Oz Buzz 104: Mike Campbell And Ozzie Go For A Swim – Come Join Us!

February 17, 2025

Polar Bear swimmers are also known affectionately as:

• “Chilly Willies”
• “Numb Noggins”
• “Shrinking Violets”
• “Glacial Gladiators”

Dear Readers,

I thought you might be interested in this (likely) headline from the local Vancouver newspapers

 “Amidst avalanche of complaints, council meets in emergency session to discuss clearing English Bay for Jurock/Campbell plunge.”

Vancouver Mayor, Ken Sim says, “There’s no by-law against an obvious eye sore.”

Jurock responded, “he’s obviously talking about Mike and Gordon.” While Mike, who’s listed in the Guinness Book of Records as the World’s Biggest Cold-Water Wimp, kept asking, “didn’t we do this last week?”

Well, you’ve probably seen the headline, I can’t believe it either, but former

            BC Premier Gordon Campbell, Moneytalks Host Michael Campbell and Moi

are gearing up to take another freezing plunge into the icy waters of English Bay to raise funds for Special Olympics – supporting individuals and families with intellectual disabilities like Down Syndrome, autism, Fragile X, and more.

These are the people far too often overlooked in our communities—but you can help change that by making a donation. Mike has earned the title of the biggest cold-water wimp on the planet—and it’s true! Gord and I don’t love it either, but it’s all worth it to see Mike’s tears, and his skin turning a lovely shade of blue.

Here’s the wishful thinking part – if everyone who follows this blog and listens to Moneytalks were to donate just $25 we’d make a massive difference.

!!You’d get a tax receipt – so for most the net cost would be just $17. To donate go to moneytalksplunge.com – Thank you, our athletes truly deserve it!!

2024 video plunge:  If you missed it … well … here watch it and weep… https://ozbuzz.ca/2024/03/16/oz-buzz-93-20-flipping-tax/

THANK YOU, THANK YOU! The SPECIAL OLYMPICS MONEYTALKS team 2024 thanks our illustrious leader Michael Campbell, brave hearted and injured TROOPER Gordon Campbell, MP John Weston but MOST OF ALL the plungers or donors who took action! THANK YOU…! YOU!!!…WHO DONATED!

Ozzie does Talk, Talk, talk:

Also Ozzie talks ‘shorts’ – 2 minutes each on:

• Procrastination
• Personal Pillars
• One Per Cent Doubt
• Motion begets emotion
• If you do not look after your body, where are you going to live
• Commit Perform Measure
• You can have anything
• Yesterday’s Dreams
• Truths

Where? youtube.com/@jurockvideo/shorts

(Each video is also available AS A PODCAST on
Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Pocketcast and many others!)
See ozbuzz.ca/category/podcasts/

AGENDA

• MIKE CAMPBELL AND OZZIE GO FOR A SWIM – COME JOIN US!
• PRESALE SLOW DOWN. WHERE ARE THE BUYERS? FOCUS!
• NOT TO BE MISSED SHORT VIDEOS (SUBSCRIBE AND LIKE)
• 2025 JANUARY NUMBERS
• MUNICPAL COSTS BLOW YOU AWAY
• QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
• INVESTORS MUST DO
• WHAT TO BUY AND WHAT NOT TO
• CANADIAN DOLLAR
• REMAX SAYS STRESS TEST HAS OUTLIVED ITS USEFULLNESS
• TORONTO FOCUS. 28 YEAR LOW IN PRESALES. CRASH?
• INFLATION

QUICK NEWS:

! REMAX SAYS “…that the OSFI stress test has outlived its usefulness and is unnecessarily inhibiting capable, entry-level purchasers.”

! CANADA HOME BUILDERS’ ASSOCIATION ASTOUNDS
Recent study shows that beyond mortgage qualification challenges, development charges have reached record highs in cities like Toronto.

The study found that development…

• costs per low-rise unit in Toronto rose to $189,325 in 2022 – an increase of 21 per cent over 2020 levels.
• Hamilton, with the second-highest Muni charge per unit of $61,431, was up a substantial 49 per cent over 2020 levels,
• Vancouver at $61,414, up 29 per cent.
• Ottawa rose 11 per cent to $46,320,
• Calgary jumped 15 per cent climbing to $42,800.
• Halifax  much lower at $9,629, but still up 41 per cent from 2020, when it was $6,823. 

Major Point: And it’s getting worse.

QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS

AGAIN!!! There were a lot of explicit political comments. I have again taken poetic license and NOT featured them or removed them from otherwise acceptable texts. While I am at it. I also deleted over 400 people that used my page to post their poisonous views. I will continue to do that. Unfortunately when you have a lot of followers, I get a lot of spam/fakes.

1. I liked your item on the US dollar winnings. First time I saw this. Makes sense. If you have your money in Canadian dollars, you have more of them earning income! 
2. Don’t love your beautifuls, but I do love you. (Haha)
3. Your recommendation on love and the “they don’t say it back” comment.  Keep saying it, it does work. Just don’t let her read the Ozbuzz. 
4. Please more time on the dollar, real estate sales and prices. Don’t need the rest. (My blog has more real estate stats (real) covering a good period of time, than most others. All free.“The rest” I enjoy doing. My good.)
5. Your item on the US interest rates was an eye opener. The average rate is over 7%!
6. Do a special edition when Buffet goes back into real estate and invests his cash.
7. I share your view on unemployment. Scarier than mortgage rates. 
8. Ok, now I am scared too. I saw the Generation Squeeze website and Trudeau’s flirt with the home equity tax people. 
9. You blow me away. You say over 200,000 visitors in December and then you list actually 248,000 PLUS 29,000 EMAILS. Joined BCRED.ca, Ozbuzz.ca, and realestatetalks.ca

! QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS

(So many, too many, sorry. Go to youtube.com/jurockvideo for more answers)

Q: Your comment on having a 70% marginal tax rate (aka Fraser Institute) blew my mind. Why does no one talk about that? 
A: Listen to Moneytalks podcast here – every week Michael talks about it: mikesmoneytalks.ca. 

Q: In your speech at World Outlook Conference you mentioned a foreclosure list. Where to find it? 
A: Go check issue Oz buzz #103 at ozbuzz.ca. Under Q&A.

Q: I liked your videos on worldwide real estate. Have you been personally in all these countries. 
A: Yes, but I did not and will not buy real estate other than Canada and the US. 

Q: Years ago in Fact by Fax, you insisted on not buying real estate in a quarters hare, Phase II at Whistler and hotel condos. Not right on Phase II, doing well.
A: Doing well? Not as good as Phase I – no comparison. And quarter share and hotel condos almost all turned into a disaster. Facts by Fax? (Pre year 2000). 

Q: Saw you first time at the World Outlook conference. Man, you are a blast! Where else do you talk?
A: Thank you (I think). Talk? Everywhere I can. Love the sound of my own voice. Haha. Most are private corporate engagements. Next Keynote at “Verico Mortgage EXPO” on March 11, and “Home Life Sales Rally” April 14. I also do ChatGPT zoom meets (not free) .

Q: Please send more operas my way. Really love Parcival. Why don’t we see more Wagner? Why never Parcival?
A: Richard Wagner’s opera Parsifal has been in Canadian opera houses once in Toronto and three times in Montreal, totaling 14 performances. The Canadian Opera Company presented Parsifal at the Four Seasons Centre for the Performing Arts in Toronto on September 1, 2022. operabase.com youtube.com/watch?v=zyodILZEQFg

Q: Your card set “Growing into my future best”. How can I get it? 
A: We thought we were sold out. We found a box of 124 sets. You can order them at  commitperformmeasure.com. Best thing I ever did. Now I am making each card into a “YouTube short” youtube.com/@jurockvideo/shorts. All comments welcome.

Q: I liked the Röyksopp “What else is there”. But I prefer the MORTEMIA version.
A: The tastes of all music are personal. I like the Mortemia version also. youtube.com/watch?v=r9e_0wubtgk . Actually Röyksopp did it first in 2005. And just again recently, live in Athens. open.spotify.com

=======================================

THE NUMBERS

TORONTO 

The Toronto condo market is currently facing a crunch. A substantial decline in pre-construction condo sales, reaching a 28-year low with an over 80% drop from the previous year. Every city struggles with high mortgage costs, slower rent increases, and decreased investor interest. Look up presale post this issue. But in TO there is some thing else: An oversupply issue, an unprecedented backlog, with nearly 40,000 condo units across various stages — new developments, assignments, and resales — currently unsold. Units too small, sold at too much of a price. Now turned into a clear buyers market.

Snapshot:

All Sales? Down -8%. New listings up 49%. Active listings went up a whopping 70%. 

Pre-sales? Dramatic declines, Developers in serious trouble, new presales dead. One TO lawyer calls it a Shi* Storm! (On YouTube).

Insult to injury? The City of Toronto’s 2025 passed a property tax hike of 6.9%

Tarion has a lot of new measures (controversial)! Purchasers of new freehold homes are required to notify Tarion within 45 days of signing. This aims to identify and prevent illegal building activities. There is a lot more. Google Tarion new measures.

Major Point: Average SF home price in area code 416, still $400,000 behind all time high of April 2022.

BRITISH COLUMBIA – A better start… 

Source: BCREA

VANCOUVER AND FRASER VALLEY

VANCOUVER 

December was better, yes … but. In fact, in DECEMBER 2024 we sold 383 SF homes. In 2021 we sold 750, in 2020 we sold 1,032.

1. We use the rolling 12 months between DEC 31 – DEC 31 the following year. Eyepopper!

Vancouver INCREDIBLE 12 mos. RUNNING TOTAL (SF) – 50%
DEC 31, 2020 – DEC 31 2021  sales 14,161
DEC 31, 2023 – DEC 31 2024   sales  7,562

Let’s keep looking at JANUARY 2025 comparison to the ALL-TIME HIGHS ACHIEVED:
(Comparing different months is only meaningful if you want to know ABSOLUTE HIGHS)

FRASER VALLEY INCREDIBLE 12 mos. RUNNING TOTAL (SF)
DEC 31, 2020 – DEC 31 2021  sales 11,913
DEC 31, 2023 – DEC 31 2024   sales  5,477

Major Point: Dramatic 4-year snapshot on crashing sales (SF DOWN NEAR 60% OVER 2020/2021). But very steady prices in both condo and SF sectors.

2. VANCOUVER JANUARY 2025

HIGHEST PAST MONTHLY PRICE AND SALES COMPARED TO DECEMBER 2024. 

3. VANCOUVER SF and condos

Sales UP! Prices about even. At least this JANUARY over last JANUARY. Down sharply from June 2024.  Well below the 10-year average. 

VANCOUVER: Here is a 5-year month of JAN 2025 over the month of JAN 2024/2023/2022/2021 comparison.

Major Point:
V  Condo – New Listings were up 48% y-o-y  in JANUARY! Up from 899 in December! SF Sales. Better than 2023 but sharply below 2022 and 2021 (-50%). Down from 496 sales in December!

NOTE: Better y-o-y! BUT sales SF and CONDO sales down from October. SF October-724, Condos-1,396.

FRASER VALLEY: Here is a 5-year JAN 2025 over JAN 2024/2023/2022/2021 comparison.

Major Point: FV – SF  Active listings were up 04% in November, up 21 % in January
FV – Condo  Active Listings  were up 20% in November, up 47% in January
FV – SF New listings were up 13% in November, up 26% in January!!!
FV – Condo  New Listings were up 09% in November, up 56% in January. 
Note: FV – SF price readjusted to normal. Last month jump/an aberration – as we thought.

Presales in Vancouver: Where are the buyers? Why?

Discussed the pre-condo market with development marketing ACE Pete Ryznar (Ryznar Media) who sees a better February but reported that January 2025 recorded the lowest new home sales in Metro Vancouver in over 10 years!

Plus:

• Standing Condo Inventory: Currently there are 1,600 complete and unsold units in Metro Vancouver!
• Lack of Urgency in the Market. Opportunity- Developers are MOTIVATED!
• Price Gap Too Large: The gap between pre-sale and resale prices. Buyers can get larger, slightly older units and save over $200/sqft, plus avoid paying GST!
• Investor Sentiment has shifted: Many investors have faced financial losses in recent completions while the government continues to villainize them.
• Tying up capital for extended periods is no longer attractive.

Why 2025 may be a good time to buy a presale:

• Compelling Incentives: From 5% deposits to $500K in upgrades (Curv).
• Price reductions will be offered to clear standing inventory.
• A surplus of assignments and receivership inventory.
• Interest rates on the decline: Lower rates may boost buyer confidence
• Short-term Rental product: Sells at low prices due to the STR ban.
• Future Supply Shortage: Standing inventory+new projects are converted to rental, reducing supply.  More projects will be paused for failing to meet the 65% financing quota.

OFFICE VACANCY RATE NOW OVER 9.8% AND RISING (COLLIERS)

Over the past five years, Greater Vancouver’s office vacancy rate has tripled, rising from about 3% in Q1 2020 to over 9% in Q4 2024. This trend has created favorable conditions for tenants, especially in Class B and C buildings, which had an average vacancy rate of 12.8% in 2024, compared to about 8% for newer Class AAA buildings.

MAJOR, MAJOR POINT: As always, we say that there is no best deal market, there are only best deals that you negotiate! And in 2025 you CAN negotiate. 

Investors! This is YOUR negotiators’ market. 

To start get your MUST DO list – CONTINUED FROM Ozbuzz 102

• Get on all foreclosure lists Nationally!
• Get on all assignment lists (Incl. Craigslist, Kijiji, MARKETING FIRMS)
• Make offers – lots of offers…stink bids…
• Get on all pre-sale invitation lists.
• READ docs! Depreciation report / Insurance deductible
• Covert your SF home (in BC) to a sixplex? Only if you analyze a) do I lose my capital gain exemption? What are the municipal details? Watch Ozzie’s all 3 videos with Bill Laidler: youtube.com/jurockvideo

Finally, I have never heard people say “I paid too much but at least I bought it in a good market.” A good market for the seller, yes, but buyers want fear, bad news, foreclosures. And that is what we have in 2025!

So, INVESTORS learn some new concepts:

• Stink bids.
• Get a good realtor that understands the concept.
• Buy Transit Oriented Developments
• Make offers, make offers.
• Keep your eye on a specific market segment.
• Look for troubled owners.
• Sit in the local court to learn the foreclosure process. 
• Buy your own house ‘if you fall in love’ and want to stay there.
• But as investment only buy a ‘deal of a lifetime’

(You’ll get Oz Buzz 2 weeks before it’s posted online)

WANT TO PARTICIPATE?

Go to realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory at bcred.ca

OZZIE’S YOUTUBE CHANNEL

You can watch all videos and podcasts on my YouTube channel at youtube.com/jurockvideo. It is a great way to check on what I said 10 years ago.

Moneytalks Podcast

Ozzie, Michael Campbell, Michael Levy and Victor Adair and guests are now on podcasts every week: mikesmoneytalks.ca/category/mikes-content/complete-show/ (See Victor Adair’s Trading Desk notes! victoradair.ca)

OZBUZZ.CA

Why subscribe if I can just go to the website at ozbuzz.ca? Hot properties and the latest podcasts are DISTRIBUTED TO SUBSCRIBERS FIRST– posted 2 weeks later on website.

HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?

You can reach me at info@ozbuzz.ca with all of your questions, comments and concerns regarding the Oz Buzz publication.