Oz Buzz #80: Numbers Are Coming In Line – As In Down

LOOK 1:

John Weston is a former Member of Parliament,

a high quality, deeply caring kind of guy

He has a great podcast called “Things that Matter.” He calls it like it is.

Really worth listening to

He hosted a podcast with me. Check it out and tell me your thoughts.

Yes, you are allowed to zap me.

YouTube: https://youtu.be/bWxcj6Pu8Ac

Look 2:

If you missed the WORLD Outlook Conference you can get it here.

14 speakers, plus the mikesmoneytalks gang, including yours truly.

Buy it here: https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/moneytalks-store/

AGENDA

• NUMBERS ARE COMING IN LINE – AS IN DOWN
• TORONTO STILL REPORTS A 4% DECLINE IN THE FACE OF A 25% FACT
• WHAT EXACTLY IS A STINK BID?
• WHAT IS AN OLDFLUENCER?
• QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS
• BEST RATES? 4.6% 5-YEAR TERM IS A GOOD RATE
• A KUDO TO KEEP – BLUSH
• CONDO INVESTORS STEP UP
• TOO OPTIMISTIC?
• MAJOR DEVELOPER IN TROUBLE
• PROTECT YOURSELF FROM ORGANIZED CRIME
• LISTEN TO PODCASTS

INFLUENCERS? NO! OLDFLUENCERS

Saw this on Apple news.

Influencers – millennials? We are bombarded with ‘influencers’ hawking this and that – quite often flagrantly (i.e., movie stars pushing crypto – FTX, a dozen others), but even thousands of ‘influencer millennials’ selling their advisement for their ‘influenced’ to buy.

Major Point: 1. Who will trust another movie star recommending ANYTHING! 2. Who will trust another millennial to buy anything?

Why not? They don’t have any money! What they had came from Mum and Pop bank and it was sank and forgotten in crypto. You need to advertise to the OLDFLUENCERS.

Oldfluencers are a growing number of people over 58 who are down-aging boomers. They are healthier, wealthier, and more influential than any age group that came before them. They have the money, they travel, they buy things and they are down-aging!

BE PROUD TO BE AN OLDFLUENCER. I KNOW I AM!

LIVE LIFE LARGE. LIVE LIFE LARGE.

FAVORITE KUDO

As a blogger I live on the comments of my subscribers. The last 2 issues (December and January) saw 127 comments/questions and a fair number of them kudos.

I love them all – this one I liked best:

MY WIFE OF 40 AND ME OF 60 (I want happy marriage so I need to lie!) were bored and a little blasé at the world outlook conference. Really had heard it all, we knew it all, not interested in real estate. But we stayed for this Ozzie guy. We give him 5 minutes and then head for lunch.

My friend, I could not believe my ears. We were astounded, we were at the edge of our seats (you talk damn fast) we giggled and we burst out loud at your jokes. Man, sorry, we liked your numbers…but we loved your admonition to live life large more. To commit to family and community, to stop bluffing and not to eat kale. In that order. It often seems to us that to mention your family nay commit to it is a dirty word. We apparently bought the last card set of “Grow into your future best” and urge you to reprint. I promise I will buy 20 sets. 

And then we watched your “Live your money” on YouTube. Yep. We are on the same wavelength. Now if I only knew how old you are exactly. I asked and you don’t tell. We will be back in May and would love a meet up. 

CONDO INVESTORS ROCK?!

Note: More than 40 per cent of condos in Ontario are investment properties, with investor ownership in excess of 80 per cent in smaller metropolitan areas such as London, Sarnia and Woodstock.

The numbers come from a new report by the Canadian Housing Statistics Program (CHSP), which shows for the first time the extent of investors’ reach in the country’s largest real estate market, as well as in B.C. and three other provinces.

CHSP’s report shows that investment properties make up 36.2 per cent of condos in B.C.; 36.6 per cent in Nova Scotia; 29.2 per cent in Manitoba and 22.6 per cent in New Brunswick.

Major Point: Some argue if the investors were not there, prices would be lower. I argue if they weren’t, there would be no condos.

QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS

Q: I love your take on China and Russia. Clear, concise, and understandable. You should be on CBC.
A: Ha-ha

Q: You spend too much time on international issues. Most of them will never affect us. Also, we have banned foreigners from buying. Good thing too.
A: I disagree. In this fast-moving world, with instant communications, international issues determine our interest rates, our values and immigration. I wrote last month that I am ONLY CONCERNED with what influences worldwide events could have on North Americans (US and CANADA) and OUR real estate values. Period!

Massive immigration is underway (1.5 million by 2024). And we need it. We are now even seeding up doctor/nurses/other professions qualifications – to speed them into society.

As to foreign buyer ban: It will make minimal impact, just as this has made no impact in the past. Think about it … anyone that has a relative in Canada can buy. At a recent pre-sale in Vancouver Chinese, Indian and Vietnamese buyers dominated. (anecdotal)

Q: We need a forecast on recession/depression in Canada from you. 
A: Read issue 79 – all there. To repeat… Major Point: Everyone should be able to clearly understand what has been happening. The first quarter will make it look worse as all of main street media will now be comparing stats from Feb 2022 to February 2023, which to them, will be an eyepopper. Of course, you, dear readers have been aware of the falling prices for 10 months and sold all your losers.

Q: Thanks for assessment reminder. I didn’t win but liked the understanding I got. I’ll get ready for next year.

Q: I heard you at the conference. You were quite optimistic. I think this time is different. We’ll not get out unharmed. 
A: I also showed this slide. I lived through everyone of these ‘tough times’. I could have added a few more. 9/11 e.g., saw the DOW closed for a week! Every time, I was told it is over. Every time I said…we’ll muddle through. If you are a betting man – looking at this slide – you’d bet we muddle through again. But thankfully YOU get to make the decision for yourself.

Q. Hey Ozzie, as you mentioned, we are trending down. You say, make offers, buy ‘a deal of a lifetime’. What qualifies? … can one even find a ‘deal’ in the current market if we’re heading down, down, down? Love your stuff Oz.
A: Of course, a deal is always personal, but it is not the market as a whole that turns into a deal of a lifetime…it is always a one-on-one deal in a specific neighbourhood between a willing (desperate) owner and willing (not worried) buyer. Remember in life we do not get what we  deserve we get what we negotiate.

Q: I wish you would advise on stocks. The market soared in January and dropped in February. (Lengthy screed follows)
A: I do not advise on anything, I opine! I don’t own stocks. Whatever happens this year, some stocks still remain 50% below last year. In this crazy mad world of February 2023, I repeat from last month:

Primary goal? It is the return OF CAPITAL that you must have in 2023, Not the RETURN ON CAPITAL that you need at this particular time.
Primary goal number 2: Cash is not trash – yet!

SUBSCRIBERS WEIGH IN: THINGS THAT ANNOY ME (Them)

1. Every new car that is advertised show a teaser price. You go to dealer websites, click on “in inventory”…shows price – but in fine print it says: “starting at.” It’s most misleading. It is NOT in inventory. Advertised at $55,000. Ok, I’ll buy it. Sorry, it’ll take a year to special order this one. But I have one here at $72,000.
2. Try to buy cheese. Higher priced cheeses have no price on it, you have to run around with your cheese in you hand to find someone that can look it up. Suffer through rolling eyes to get quoted an insufferable price.
3. Hate self service check out machines. We are trained like monkeys.
4. No price on real estate advertisements.
5. At check out literally forcing you to pack your own groceries.
6. Spam! Hackers! Glad to vote for the death penalty.
7. Telemarketing robots.
8. Everyone that says, “at the end of the day.”

CANADA MORTGAGE BUZZ

Kyle green says: Rates are getting better:

INTERNATIONAL AND USA BUZZ? Go to Issue 79 at ozbuzz.ca

US / CANADA DOLLAR BUZZ

Q: Thanks Ozzie. It was crystal clear to me – I should convert my dollars back. My US $900,000 turned into $1.25 million. And I am getting 6% at the bank ($54,000). A double happy whammy.
A: Not sure where you are getting 6% and at which bank. 1 year term GICs run around 5.2%. But yes, a double benefit. Again, I do not advise – I am just chatting. (Revisit issue 79)

CANADA DOLLAR BUZZ
Q: Canada dollar is tied to oil – a la Ozzie. I say oil will go to $130 dollar a barrel. Your call? Canada dollar going to par?
A: You seem very sure. Good for you. I do not make a call on currencies. I do not advise anything. Just opinioning.

Q: I loved your piece on ‘why real estate prices must and will bottom’. I am battening down the hatches and get my high-water boots for trudging thru the valley. but I also bring my runners to run up the hill when Ozzie says time to buy again.
A: Very poetic. 

Q: I heard you on radio talking about mortgage fraud. You had a way to protect yourself?
A: Indeed: Title insurance companies have apparently lost about $200M since late 2019. Chicago Title Insurance Company has received more than 80 mortgage fraud claims since late 2019  largely from the GTA and Greater Vancouver Area. The other three title insurers shared similar concerns with CBC Toronto — about a growing number of mortgage and title transfer frauds in recent years. Organized crime likes clear title homes and absentee owners.

Ozzie’s solutions:

1. Check your title NOW and THEN
2. If your house is empty (went overseas/ old person goes to old age home, etc. – have someone check it regularly – you need to that anyway or your insurance lapses.)
3. Fraudsters like to work on properties that are free and clear of any mortgages. 
4. A guaranteed way to prevent mortgage fraud from happening – pull the duplicate indefeasible title certificate! Or register a $1 first mortgage.
5. Get title insurance. If you have it…in most of these cases, the real owner and the buyer are protected from most of the losses incurred through the fraud by having title insurance.

Q: I heard about a major developer crash and people losing their deposit in Richmond.
A: The Richmond developer went under last April; (Alderbridge Way LP). The one last week was by Coromandel Properties. It filed for bankruptcy protection.
From the Daily Hive: “…the developer amassed a significant portfolio, with 16 active real estate projects — all located within Vancouver — now in possible risk. Many of these projects are located within the Cambie Street Corridor, including near Oakridge.
The petition, retrieved by Daily Hive Urbanized, states there is a combined total of about $700 million in outstanding debt secured against these projects, with each project subjected to various secured loans registered against the lands. 
The redevelopment potential of these sites could generate a combined total of 2,000 condominium, rental, and social housing units, based on projects with an already identified scope — proposed, planned, approved, and/or under construction.”

Deposits. We covered this last month but, rules on deposits on pre-sales are governed by law and must be paid not to developer but to a law firm in trust. Buyers will most likely get their money back. Question is when.

Q: What exactly is a stink bid?
A: It is so low; you feel embarrassed making it. But if it is the only deal the owner has seen, it is still a welcome ‘first step.’ Learn to:
Always leave a number (low offer) on the table. I taught for years that even in a new pre-sales centre as you leave tell the agent that you would pay ‘xxx’ for it and can close fast. The agent may be outraged and says to you: “no way.” But at the Monday sales meeting the developer rep will ask about ‘traffic’ at the centre and the agent will say…there was an ‘Ozzie nut’ says he would pay a ridiculous xxxx. The developer often will say: “… give me his number”.
You, see, you don’t know what the developer’s issues are. He has to have 60% sales in a pre-sale building and maybe 3 more deals will do before he gets financing. And he just may bend on one or two deals. Price, lower deposit, new car, furniture packages. Why shouldn’t that be you? Always leave a number on the table…at the developer’s office, at the ‘by owner’ home and the competing agent. BUT mean it! A stink bid is one that – if accepted – you will close.

Q: Giggled at stink bids. I would be too scared to offend an owner.
A: Believe me, every owner will rather have a stink bid, than no bid.

From last month’ Oz buzz and the World Outlook conference:

Q: Too many comments and questions on ChatGTP
A: Google it. It has rattled the cages of all thinkers! Watch Ozzie video. No, it’s not all good, but it will change all writing.

Q: I can’t believe the rents you quoted.
A: The stats came from liv.rent (great site)

TOILETS OF THE WORLD

For the artistic behind… 

Or … 

WHEN YOU JUST CANNOT BE ALONE

THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS

While some average price stats show that prices are up a tad, they actually crashed between 15%-30% in the February 2022 – January 2023 time frame. And that in most major cities in Canada and down 26% in most of the USA.

Toronto Market

Reported are (SF -4.1%! Area Code 406/ SF -17% AC 905) 

Ok, you say…you are comparing wrong numbers. No, I compare the highs of 2022 to today. By end of February – everyone will!

BC

In the Ozbuzz.ca blog: 
For ‘additional review’– as usual (and as we have since 1997) – we report the JANUARY 2023 over JANUARY results for 4 years (further below.)

For the ‘real market conditions’ we show the 2022 HIGHEST MONTH (first). 

VANCOUVER (4 years)

Again:

1. Here we are looking at a 4-year JANUARY 2022 over JANUARY 2023/2022/2020 comparison.
2. Remember to take the 2020 comparisons with a grain of COVID salt! 

Snapshot:
SF: REBGV reported SF sales declined a further 52% over JANUARY 2022. The average price high achieved in April of $2,312,000 is down by $403,000 – or 18%! 
CONDO: REBGV reports condominium sales are down 56% over JANUARY 2022 sales. The condominium average price is down by 10% from April 2022.

• Major Point: Note the downturn from the high in the opening. Then note increase in active listings – up 15%/14% for condos and SF. Active listings are way up in VF (condos up 136%!)
• New listings might be down but active listings are way up. If you add them together and compare to 2022 – we are higher.
• Study the above at the opening comparison of the ‘high in sales’ (usually FEB/APRIL ) and the high in Vancouver prices (usually February 2022) and note the sharp declines in all sales and continued declines in all prices.
• Then note the 4-year comparisons – High in everything for the last 4 years was March 2021.

FRASER VALLEY 

SF home sales continued their sharp downturn (-60%). Prices are 30% lower. Active SF listings (+49%!) as well as condominium listings are up a whopping +112%! Condominium sales cracked as well, down 52%. 

The numbers tell the story. Look at intro to the numbers and the comparison of February 2022 to JANUARY 2023, a 30% decline in single family home prices, 16% down in condominiums.

REPEAT FROM OZBUZZ #79:

FIRST QUARTER BAD NEWS 

1. Main Street media will report the Feb 2022 (high) and the Feb 2023, a generally far larger decline than average buyers were expecting. (You, dear reader read it every month!)
2. Psychology will be more negative.
3. More projects will be cancelled or moved forward.
4. Governments – New 3-day cooling period, etc.
5. Active listings are increasing dramatically.
6. Sales down 60%.

MOST Important thing that could be game changers this year? Would change oil, stocks, and real estate? The war ends. (Putin dies?) Until then stay out of Europe. But there are always opportunities.

If it was a hot market last February to spend 1.9 million, it is a scorcher to spend only 1.3 million for the same house!

REMEMBER THIS:

WANT TO PARTICIPATE?

Go to www.realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory at www.bcred.ca.

OZZIE’S YOUTUBE CHANNEL

You can watch all videos and podcasts on my YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/jurockvideo. It is a great way to check on what I said 10 years ago.

Moneytalks Podcast

Ozzie, Michael Campbell, Michael Levy and Victor Adair and guests are now on podcasts every week: https://omny.fm/shows/money-talks-with-michael-campbell (See Victor Adair’s Trading Desk notes! https://victoradair.ca/)

OZBUZZ.CA

Why subscribe if I can just go to the website at Ozbuzz.ca? Hot properties and the latest podcasts are DISTRIBUTED TO SUBSCRIBERS FIRST– posted 2 weeks later on website.

HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?

You can reach me at info@ozbuzz.ca with all of your questions, comments and concerns regarding the Oz Buzz publication.

(You’ll get Oz Buzz 2 weeks before it’s posted online)