THE WORLD, OIL AND US DOLLAR
- Saudi Arabia shocked markets last week by extending a cut of 1 million barrels a day until the end of the year. Its OPEC+ ally Russia followed suit, extending its cut of 300,000 bpd. This threatens an inflationary spike that could disrupt the plans of central banks, to wind down their cycle of interest rate hikes, (including Canada+US).
- The G20 met
Major Point: The world is in flux – it is changing. Continued confusion will bring more people to want to emigrate! Where? To Canada.
OVERHEARD FROM RICK – IT’S NOW 50%!!!
Ace Victoria developer Rick Hoogendoorn warns all sellers/buyers if sold by an offshore seller there is a withholding tax. You knew that? Yeah! But did you know it is often now 50%!
Foreign sellers and non-residents have normally been subject to 25% withholding tax. Now, because of new government regulations and a recent court case, the non-resident buyers’ lawyers are now asking for up to 50% withholding tax(!!) if it’s a capital property (non principal residence).
Reasons Rick: As a result, if you are a non resident seller needing to discharge your mortgage, and you’re only getting 50% of the value of the property sale at the time of closing … because you don’t have a clearance certificate …and you can’t access the money yet …you could be unable to discharge your mortgage on sale and be in breach of contract! The seller can’t close if they can’t discharge the mortgage, and thus can’t deliver clear title to the buyer.
Major Point: More next month – get confusing answers … but agents note and check well before closing.
GST ON PRESALE ASSIGNMENTS
Lucky Toor, CPA, CA email@example.com discussed the intricacies of new GST rules.
I gave him this hypothetical question:
Ozzie: (a) I buy a presale for 1 million to close Jan 1 2025. Before that on Jan 1 2024 I assign the contract to a buyer (not transfer title) for 1.2 million. Do I pay GST on my $200,000 profit?
Lucky Toor: You would charge GST on your assignment fee. So, in this case if the $200,000 includes GST, your assignment fee would be $190,476 plus $9,524 in GST collected. If it doesn’t include, assignment fee should be $200,000 plus $10,000 in GST.
Ozzie: (b) When and how is it paid?)
Lucky Toor: You would have to be GST registered and file your assignment fee as revenue and remit the GST when you file your GST return.
Ozzie: My buyer then assigns on June 1 2024 for 1.4 million. Does he (as a seller) pay GST on his $200,000 profit?
Lucky Toor: Similar to your situation in a), seller would charge an additional assignment fee plus GST. Technically, if this ‘in between buyer’ has intentions of assigning, they should be registered for GST at the time transaction a) occurs so they can claim back the GST paid to the original assignor.
Ozzie: (c) The end buyer closes and title transfers to him.
Lucky Toor: The buyer would be closing with the original developer at $1M plus GST so would pay GST there as well as the GST they pay on the assignment from seller in b).
Between all of the above transactions, GST would have been collected on the assignment fees as well on the original purchase price of $1M.
Where you have to be careful is ensuring you have a proper assignment fee contract to earn your $200K and then charge the associated GST. Many times this contract is missing and there are CRA cases out there where they try to deem GST taxable on the full transactional value at each step so it all comes down to the appropriate documents in place. You have to clearly outline your service provided (i.e.: assignment) and the fee being charged and when it is payable. Your lawyer/notary should be able to assist with clearly outlining this in a separate contract.
Major Point 1: There would be no double taxation – if you prepare properly. Stuart Ross firstname.lastname@example.org adds “Where an Assignment Agreement is entered into on or after May 7, 2022, and the Assignment Agreement indicates in writing that a part of the consideration is attributable to the reimbursement of a deposit paid by the assignor to the builder under the Purchase and Sale Agreement, the amount attributable to the deposit is excluded from the consideration for a taxable assignment sale.”
Major Point 2: Accountant and lawyer that helps:
Lucky Toor, CPA, CA email@example.com
Stuart Ross firstname.lastname@example.org
GOVERNMENT FIXES RATES
We are so dependent on rates. Stocks move like JOJOs…RE markets get busy and then not. It’s crazy! When the economy slows, unemployment rises and employment falls … that’s good for falling rates.
If economy is strong, wages rise etc … interest rats must rise. So, our central bank wants to crash the economy to get lower rates. But will we survive? This week, we, in Canada just stayed put (September 6th) which means our bank expects recession (1st quarter?).
The next major Canadian interest rate decision will be October 25th. (SEE OIL ABOVE)
The next major rate decision in the US Fed will be Sept 20th.
Be very, very careful…WE ARE sitting on a knife’s edge of possible outcomes…and one thing is sure: NO ONE KNOWS…JUST SPEND AN AFTERNOON ON YOUTUBE AND HEAR THE WORLD LEADING MINDS TELL US…
“ON THE ONE HAND THIS…
BUT ON THE OTHER HAND…THAT!”
by Keaton Kirkwood (email@example.com)
Fixed rates – Bond yields set the cost for lenders on fixed rate mortgages. There is a very close correlation between 2–5-year fixed rates and their corresponding 2–5-year bond yields.
Variable rates – The overnight lending rate in Canada sets the stage for how lenders set their prime rate. The BOC meets eight times per year and decides if they increase, decrease, or hold the overnight lending rate. Generally speaking, lenders prime rates will move in direct correlation with the overnight lending rate. Each lender will then offer a discount off of their prime rate (IE Prime minus 0.5%). Borrowers will then have a set discount from the prime rate as its floats up or down. Then there is insurance: Insured Interest Rates The best interest rates available are offered to buyers purchasing under $1,000,000 and putting less than 20% down. These are known as insured mortgages. You pay insurance.) Uninsured Owner-Occupied Rates The next best interest rates are offered to borrowers who are securing mortgages for owner occupied use but are not paying the mortgage insurance. Borrowers who are putting at least 20% down. This band of rates tends to have the largest variance between highs and lows. Rental Property Rates The most expensive category of rates is for borrowers securing financing on rental properties. The mortgages carry the highest risk and cost for lenders which is passed onto the borrower. Renewals For any renewals coming up in the next six months I strongly advise being proactive. Due to the volatility of interest rates, we regularly see lenders issuing noncompetitive renewal offers (often 1% above market rates). This is an important time to get a second opinion on your options. (Ed.note: Good advice!). When can someone put 5% down? One of the most common misconceptions is that someone must be a first-time home buyer to put 5% down. This is not true. We have had clients purchase multiple properties with 5% down. The only requirement for 5% down is that you must purchase the property to live in or as a second home (it cannot be a rental property).* If a purchaser buys a home with 5% down generally, they can rent the property out after 12-24 months and purchase a new home with 5% down. This process can be repeated multiple times as long as each new purchase makes sense to the lender and insurer.
*The minimum down payment is 5% down for the first $500,000 and 10% of the balance up to $999,999. The minimum down payment for rental properties and purchases over $1,000,000 is 20% down.
“I offer my opponents a bargain: If they will stop telling lies about me, I will stop telling the truth about them.” – Adlai Stevenson
COMMENTS ON OZBUZZ
- Of course, Ozzie loves this COMMENT: “Hi Ozzie, I am a long-time subscriber – since Facts by Fax began when I obtained my real estate license with NRS Block Bros in 1991 – And I think you know who the Chairman/CEO was at that time. LOL. I introduced myself to you during one of the great seminars that you put on where you always brought in excellent speakers. It might have been the event with Faith Popcorn in 1992/93?”
- First off, I want to let you know how much I have appreciated your regular market updates and insights into the real estate markets in BC and around the world over the last 30 plus years. You have helped shape who I am as a realtor, and to help me to educate my clients on important economic aspects that affect their real estate investments. I also enjoy your insights on important world events that shape our lives from day to day.
- Waiting for your outright ‘buy’ call – and then pounce…
- Started to think you were biased. Now I know truth – My eyes are open. I am being trained to do without servers. Self service checkouts, no repairmen, no warranty people service (do it yourself). Everyone a case, a number. Very few gas stations left (one in all of the whole Westend), Electricity costs soaring but we are trained to love EVs and all things electric. People from India explain how to do it myself. AI is shoved down our throat to get us used to the new world. Learn or die.
COMMENTS ON MUSIC
1) I have enjoyed all of your musical recommendations over the years. (Ed. note: Here is one!) and I see a similar thread in your musical tastes to mine. (Ed. note: gotta love this guy!)
2) Leave it to the OzBuzz to point out that a German conductor (Klaus Tennsteadt) led the London Philharmonic (Tannhaeuser) and a British conductor Simon Rattle (Lohengrin) led the Berlin Philharmonic Orchestra. Each with absolute brilliance!
Downloaded and admired.
3) Discovered Roeksopp (thru you) – Lovers – shook me – but discovering – What else is there – WOW! I played nothing else but these 2 songs for days.
A SONG THAT RESONATES AND STAYS WITH YOU – I absolutely love it!
Subscriber Dale Sheppard writes…that is why I wanted to send you my latest song, as I thought you might enjoy it. I am a hobby musician, so this is not a plug in anyway, because I am not in this for profit. This purely to share it my music to someone I feel will appreciate it.
“She’s sowing time “is a song I composed from the poem my wife wrote during her journey with cancer in the fall of 2021. In the intro to this video, she writes… “It is the collision of terror and hope that are the force behind “She’s sowing time”. It is the terror that drives, but the hope that saves. That, and the love and strength of my husband who took my words and so brilliantly composed the music to create this song.”
I hope you enjoy the song and video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcAyB9LPz4M
Ozzie: I adore the words and the music!
Q: You recommended Apocalyptica on one of your videos. What kind of a band are they? They look scary.
A: Look scary? What do they sound like? What kind of band? Symphonic neoclassical alternative metal heavy metal. On of my favorites: FAREWELL… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rdr2ZT4kJ2g
Q: Blows me away. What do you not do? 15,000 listeners? But most of your playlist is dead.
A: Actually, it was 15,262. Haha. As I mentioned Spotify took over. All songs eventually can only come through Spotify, YouTube, and Amazon. Blip.fm still exists but it is now run by old fans hanging in there (like me).
Q: Really liked your mega binge recommendations. Loved JUSTIFIED, BEHZAT. Just great. Another?
A: I revisited Billions! 8 years! Whenever Sorkin is involved…a gem!
Q: I miss your zoom meetings.
A: They are now still at Youtube.com/jurockvideo or podcasts at ozbuzz.ca
Q: When is the next Landrush conference?
A: The hotel was under strike threat. We did that once before: Move 600 attendees, 12 speakers and 25 sponsors with 1 week notice to another hotel. Not again. We are postponed to February 2024.
FB FRIEND REQUESTS…AND HACKS
I am on 4 FB sites (Ozzie Jurock, Jurock’s Insider, Real Estate Action Group and Jurock Case Investment Realty – over 12,000 followers/friends). Lots of hackers out there!
- So many people that already are my friends but someone copied or stole their site and they ask for friendship. Be vary careful. When time and I notice it, I email the person and ask. On 3 instances this weekend, the people asked said they were hacked. If YOU are hacked tell your friends!
- Watch out for a copyright infringement hack on your messages. (It is a hack.) Do not click any Facebook messages, Facebook doesn’t send messages only via email.
- Constant stupid 10-year-old HOAXES. For goodness sake stop sending them! Whenever an email says Facebook will charge 4.95 or FB will sell your pictures or ‘put your finger down – copy this text and send to all your friends’…you are being stupid! You are perpetuating idiotic traffic. The usual sure signs of a hoax include poor grammar/punctuation, the instructions to copy and paste to a new post instead of sharing, and that it’s being reported on television.
Hoaxes rely on users not doing their homework and taking posts at face value, which is unfortunately quite effective.
- When not sure check whether you are perpetuating a hoax!
There is also an account how a LinkedIn account was trying to be taken over
Major Point: Don’t click on anything that you don’t understand even of it comes from a friend (could be hacked)
COMMENTS ON IMMIGRATION
Too many to answer. German inward migration policies under Merkel were a total disaster. England and France are embattled. A lot of European nations are under serious strife as their very existence that immigrants say they want…is being destroyed by the values or non-values they bring with them.
Read Douglas Murray “The Strange Death of Europe” and “The Madness of Crowds”.
Immigration? Yes, but with rules on what kind of immigrants.
Q: I PUT THAT SENTENCE ON MY VISOR IN THE CAR. “I say there should be tolerance, but there is a difference between tolerance and endorsement”. RIGHT ON, MAN!
A:Vocal Minorities have been winning all of the battles because the ‘silent majority’ – us – are too busy to fight. Working to paying the taxes, so that they can get the grants to tell us we are wrong.
Q: Lots of pre-sale mortgage questions.
- Q: Closing on one in next 24 month? A: Call Kyle Green’s office and get your rate fixed! Now!
- Q: Looking to steal an assignment. A: Careful. You are not buying a building you are buying the owner. (will he close?). Toronto Pre-sales are stalling.
- Q: Soo many offers : $40,000, down 5% down, should I wait? A: No good offers come because they love you! They offer, to get you to commit. Without their 70% presale, there is no financing.
Q: What to do, what to buy?
A: On our video (above) Ralph says: “These numbers just out:
14% Sales to listing ratio for detached means it will take 7 months to sell inventory.
33% for condos means 3 months. Good time to be a move up buyer into a detached house.
Historically, detached houses appreciate more than townhouses which appreciate more than condos. The reason? Higher component of “Land” and they aren’t making any more of it! Short term prediction: 1) weakness in detached house prices ( deals to be had). 2) strength in condo/townhouse prices. (Good market to move up and/or have a pre-sale deal tied up).
OK, OK, MY REAL NAME IS OSWALD
Shortened by my first boss to Ozzie. Now what does the Oswald Name mean?
Oswald is a boy’s name of British heritage that symbolizes “divine power.” !!!
It is a combination of the Old English words os and weald, meaning “God” and “power,” respectively!!!
The boy’s name Oswald (pronounced OZ-wald), is also of Old German origin, and it’s meaning is “God’s power“!!!
Wikipedia: “Oswald can be shortened to lovable nicknames like Ozzy, Ossy, Oz, and even Waldo!”
Major Point: Why? Just in case you are wondering….
Q: Revenge of the little man. We need leaders! Why don’t you send us what we should support.
A: Yes, we always want someone else to do it. Often because we are already cowed by cancel culture, afraid of their organized attacks. That’s why you must watch/read/support Jordan Pederson, Douglas Murray, and others now! Let’s face it: Are you supporting the posts from the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, Michael Campbell, my posts on Facebook on real estate frauds etc. You are not! It’s pathetic, how few ‘likes’, ‘supporting comments’ etc. the outstanding major brain Michal Campbell gets on Twitter. Everyone loves him, but clicking the support ?
Q: For your ROTLM what don’t you subscribe to anymore?
A: Netflix, Disney. Keeping Amazon prime because it is part of next day delivery (I like). All stream I used to subscribe to that are run by woke orgs. I miss none! Oh, and no more Stella.
Q: CHINA STORIES OUTSTANDING. But does it mean money will stop coming from China?
A: First, no foreigners can (officially) buy real estate in Canada till the end of 2024. Unofficially many buy through relatives, friends, crypto etc. Second, troubles in real estate in China are monumental… MORE MONEY WILL BE LEAVING CHINA – not less!! Scared money will find a way…mostly to Singapore and Australia…but some of it…here.
Q: YES, YES… I COULD NOT WAIT TO MOVE OUT AFTER DECIDING ON DIVORCE.
STUPID MOVE – FINANCIALLY. SHE AND I PAY DOUBLE NOW WHAT WE USED TO PAY WHEN TOGETHER. NOW READING YOUR Q – DEBATING WHETHER AMICABLE STILL APPLIES TO US. CAN WE MEET?
A: Haha – watch my video with Kelly Fry on Airbnb and the importance of “ house rules’….agree to a set of firm rules – discuss everything as if you were renting Airbnb from each other…
TOILETS OF The WORLD
Yes, you could even kiss…
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS
At time of publishing BCREA did not yet report on August results.
Snapshot August 2023 VANCOUVER AND FRASER VALLEY
We told you last year that, as we compare ourselves in 2023 to the same months in 2022, we will look great! The market collapsed last year – now it has recovered? Yes – somewhat.
Note: Vancouver SF homes are up 14% with 597 sales…why?
Because last year in AUGUST we performed at an anaemic 525 sales rate.
In AUGUST 2021 we had 1,107 sales…
New listings higher across the board…but owners rejoice – prices are up also!
NOTE: Vancouver SF new listings are up 17% (Actives still down).
Condo new listings are up 20%.
Fraser Valley SF new listings are up 37, condos up 28%.
Sales of FV – SF homes are still lower than 2021, 2020 or 2019. Sales of condos lower than 2021.
Below we are looking at a 5-year AUGUST 2023 over AUGUST 2022/2021/2019 comparison.
- Major Point: SF sales are up 29% over 2022 (531) Still sharply lower than 2021. (1,050)
New listings are UP 9% in SF homes, UP 20% in condos.
- Vancouver and Fraser Valley all Prices best AUGUST in last 4 years!
- But still behind highest monthly prices achieved in last 4 years (see above)
The Vancouver and Fraser Valley Real Estate Boards have the BEST current statistics.
Get your professional realtor give you the numbers for the sub-area that YOU are interested in.
- Major Point: VF – SF Sales are up 25% over 2022. Still we are 45% lower than 2021 AND 2020/2019.
- New listings – are up 28% in condos; and also up A WHOPPING 37% in SF homes.
Fraser Valley Since March 23 we said every month: “We have started bottom building. Investors…WAKE UP!” You woke up…We are still not back to 2021 volumes but nicely recovering from the doldrums of 2022. Except for the continued interest rate increases… Investors, this is slowly becoming YOUR market!
MAJOR, MAJOR POINT:
Markets are slowing. Brokers talk of rising listings and slowing sales. Presale offers abound: $40,000 savings. 5% / 10% down … free car, pay taxes, pay strata fees for 3 years.
We said new rates will bite. And they are biting. Buy with caution… rising rates are not going away.