yo up and down, up and down until 2007 (27 years!!!) and got only that year back to $800 (or so.) Had you bought a house in 1980 ($100,000) and stayed there during the time gold gyrated for 27 years – it soared to $730,011. But the most overlooked fact is that in gold you do not have leverage. Or at least the average person does not have leverage (‘margin’ is not leverage) when buying gold. Cash on the barrel head. That 1980 $100,000 house likely was bought with $5,000 down. So, working out the percentage increase of $5,000 to $730,000 you get: Your original $5,000 turned into $730,000—a massive 145‑fold increase, or 14.5  thousand percent growth over those 27 years. Also, gold stored does not pay interest, gold needs to be stored safely and your money is dead. Now, should you have 5% – 10% in gold? Coins! Sure, but for the average person in a highly inflationary asset inflation environment… Gold is a very minor player.

PS: Please note: The RE numbers used in the article seem to be a conglomeration of SF, condo and townhouse prices. NOT current RE Bord average or median prices! The price graph shows ‘HOUSE’(?) – at $1.2 million in 2025. Look down below this blog – it shows the May average SF house is over $2 million still. (Vancouver Real Estate Board). 

IN TODAYS DIFFICULT REAL ESTATE SALES ENVIRONMENT, THE QUESTION OF HOW TO BEST HIRE A REALTOR ARISES DAILY

As a past realtor who has weathered more than one market downturn, let me be clear: now is not the time to gamble with who you hire to sell your home. In a falling market, experience, strategy, and commitment matter more than ever. I discussed some necessities with Bent Roberts the NO 1 Realtor in the Valley why hiring a successful, full-time realtor is essential when the market starts to slide:

Ozzie: Why do you need an experienced realtor?
Brent: A seasoned realtor who has lived through the ups and downs—booms, busts, and everything in between. They don’t panic. They adapt. Their advice is rooted in real-world experience, not guesswork. They know how to navigate a changing market. What works and what doesn’t.

Ozzie: But every realtor is on MLS, why experienced?
Brent: Well, your cousin may have a real estate licence, and your neighbour might sell a home or two a year. But in a shifting market, part-timers and hobby agents can cost you serious money. You need a full-time professional who studies the numbers, analyses trends, and is fully invested in getting your home sold, not someone who dabbles on weekends.

Ozzie: I think pricing is so important. I told a conference of over 100 realtors recently that if your owner wants to “test the market”…don’t take the listing.
Brent: Yes, strategic pricing is everything. In a declining market, overpricing your home is the fastest way to end up chasing buyers. A top realtor knows how to price your property aggressively but realistically, to draw attention early and avoid painful price reductions later. Timing and positioning are critical.

Ozzie: OK, how do you attract serious buyers?
Brent: The best realtors have networks, systems, and marketing strategies that work. They use professional photography, targeted online ads, and buyer databases to make sure your listing doesn’t get lost in the shuffle. Constant new visibility equals results.

Ozzie: Well, negotiation is very important.
Brent: Negotiation skills can make or break your deal. Buyers tend to be bolder when prices are falling. An experienced realtor doesn’t just “present” offers. They negotiate fiercely on owner’s behalf to protect their bottom line. Every dollar matters, and a strong negotiator makes the difference.

Ozzie: What mistakes are commonly made in a falling market?
Brent : Mistakes can be in overpricing to poor timing or accepting weak offers too quickly, even small missteps can lead to major losses. A skilled realtor knows how to guide through each step strategically, helping avoid the traps.

Ozzie: Is it tough to be confident in a tough market?
Brent: Yes, as an owner you must look for confidence, not chaos. Selling a home is stressful enough without market uncertainty. A great realtor brings calm, clarity, and confidence to the process. You’ll know what’s happening, why it matters, and what to expect…no surprises, just results. In a falling market, who you hire isn’t just important: it’s everything. This is a time for professionals, not part-timers. Your equity deserves protection, your sale deserves a plan, and you deserve someone who knows how to get it done right.

Ozzie: Good advice Brent. (You can reach Brent at brent@brentroberts.com)

Q: What about the foreign buyer ban. Should we not cancel that? 
A: We have argued a) Foreigners did not increase prices (stats show marginal 1%) and b) better get the properties built and then penalized and taxed, than no building – as now. For foreigners that wanted to invest commercially (national no tax add on allowed). However, in BC there is an additional 20% tax!

COMMENTS

  • So many TRUMP haters. Get a life!
  • Dozens of questions on whether this or that presale building is a good one. Can’t answer it. These are tough times for some developers. Stay with big boys.
  • Dozens of questions about areas to buy in. If it is personal residence, well its PERSONAL Just spend time researching.
  • Thanks for all the comments and questions. NOTE: I TRY TO GET TO ALL THE questions. If you have a question, put this in the subject line:‘Subject: Ozbuzz Question” If you are a subscriber, I will answer.

Also look for answer at Youtube.com/jurockvideo

SUMMARY OUTLOOK

We expected last month there would be more clarity after the election. But we also expected a different outcome. As we said last month: We were wrong…Loss of clarity, increased uncertainty and downright fear is upon us more daily. Inflection Point continues down. Watch Ozzie’s latest video on Canada Outlook.

Remember: You are reading Ozzie’s opinion, not advice! And, yes, I have lots of opinions! But use only your personal professional lawyer/realtor/accountant/ to make any personal investment.

THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS

TORONTO 

  • MAY SF Sales May 2024: 7,206 / MAY 2025: 6,244. Down 13%. Condo sales down 26%
  • MAY Listings 2024: 21,880, MAY 2025 – 30,904 – UP 42%
  • Average Prices down 5% – 7%

Calgary

  • Sales down 17%
  • Active listings UP 97%!!!
  • Prices up 6% (Benchmark price: down 3%)

Edmonton

  • Sales down 8% – 13%
  • Listings up 13%
  • Prices up 5%

There were 2,967 residential unit sales, an 8% decrease from May 2024. Apartment Condominium unit sales were down 12.6% from the previous year. Listings in the GEA increased 20 month-over-month and 13% year-over-year. The total residential average price in May 2025 was $464,277, reflecting an overall growth of 5.2% compared to May 2024.

BRITISH COLUMBIA 

The total sales dollar volume was $6.7 billion, a 17.1 per cent decrease from the same time the previous year. BC MLS® unit sales were 26 per cent lower than the ten-year May average.

“All regions of BC have seen declining home sales activity through the first five months of the year with more expensive markets slowing the most,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. Year-to-date, sales are down 9 per cent year-over-year at 28,692 units, while the average MLS® residential price is also down 4.2 per cent to $954,312.

From BCREA – study your local area, hire a local professional.

VANCOUVER AND FRASER VALLEY

3 ways to look at the numbers:

  1. Looking at a full year ‘rolling total’ of the last 4 years
  2. Comparing MAY prices and sales to the highest ever achieved
  3. Comparing MAY sales/listings to the MAY of 2025/24/23/22/21

1. WE USE THE ROLLING 12 MONTHS between MAY 31 – MAY 31 the following year. Eyepopper!

FRASER VALLEY INCREDIBLE 12 mos. RUNNING TOTAL (SF)
MAY 31, 2021 – MAY 31 2022 sales 9,076
MAY 31, 2024 – MAY 31 2025 sales 4,769

Major Point: Dramatic 4-year snapshot on crashing sales (SF DOWN 45% OVER 2021/2022). But very steady prices in both condo and SF sectors.

2. ALL-TIME HIGHS ACHIEVED: (Comparing different months is only meaningful if you want to know ABSOLUTE HIGHS.)


3. VANCOUVER SF AND CONDOS

Sales and Prices of MAY over last MAY. SF down sharply from June 2024 – 15%. Well below the 10-year average.

Major Point Vancouver:

Condo – New Listings were actually DOWN -02% y-o-y in MAY! Active Listings up 19%
SF Sales – Down 22% from 2024 and very sharply below 2022 and 2021 (more than -60%)
Price? – Down 8% over May but 15% from June 2024
NOTE: Sales down y-o-y as well as active listings up across the board! 

FRASER VALLEY: Here is a 5-year MAY 2025 over MAY 2024/2023/2022/2021 comparison.

Major Point:

FV – SF Active listings, up 24% in MAY
FV – Condo  Active Listings  up 31% in MAY
FV – Sales down SF – 23%! Condo sales down 24% over 2024. Way down over 2021 – 779!

Sold but not built yet: What about pre-sales? The Vancouver and Valley market have seen the most dramatic offers I have ever seen. 25 – 35% discounts, 5% down, buy back before closing etc., etc. Be very careful that the developer has the financial strength needed to complete!

Major Point: As last month: Keep making your low-ball offers … this is the best time to get your new digs (ready in 3-4 years). Hot deals will stop eventually.

Built but not sold yet: Insiders say some 5,000 units are newly built, finished but not sold. Developers have started to slash prices. We mentioned Key Marketing’s 25% off the price of the Belvedere high-rise. A success on May 31! We now hear of several builders following suit with slashing prices, I.e. Aquilini – 30% off … etc.

1.2 million mortgages coming up for renewal in 2025.

MAJOR, MAJOR POINT: As always, we say that there is no best deal market, there are only best deals that you negotiate! And in 2025 you CAN negotiate. Hire quality experienced realtors, quality experienced mortgage brokers (not all brokers have access to all lenders).

WANT TO PARTICIPATE?

Go to realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory at bcred.ca

OZZIE’S YOUTUBE CHANNEL

You can watch all videos and podcasts on my YouTube channel at youtube.com/jurockvideo. It is a great way to check on what I said 10 years ago.

Moneytalks Podcast

Ozzie, Michael Campbell, Michael Levy and Victor Adair and guests are now on podcasts every week: mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/ (See Victor Adair’s Trading Desk notes! victoradair.ca)

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Please note that any response to any email or any invitation to any meeting is accepted on the understanding that “Jurock Real Estate Insider (JREI)”, “OzBuzz (OB)”, “JCIR (JC)” as the case may be, are not responsible for any result or results of any action or actions taken in reliance upon any information contained in this posting or meeting, nor for any errors contained therein or presented thereat or omissions in relation thereto. It is further understood that the said OB or JREI, or JCIR as the case may be, do not, pursuant to this posting, purport to render legal, accounting, tax, financial, planning, or other professional advice. The said OB and JREI and JCIR may or may not own properties discussed at meetings or receive or not receive referral fees at any meeting you may attend as a result of this posting or invitation. The said OB and JREI and JCIR, as the case may be, hereby disclaim all and any, liability to any person, whether a purchaser of any offering, a reader of any offering, or, otherwise, arising in respect of this postings and of the consequences of anything done or purported to be done by any such person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of these postings. If you respond to any posting OB or JREI and JCIR or attend any meeting from and by said companies, we fully expect that you get independent legal/tax/investment/mortgage advice as the case may be.

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