November 16, 2022
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS AGENDA IS COVERED BY THE VIDEO OZZIE PUT TOGETHER (ABOVE). SOME OF THESE WERE COVERED IN THE VIDEO OF OCTOBER 4 AND OCTOBER 10 AS WELL AS NOVEMBER 10.
WHAT IS THE OUTCOME FOR INFLATION, RATES?
- LAYOFFS – POINTING TO RECESSION
- BOENGLAND DEBACLE. BOCANADA SCARED? US FED – HINT OF PIVOT
- THE (CRASHING) NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS
- A VERY DETAILED LOOK AT THE ONGOING CRASH IN SOME AREAS
- INTEREST HIGHER, LOWER OR FLAT
- QUESTIONS BLITZ: PRE-SALES, DEVELOPERS, ASSIGNMENTS, CHINA, FOREIGNERS, CANADA AND US DOLLAR, FED, USA, BUYING NOW, MANY MORE
- FLIPPING ACT
- FOREIGN BUYERS ACT
- PERIOD OF REFLECTION FOR BUYERS
- LAND REGISTRATION OF INTEREST ACT BY NOV. 30
For the ‘numbers’ crowd, we left the text of numbers for you to study…here:
The (very good) BC Real Estate association reports continued slowing sales. A total of 5,242 residential unit sales CLOCKED IN in October 2022 a decrease of 45.5 per cent from last October. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $932,979, a 3.1 per cent decrease from $963,011 recorded in October 2021. Total sales dollar volume was $4.9 billion, a 47.2 per cent decline from the same time last year. The best snapshot in BC:
Major Point: Easy to see your area and its relative performance measured against last year.
LOWER MAINLAND INVESTORS Note:
- The high in sales was reached almost everywhere in March 2021 (2021!).
The high in the average price came mostly in Feb (Ma/Apr) 2022 (2022!).
- Prices are quoted in the media as being UP and that is correct if you measure prices of today against prices of October 2021.
But the decline started THIS February as we told you so in our February:
‘THE HIGH IS IN PLACE’ headline
- The price increases over last OCTOBER in Vancouver are 1% in SF and 3% in condominiums. But a drop of 12% and 11% respectively since April (see below)
Major Point: While year over year prices are up a tad (and that is all you see in the media) the price declines THIS year are continuing in all sub-areas every month and that for 6 months! Although NOTE: The average SF home price dropped in August to $1,991,000 but recovered to $2,104,000 in OCTOBER.
For the ‘real market conditions’ we show the last 6 month (first).
For ‘additional review’– as usual (and as we have since 1997) – we report the OCTOBER over OCTOBER results for 4 years further below.
Too many complaints from you guys for picking March 2021 high (1,972) and measure that against current months. Ok, for the purists we take the last 2022 high now. But the all time high versus October 2022 is down 70%. Not much better from this March. Down 55%.
VANCOUVER (4 years)
- Here we are looking at a 4-year OCTOBER over OCTOBER comparison.
- Remember to take the 2020 comparisons with a grain of COVID salt!
SF: REBGV reported SF sales declined a further 47% over OCTOBER 2021. The average price achieved in April of $2,312,000 is down by $245,100 – or 12%!
CONDO: REBGV reports condominium sales are down 45% over OCTOBER 2021 sales. The condominium average price is down by 11% from April.
Major Point: Study the above at the opening comparison of the ‘high in sales’ (usually March 2021) and the high in Vancouver prices (usually February 2022) and note the sharp declines in all sales and continued declines in all prices.
Then note the 4-year comparisons – high in everything for the last 4 years was 2021.
SF home sales continued their sharp downturn (-58%). Prices are much lower. Active SF listings (+47%!) and condominium listings (+54%!) CONTINUE much HIGHER in the last 2 months. Condominium sales cracked as well, down 50%.
Sales down in SF by 58% condominiums by 50%. The numbers tell the story. Look at intro to the numbers and the comparison of February 2022 to OCTOBER 2022, a 24% decline in single family home prices, 17% down in condominiums.
MAJOR, MAJOR POINT: Again, as we said on February 9: THE HIGH IS IN PLACE. For the last 6 months we pointed to a changing market … before the interest rate changes really clocked in and the stock market and crypto crashes. Now, the very (too?) fast increases in rates really starts to bite. We expect that to reach a new plateau (we are close).
(You’ll get Oz Buzz 2 weeks before it’s posted online)
Please note that any response to any email or any invitation to any meeting is accepted on the understanding that “Jurock Real Estate Insider (JREI)”, “OzBuzz (OB)”, “JCIR (JC)” as the case may be, are not responsible for any result or results of any action or actions taken in reliance upon any information contained in this posting or meeting, nor for any errors contained therein or presented thereat or omissions in relation thereto. It is further understood that the said OB or JREI, or JCIR as the case may be, do not, pursuant to this posting, purport to render legal, accounting, tax, financial, planning, or other professional advice. The said OB and JREI and JCIR may or may not own properties discussed at meetings or receive or not receive referral fees at any meeting you may attend as a result of this posting or invitation. The said OB and JREI and JCIR, as the case may be, hereby disclaim all and any, liability to any person, whether a purchaser of any offering, a reader of any offering, or, otherwise, arising in respect of this postings and of the consequences of anything done or purported to be done by any such person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of these postings. If you respond to any posting OB or JREI and JCIR or attend any meeting from and by said companies, we fully expect that you get independent legal/tax/investment/mortgage advice as the case may be.