August 8, 2022
“We say that a man at 17 with many girls is romancing, in his forties he is womanizing, and in his seventies, he is financing.”
!!!LANDRUSH!!! IN PERSON – LIVE AGAIN!!!
The 29th ANNUAL LAND RUSH CONFERENCE IS COMING ON SEPTEMBER 10th!
ALL SPEAKERS AND SPONSORS ARE LISTED BELOW…MORE DETAILS? Buy tickets?
GO TO LANDRUSHCANADA.COM
This year’s theme:
‘THE SKY IS NOT FALLING! IT’S TRUE – BUT WHAT TO DO?’
Speakers present and debate investment opportunities IN A RECESSION ENVIRONMENT
Find out, how: Beat inflation and rent controls with Airbnbs; Best mortgage secrets; investing in mortgage funds; Revitalized Whalley; cashflow in a shifting market; Edmonton deals; Kelowna specials; BC’s waterfront; US real estate; Maple Ridge; Surrey; Langley; Transit-oriented developments; Richmond, US foreclosures; Forecasts on economy and most Canadian markets with a special focus on Alberta and BC and total investor focus. Watch what you invest in 2023; How to make money and how not to lose it!
Go to www.landrushcanada.com for details.
- WORLD ECONOMY SNAPSHOT AND FORECAST
- INFLATION / DEFLATION
- US DOLLAR
- ASTOUNDING SF PRICE CRASH CONTINUES IN JULY
- SALES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET EVERYWHERE
- THE NUMBERS: JULY 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019
- LIST OF SPEAKERS
- LIST OF SPONSORS (JOIN SPONSORS HERE: WWW.LANDRUSHCANADA.COM)
DEAR SUBSCRIBERS. PLEASE NOTE
I have been bombarded with requests for “THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS.” So, here are the latest July numbers. This is OzBuzz 73 – 1
The usual items particularly “QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS” etc. will be published next week as OzBuzz 73 – 2. We received a record seventy-four questions. WOW! You may go to Ozzie’s askanexpert.ca for the answers to some, but the rest comes in the form of OzBuzz 73 – 2.
WORLD ECONOMY SNAPSHOT
England raises rates highest in 27 years. Germany raises rates. The ECB raises rates for the first time in 11 years and is finally back out of negative rates (which OzBuzz always said was a doubtful way to manage the world anyway).
The US dollar remains strong and will be higher yet, as forecast, which will put the undeveloped world borrowers (countries) into higher debt (as money was borrowed in US funds) and more SRI LANKAS will follow.
As I mentioned before, it is not the rates (we have lived thru much higher rates) but rather the speed of tightening, the speed of rising inflation, the speed of crashing prices in hard assets, massive collapses (losses) in crypto and stocks – that boggle and confuse the sane mind.
Now, there are also cracks appearing all through the credit world. None of the numbers reported can be trusted (except Ozbuzz-haha). Seriously, all numbers are from fantasy land. Now the FED calls our situation as falling inflation and forecasts a 2% rate in a year? No way! Inflation rate will not drop like they forecast. Absolute nonsense!
Housing also shows unhappy mixed reports right throughout the world.
China’s developers are going bankrupt. Tens of thousands refuse to make mortgage payments on units that have not been finished. In China, when you buy your presale you start paying a mortgage while it is being built. Some banks are refusing to give people access to their funds and banks are being beleaguered by people whose life savings are not accessible.
The US reports a much slower summer. Inventory is up 15 percent. Home builders’ stocks are reversing. And the numbers in Canada come into August sharply lower in sales and prices (see below).
The big question remains whither inflation? The stock market and the FED seem to expect inflation to be in the 2 – 3% range. OzBuzz thinks it will be at least double that. We are still flirting with 10% – 12% inflation (9% admitted) in the US and Canada. Food inflation over 20%! – No? Lately bought that $7 camembert for $13, that $20 dollar steak for $50 etc…etc.
Oh, and there will be no recession? Huh! Never in history has an inflation rate come down more than 2 percent without a recession.
Several countries now blame big oil companies, big companies in general, homeowners … actually anyone with any assets – for government ineptitude. The latest bright ideas?
Greed laws brought in in Spain, contemplated elsewhere – including the US.
Not in Canada, eh? Well, January’s UBS study recommends a tax on anyone with a one-million-dollar house (average price in Vancouver now is $2 million) to pay a tax that could cost you up to $200,000 in 10 years! Of course, we homeowners are greedy and to blame?!
As I stated in my 1998 book “Forget About Location, Location, Location” and repeated it a thousand times since: “Inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon” (Milton Friedman).
Meaning governments cause it. PERIOD. Since you and I elect governments that promise the most, we are to blame somewhat too. Or at least those that want something for nothing. Robbing Peter to pay Paul gets Paul’s vote! To the extend that you and I are Peter – watch out the Pauls aren’t massing. Too boot, they will be a lot more vocal than ever before. The creating of money out of thin air crashed Rome and a hundred countries since. Roman governments took their coins and cut out the middle and put silver in it and printed the thusly gained gold for more coins. Later they replaced silver with iron.
But is it really a monetary one? Yes.
The world owes some $300 trillion in DEBT. IT WILL NEVER REPAID. The only way it is repaid will be through higher inflation.
So, now we have had, are having and WILL HAVE a massive continuous creation of printing money. No matter who they blame or argue with. There is no other way. Plus, the US government facing mid terms elections now wants to have lower rates and lower inflation to have a chance of winning or keeping their seats.
So, the big question?
What comes next? Will the Feds stops raising rates in September? And then stop QT?
Then they have to print more money.
Indeed, it is probably 60% likely that the Fed (and Canada) may repeat the classic pivot of 2019. Could well be that July was the latest big hike, September may see a smaller hike and then no increase in November.
We now see buyer strikes, more and more strife, and protests, and so – if credit markets are drying up, housing markets continue to crater, and unemployment rate does not change … the pivot may well be in the cards.
Major Point: We still feel that there is a 40% chance that the FED will do its own dance and darn the torpedoes, go full steam ahead and NOT do what the government may want. Keep raising rates into the first quarter and really crash stocks, all equities, and all housing.
That is why we warned of a High in price in place last February and recommended that you analyze getting (for both age and market related reasons) into more cash and sitting the sidelines for 4 – 6 months (ugly 4 months again we said) till the fog lifts.
Come to Landrush you will be in a great position to get into clarity.
US DOLLAR FORECAST
Inflation target rate should be zero, not 2%. Thus, spake Economist Judy Shelton
This incredibly interesting piece highlights the problems that the FED is facing – now accelerating. Foreign countries put their reserves into the US dollar because the FED pays interest rates on reserves that it should not!
Argues Shelton: “The fed will have to pay 3.5 % by year end on 196 billion in loans. That debt is to pay banks a higher rate that they pay to other people. But the clincher: Foreign banks own 42% of the US debt money because the ECB and other foreign countries do not pay interest on reserves which the US does with the result that foreign banks keep a huge percentage of their assets in cash in the US. I.e., the BOC pays a negative 1.5% whence the US pays 3.5%. She calls it a “huge mistake”. These are ‘sterile accounts’ invested in nothing or creating economic activity.
Major Point: 1) Banks and money market funds park their money and get 3.5 %. That will also keep the US dollar going higher. 2) The US remains to be the world’s reserve currency and will go higher against all currencies (continuously). As we argued, where would you put your billions? China? Ha-ha, the Euro? Ha-ha. Canada…hm…halacha!
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS
At time of publishing the CREA has not yet released any July number stats.
Here is Toronto:
- 4,912 home sales in July 2022 – down by 47 per cent compared to July 2021. Sales were also down compared to June.
- The average selling price was up by 1.2 per cent compared to July 2021 at $1,074,754.
- The average sale price was down from February by over $200,000.
Major Point: Note the comparison of year over year and month over month. Really note the increase in average listings of 57.6%!! Compared to Vancouver’s average listings that are still showing a 10% decrease and a 7% increase in the Valley.
Edmonton saw a 9% decline in sales prices and Calgary saw a 20% decline in SF home sales. However, it showed a 48% INCREASE in condominium sales! Remarkable separation. Also listing inventory separates: Below $500,000 listings are shrinking by 18% and above $500,000 they are increasing by 20%.
THE LOWER MAINLAND MARKETS
I was admonished by some that Burnaby South has fewer sales and thus was not a good suburb to pick. Ok, but SF prices did decline further and now have dropped a whopping 23% from the high of $2,590,000 in February to $1,984,600. Condominium prices fared better (only?) down by 9%.
Ok, let us take Richmond. The average price for a SF in February clocked in at a whopping $2,308,300 in July it stands at $2,108,000 – down some $200,000 or 9%. SF sales are down 42% and condominium sales show an even higher down at -9%. Condos? Average price was $723,000 in July $677,000 – down 7% in 3 months.
This is not negative thinking. These are the facts.
As an experienced agent, I need to know NOT what the price was in 2021 at its high, but when the market turned, I need to know by how much in my specific area! Then I can inform my vendors. They in turn understand that yesterday’s price is gone until sometime in the future when invariably we will have much higher prices. Yes! But if you want to sell now – sharpen your pencils. That is what I do at Oz Buzz: Clarify your thinking!
As a (somewhat) older former branch manager through many a downturn I would instruct my agents: Be confident. The volume of sales may have dropped sharply by 50% or so…OK. We are professional agents. Dear Seller: “So what! The market drop is no problem. All we have to do is get your house into the 50% of homes that still sell! Part of that is the fact that yesteryear’s prices may come back, but if you want to sell now…here is what you need to do to sharpen your competitive pencil. Show them the facts in the numbers. Next!”
My favorite 3 words always were and still are: “So, what? Next!”
VANCOUVER/FRASER VALLEY JULY
- The high in sales were reached almost everywhere in March 2021 (2021!). The high in the average pricecame almost everywhere in Feb (Ma/Apr) 2022 (2022!)’.
- Prices will be quoted in the media as being UP and that is correct if you measure prices of today against prices of July 2021. But the decline started THIS February as we told you in our February: ‘THE HIGH IS IN PLACE’ headline,
- Also, the price increases over last July in Vancouver are only 6% in SF, when they were 17% May over May. But a drop of 12% since April!
Major Point: While year over year prices are up; the price declines THIS year are slumping in all sub-areas. All that in 5 months!
We are showing absolute monthly highs against July 2022. While some argue that at least on sales it is unfair to compare a July month against a March one. But this is just a real eye opener. We are trying to rock your (complacency) boat.
For clarity – as usual – we report the July over July results for 4 years (as usual).
VANCOUVER (4 years)
- Here we are looking at a 4-year July over July comparison.
- Remember to take the 2020 comparisons with a grain of COVID salt!
SF: (REBGV) reported SF sales declined a further 49% over July 2021. The average price achieved in April of $2,312,000 is down by $274,100 – or 12%!
CONDO: REBGV reports condominium sales are down 37% over July 2021 sales. The condo average price is down by 6% from April.
- Major Point: Study the above at the opening comparison of the ‘high in sales’ (usually March 2021) and the high in prices (usually February 2022) and note the sharp declines in sales and sharp declines in prices.
- Then note the 4-year comparisons.
SF home sales continued their sharp downturn (-59%). Prices are much lower. Active SF listings are HIGHER for the first time this year. As well as 2019 July. Condominium sales cracked as well, down 33%.
The numbers tell the story. Look at intro to the numbers and the comparison of February 2022 to July 2022, a 19% decline in single family home prices .
MAJOR, MAJOR POINT: We said last month: Again, as we said on February 9: THE HIGH IS IN PLACE. For the last 4 months we pointed to a changing market…before the interest rate changes and the stock market and crypto crashes. Now, the fast increase in rates really starts to bite. We expect that to continue and even accelerate into the summer.
LANDRUSH / OUTLOOK 2023 ON SEPTEMBER 10, 2022
Summary of speakers and sponsors ,with dozen awaiting details
GO to landrushcanada.com for details. DO IT NOW!
Ozzie Jurock – Heads up the conference since 1993 and has literally helped thousands of attendees make personal and business fortunes by his steadfast belief in the value of owning well researched, well selected real estate by understanding real estate cycles and market conditions. Come to hear his ASTOUNDING predictions for 2023. See his extensive bio at www.ozziejurock.com/about/
Our Platinum Speaking Sponsor is:
Kyle Green – Ace mortgage broker, who has been ranked one of Canada’s top brokers and has carved out a niche as an investment property specialist since 2018. Investing in real estate personally and his creative cashflow analysis has helped thousands of investors. Kyle says mortgage money is still there, but you must know where to find it. Now over 1.1 billion!
Our Gold Speaking Sponsors are:
Kelly Fry – Kelly Fry is an investment realtor and chartered accountant focusing on building wealth for her many clients. Her love for numbers has made her a natural for analyzing the perfect real estate deal and finding maximum ROI. She also loves to create cash flow and to raise capital. Learn how to make real money with AnBs.
Cam Good – Cam Good is a Canadian real estate entrepreneur, angel investor in real estate technology, and Past President of the Entrepreneurs Organization. He is Founder and President of KEY Marketing and has marketed and/or pre-sold $10 billion in 150+ condominium and townhome projects. He is widely regarded as a leading expert in the country when it comes to identifying, designing, marketing, and pre-selling residential developments for maximum value and well known for developing innovative marketing and sales strategies that led the industry out of the Great Recession of 2008 and the pandemic in 2020.
Charan Sethi – Award winning developer Charan Sethi has built some of the finest low-rise apartment buildings in Surrey and shares his vision of “the future,’ transit-oriented developments. His past predictions on the strength of the Surrey market have been spectacularly correct. Come hear his view on the Fraser Valley market with a special focus on Surrey for 2022.
James Knull – James Knull’s presence in the Real Estate Industry is truly multifaceted. As an investor himself, James has acquired almost three hundred rental units in his portfolio and has architected several large joint ventures bringing partners together to acquire great properties.
Justin Smith – Everybody wants to generate cash flow, but you need to know how. Justin Smith will teach you how to generate substantial cashflow through furnished rentals with Super Suites by hedging vacancy, tenant risk and buffers against rising inflation and interest rates through their niche furnished rental model.
Taylor Steele – Co-founder of Integrated-Equities Inc helping investors add real estate to their financial portfolio. Also helping clients invest in cash flowing properties in BC and the US, focusing on the growth that is driving the US and Canadian real estate market.
Ralph Case – Personally and with joint venture partners has purchased over 4,000 residential units in the last 15 years. An investor since 1981, he has witnessed numerous up and down economic cycles. He buys looking for low risk, cash flow and “forced appreciation”. He is co-founder with Ozzie Jurock of Jurock Case Investment Realty Inc. Real Estate investor action secrets in Canada and the US.
Marc Jurock – Marc Jurock has worked with one of the biggest, private Real Estate focused websites in Western Canada since 1997 and has also worked with thousands of individual Real Estate investors since 2001 as well as organizing two of the biggest Western Canadian Real Estate Conferences yearly until the 2014 when he became a full time Real Estate Agent.
Brent Roberts – Brent Roberts purchased his first piece of real estate at the young age of 18. He has since bought and sold over one hundred homes throughout his investment career. His portfolio has included single family homes, duplexes, condos, and strata complexes.
Our fantastic Platinum exhibitor sponsor is:
Green Mortgage– One of the top brokerages in Canada. The Green Mortgage Team can find you the mortgage money when nobody else can in these tough lending conditions.
Our fantastic Gold exhibitor sponsors are:
Westland Living – Family-owned and operated, Westland’s long legacy of homebuilding began in Vancouver with high-end single-family homes. Across our 15-year history, we have gained an appreciation for design excellence, craftsmanship, and integrated technology. Our reputation for developing quality homes grew, and we knew we wanted to make a greater impact on people. With this vision in mind, we began acquiring land in excellent locations, in both growing and established neighbourhoods. And we watched our dream of developing multi-family buildings come to life.
Kelly Fry Team – A full-service investment real estate team whose members are actively investing themselves locally. The team specializes in the Fraser Valley and focuses on providing well researched education.
Our fantastic sponsors & exhibitors for this event include:
AskanExpert – Get your real estate investment questions answered at www.askanexpert. ca
BCRED – British Columbia’s FREE real estate directory. Add your BC real estate business for free now at www.bcred.ca
Brent Roberts Realty – At Your Service! I make myself available at all times. My web site is here to help you 24 hours a day. You can search listings at your own convenience, browse reports, and read up on real estate info on your own terms. When you are ready to see a listing in person, or just have a simple question, please do not hesitate to contact me!
Fawcett Insurance – Fawcett Insurance began in 1932 in Deep Cove as McClintock Insurance until it was purchased by Wilfred and Marjorie Fawcett in 1969 and then became Fawcett Insurance. In 2000 Jeff and his wife Cindy Lou Fawcett purchased Fawcett Insurance from their parents Wilf & Marj. They continue to support the community in many ways, such as Parkgate Days, Seycove Auction, Northshore Harvest, to name a few.
Hawkeye Wealth Ltd. – Helping individuals secure and grow their wealth by allocating part of their portfolio into private equity real estate. Come learn more how Super Suites generates substantial cashflow, hedges vacancy and tenant risk, and buffers against rising inflation and interest rates through their niche furnished rental model.
Jurock Case Investment Realty (JCIR) – JCIR is a licensed real estate broker owned by Ralph Case & Ozzie Jurock specializing in finding well researched real estate opportunities for a special group of select clients. Formerly called Worldwide Referrals Realty, the new JCIR relies on the expertise of the founders Ralph Case & Ozzie Jurock, who together have been in the real estate business for over 60 years.
Marc Jurock Century 21– Marc and his wife Fion are expert realtors specializing in Richmond – with a special focus on Richmond Centre Brighouse. Fion speaks Mandarin & Cantonese fluently and both have worked with thousands of individual real estate investors helping create profitable futures.
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks – Michael Campbell, Ozzie Jurock, Michael Levy and Victor Adair and guests are now on podcasts every week: https://omny.fm/shows/money-talks-with-michael-campbell
Mogul Realty Group – Edmonton Area Real Estate Team Servicing Home Buyers, Sellers, Investors, and More. We are experts in our industry because we love Real Estate. Our passion fuels our knowledge. We are constantly a step ahead. As Edmonton’s investment Real Estate experts, we designate to educate and engage with upcoming trends and how they might affect our clients and the market as a whole. here in Canada, YOU can find cashflow the shifting market
OzBuzz – Ozzie Jurock’s quirky opinions: What he reads, listens to, things that bug him, interviews of interesting (to him) people, real estate forecasts and LIVE LIFE LARGE wisdoms. It is FREE! Subscribe to the free Hot Properties and OzBuzz at www.jurock.com.
Real Estate Action Group (REAG) – REAG is an inclusive monthly group open to all those who want to create a better life for themselves through real estate investing. The focus is getting into clarity and taking action through an association of dedicated members.
Taylor Steele, Cynthia Aasen, Austin Carroll: Integrated-Equities Inc. – Taylor, Cynthia and Austin help investors add real estate to their financial portfolio. They provide their clients with access to private real estate investments across Canada and the United States. Learn why investors are adding private equity real estate to their portfolio. They will discuss the benefits of private equity, how it could help provide your portfolio diversification, who is eligible to invest and the key characteristics of private equity real estate. They will share how investors are able to participate in multifamily deals using their RRSP’s and TFSA’s.
TienSher Group – We are strong supporters of building homes and spaces where people can thrive in their community. Communities where people can live, work and play, and where they are comfortable to share their uniqueness and diverse backgrounds from whatever corner of the world they came from. Our commitment is to build affordable innovative housing solutions to assist not only first-time home buyers but also to welcome others to move to these communities. We have done more than just build a place to live, we have brought teams together to create a community that everyone can call home.
BUY YOUR DISCOUNT TICKET TODAY – GET 25% OFF. ONLY TIL AUGUST 10.
Go here: landrushcanada.com go to tickets, click on Ozbuzz special.
Please note that any response to any email or any invitation to any meeting is accepted on the understanding that “Jurock Real Estate Insider (JREI)”, “Oz Buzz (OB)”, “JCIR (JC)” as the case may be, are not responsible for any result or results of any action or actions taken in reliance upon any information contained in this posting or meeting, nor for any errors contained therein or presented thereat or omissions in relation thereto.
It is further understood that the said OB or JREI, or JCIR as the case may be, do not, pursuant to this posting, purport to render legal, accounting, tax, financial, planning, or other professional advice. The said OB and JREI and JCIR may or may not own properties discussed at meetings or receive or not receive referral fees at any meeting you may attend as a result of this posting or invitation. The said OB and JREI and JCIR, as the case may be, hereby disclaim all and any, liability to any person, whether a purchaser of any offering, a reader of any offering, or, otherwise, arising in respect of this postings and of the consequences of anything done or purported to be done by any such person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of these postings. If you respond to any posting OB or JREI and JCIR or attend any meeting from and by said companies, we fully expect that you get independent legal/tax/investment/mortgage advice as the case may be.
WANT TO PARTICIPATE?
Go to www.realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory at www.bcred.ca.
OZZIE’S YOUTUBE CHANNEL
You can watch all videos and podcasts on my YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/jurockvideo. It is a great way to check on what I said 10 years ago.
Ozzie, Michael Campbell, Michael Levy and Victor Adair and guests are now on podcasts every week: https://omny.fm/shows/money-talks-with-michael-campbell
Why subscribe if I can just go to the website at Ozbuzz.ca? Hot properties and the latest podcasts are DISTRIBUTED TO SUBSCRIBERS FIRST– posted 2 weeks later on website.
HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?
You can reach me at firstname.lastname@example.org with all of your questions, comments and concerns regarding the Oz Buzz publication.
Please note that any response to any email or any invitation to any meeting is accepted on the understanding that “Jurock Real Estate Insider (JREI)”, “OzBuzz (OB)”, “JCIR (JC)” as the case may be, are not responsible for any result or results of any action or actions taken in reliance upon any information contained in this posting or meeting, nor for any errors contained therein or presented thereat or omissions in relation thereto. It is further understood that the said OB or JREI, or JCIR as the case may be, do not, pursuant to this posting, purport to render legal, accounting, tax, financial, planning, or other professional advice. The said OB and JREI and JCIR may or may not own properties discussed at meetings or receive or not receive referral fees at any meeting you may attend as a result of this posting or invitation. The said OB and JREI and JCIR, as the case may be, hereby disclaim all and any, liability to any person, whether a purchaser of any offering, a reader of any offering, or, otherwise, arising in respect of this postings and of the consequences of anything done or purported to be done by any such person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of these postings. If you respond to any posting OB or JREI and JCIR or attend any meeting from and by said companies, we fully expect that you get independent legal/tax/investment/mortgage advice as the case may be.