COMMENTS
More comments on crypto and so many comments on CLOs (Ozbuzz, you were right), questions (who is Popper?), opinions on cash on hand, finger waving. It’s getting too much. Please comment, appreciate or opinionate but have questions limited to real estate type questions.
Also:
I am flooded with texts and FB messages, Emails: “Ozzie, watch this, I’d like to know what you think”. No description, purpose etc. Know this: Ozzie does not watch anything without detailed description of what it is, why you sent it, your view about it.
Also, send emails, don’t text. Everybody uses text. Latest annoying texts are “surveys from city, or governments”. Surveys by whomever you buy from – latest from Audi. I text back ‘send via email’. No response. All surveys that start with ‘Would you recommend this bank, car dealer, etc to friends and others?”. That annoys me even more. The AI (Scotia e.g.) asks whether I will recommend them before anything else … so we can guess their algorithm as to who reads, responds etc, to any serious complaints or compliments you share. Oh, well just don’t get me going. Email me info@ozbuzz.ca, or use my regular email. I have Wechat, Whatsapp, text, 3 emails, FB messages, Instagram messages … all of these I may get to or I may not. But I will answer all emails.
THE BIG COMMENT
I have received dozens of comments on the Victor Adair and my discussion on Moneytalks on the Cowichan decision. Listen to that, ok, but this is an even more MUST READ: “The Carney government joins Eby government in threatening property rights in B.C”.
In a detailed and mind-boggling scary research piece The FRASER INSTITUTE points to this month’s Vancouver Airport deal as an additional step to give away YOUR property rights. Fraser Institute: “… recent agreements between the Carney government and the Musqueam Indian Band might be the final straw on the proverbial camel’s back.” Read it here: fraserinstitute.org/commentary/carney-government-joins-eby-government-threatening-property-rights-bc
QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS
Q: Really liked your slides. So clear and in colour. Keep it up.
A: Thanks for sharing. Unfortunately unless I make a speech with PPT updated numbers for that next issue, it’s just another step in the production of Ozbuzz.
Q: Where do we get your writing on inflation, timing, cycles?
A: Go to last blog (116) and look at the PPT that lists Ozzie principles (find outlines on all of the above plus the milestone ‘trends’). Or buy Ozzie’s various books here: ozbuzz.ca/shop (even by the case – for the ‘so-inclined).
Q: Your January piece on Blue Owl and Blackstone was a forecasting masterpiece. I can’t believe it. I showed it to my financial advisor. He said who is Ozzie Jurock? Well I guess he knows now.
A: Blush. You are very kind but incorrect. Yes, we reported The Blue Owl and several other rotten deals. But it was Blackrock and I quoted Gundlach. However, I have warned for 2 years about being in any fund (even MICs) where the assets are not easy to liquidate. Because in a panic or near panic I felt (feel): “INVESTORS PANIC. BIG BOYS WANT THEIR MONEY BACK. If they can’t: RESULT: CASCADE OF SELLING”. It also was not the January Ozbuzz but last November in Ozbuzz 113. We also warned, discussed and warned about CLOs and compared them to MBS.
That is what is happening NOW. Private Equity this week reportedly was not just some outlier outfits. No the big boys ARE AT IT (IN IT) AGAIN! Can you say: Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, BOC. Several Reginal banks. Morgan Stanley halting redemptions? Huh? Reporting that redemptions are up to 14 per cent. Investors get capped. Can’t get out. Actually ‘Alternate asset managers’ like Blue Owl, several others… stocks now down 42 percent!
I am no expert in stocks … but I look where money that goes into stocks comes from (a real estate investor?) and what economic environment we are in. Well, here goes:
US, THE WORLD, CANADA AND US IN IT
- Ozbuzz opines: We always believed in the US dollar. It will continue to soar. Reserve currency etc. Plus Europe, the whole EU in panic. ‘Safe haven’ asset.
- Higher inflation, sticky inflation? Could be, but Stagflation more likely. Why? War longer than indicated, oil prices, everything in massive inflation – because of supply shocks.
- Recession. Yes, we are in it.
- Massive job declines (we have talked at length about massive white-collar layoffs). Fewer new jobs offered.
- CUSMA /Tariffs continuing to create uncertainty. Disposible income declining
- Savings very low.
- AI crash danger. More and more like a .com kind of crash (read Ozbuzz 111 – 116). Huge investments into NEW Apps, that make no profit. Just like – even more so – than .com massive crash.
- US GDP now was down to .7 as opposed to be 1.5%, unemployment rising, Eyebrow raiser. Canada unemployment almost 7%, no new jobs.
- Interest rates were to be cut 3 times in US, we think now there will be only one, or NONE.
Major Point: Opinions … not predictions of possible outcomes.
Q: Loved your piece on Timing. I am guilty of quoting your book “location, location” and not the key ‘FORGET about location’ title.
A: As I pointed to in the last issue: It’s easy to be a hero or a fool in the right location but at the wrong time! But – if you quote me at all – much appreciated.
Q: Your short videos on Youtube. Brilliant. Can you send me all of them?
A: Based on the ‘Grow Into Your Future Best Self” card set (Artwork by famed German artist Roland Schicht) the short videos are 50 in total. Subscribe/view/download at youtube.com/jurockvideo and get the newest ones alerted to.
Q: I disagree with your-over 70 you must be 50% in cash’. That’s too much. You must have your money in investments and get income?
A: I didn’t say put the money in the backyard hole. But have liquidity. Idealy you have every increasing monthly cash (likely from real estate holding in markets like Alta/Florida etc).
Q: Old, old books, music that no one listens too, no useful advice, and now astrology?
A: Why stay a subscriber? Suffering as you do? Let me help your suffering…
Q: I put your Saturn and Mercury piece into ChatGPT together with my birthday and I could not believe what it said. Look at this. (attachment not shown)
A: Yes, ChatGPT is getting better and better… glad you liked it. For myself…when I was working for several years in Taiwan, I learned much about Chinese Zodiacs, western horoscopes and had a personal Chinese horoscope history and outlook done. I’m not promoting a belief system, but ALL came true. ALL!
Q: I was born January 21, 1954. DO I belong to the previous year or the calendar year or the Chinese new year?
A: If you were born in January/February BEFORE the New Chinese New Year starts your sign goes into the previous calendar year. I.e. If the Chinese New Year started Feb 15 2020 – everything until Feb 15 2021 would belong to the Calendar year animal of 2020 … NOT 2021.
Q: I find it loathsome that Conservatives cross the floor. It’s despicable. Resign – if you must – and sit as independent, but cross the floor? You are a liar!
A: Could not agree with you more. They were elected from a conservative viewpoint. To cross the floor is despicable. Particularly now. Conservatives in BC are not much better. Here they had someone that brought them from the unelected wilderness to near victory … but no, we got to get rid of him. Just when NDP’s numbers slip. This infighting (I want my style of conservatism) has has kept them in opposition for years…
Q: Your stance on gambling is right on! We are on the way to get more people in debt wondering what happened!
A: It’s a lot worse than that. Not just debt, but addiction. It is beyond me, how we as a city can vote against becoming Vegas North several times (see last issue) and totally under the radar we approved a massive ‘gambling is good’ attack. Gambling is NOT good, whether in your casino (but at least you know where you are) or your crypto gamble. We are now bombarded on every sports event with enticing gambling offers. Our SM abounds in get rich quick Bitcoin. Asking why? Government needs the taxes, the only despicable reason.
NEWS – TIDBITS
National office housing starts down
Office construction in Canada ended 2025 at its lowest level since 2004, according to CBRE Ltd. “This is a new annual low for the country,” CBRE reported. “Outside of Toronto, no meaningful product is being built downtown. The focus instead is on the suburbs and at very conservative levels with no more than three projects underway in each city.”
Bright side: 69.4 per cent of space under construction is spoken for. This is not all bad news, however, as CBRE said most space delivered last year did not have tenants waiting to move in.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.’s spring housing supply report.
Rentals drove overall new housing supply in Canada last year, with the number of rental units under construction nearly doubling the 10-year average. Rental starts hit record highs in Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, Halifax and Montreal. Toronto was the lone exception, as housing starts fell below the historical average and reached the lowest per-capita level among Canada’s seven largest regions.
Major Point 1: The trend led to increased vacancy rates and slower rent price rises compared with recent years.
Major Point 2: As I pointed out on the Moneytalks show March 14, these stats are misleading. Yes, rental construction – in some markets – doubled. BUT as many as 60% of those rental buildings were converted from planned condo construction. In two years when they were supposed to be available to buy, they won’t be.
DEAD HORSE Again? OK, BUT FIX YOUR SPEC/VACANCY TAX FORMS – NOW!
March 31 must fill out speculation tax in BC: Spec tax is 3% for foreigners,1 % for BC resident plus – yes PLUS Vancouver vacant home tax 3% and your vacant 2 million (average price) house costs a tax of $120,000, if you declare. If you do not submit the declaration, the government could assess the tax at the maximum rate (even if you would have been exempt).
Even if your home is your principal residence or rented out, you still must file the declaration every year. If you don’t have to pay but are late – can still cost $250 dollar. Look it up here: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/taxes/speculation-vacancy-tax/
CANADA OUTLOOK
A two-sided market
- Weak: investor condos, assignment market, expensive move-up detached.Resilient: family rentals, entry-level freehold in good locations, secondary suites, student/medical-worker rentals.
- Construction REMAINS in danger Demand keeps softening + costs stay high + approvals slow: Builders pause, starts fall
- 2-3 years later you get a supply crunch again
Investors note (Just our opinion):
If this is the environment, the “winning” bias is:
1) Cash-flow first, appreciation second
Focus on properties (with good Property Management) that survive higher vacancy/softer rents. (Alta, Florida)
2) Avoid fragile buyer segments
Be cautious on small (est) condos with heavy investor competition.
3) Target “need-to-rent” demand
Near hospitals, universities, trades/industrial nodes, transit.
4) Stress-test your deal and its mortgages hard
Assume: renewal shock + a few months vacancy + repairs.
5) Keep dry powder
The best deals show up when confidence is low and sellers are tired.
6) Study previous Ozbuzz recommendations on how to find stink bid offers
7) Stink bids: The next big opportunity usually comes from three specific seller types:
- Pre-sale investors who cannot close
- Airbnb STR investors losing cash flow
- Developers holding unsold inventory
Those sellers often accept the “stink bids”.
8) The Pattern Investors See:
A downturn typically unfolds like this:
- Sales volume collapses
- Inventory rises
- Condos weaken
- Developers stop building
- Prices finally fall – That sequence can take 12–36 months.
- NEW RUMOUR – APPRAISERS WILL ADD A LAND CLAIMS CLAUSE TO ANY APPRAISAL IN BC.
MORE INVESTOR TODOS BELOW…. MAJOR, MAJOR POINTS
Best suburbs, 5 cities to buy, investor and stinkbid suggested guidance. Scroll down!
HOT PROPERTIES
- Richard Morrison has a new Burnaby listing 1,100 sq feet, 2 bedrooms. Great price, got it at $670K for 1000 sq ft.
- Belvedere high rise condo collapse listed all 44 left over units under $725 per foot – new concrete Highrise.
- Pete Ryznar creates a new Sunshine Valley package 11,000 sq foot lot 3 bed 2 baths cottage for under $500,000. Show home ready – 2-hour drive. Go to: buysunshinevalley.com
- Yaletown sub-penthouse, 3 BR, 2 baths, solarium rented at $5,400 per month. Reduced $1,175,000. Sq ft; 1,150
For contact info: Write to info@ozbuzz.ca and put in the subject: DOAL
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