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Christmas special for the grand Landrush 2019 Conference– save $150
TechTip – convert files to .mp3 the easy way
2 new podcasts
Questions on interest rates, moving downtown, pot growing, recession 2020
The National Canadian Numbers
Rents tied to unit or tenant?
Your body is the temple of your mind
YOUR BODY IS THE TEMPLE OF YOUR MIND
We spend all of our time exercising, treadmilling, eating the right things, fretting about sugar, worrying about our body shape. We spend very little time/often no time on growing/exercising/appreciating our minds!
We pretend to understand the “Law of Attraction”, we quote “Positive Thinking”, we spend no time in preparing our minds to get ready to attract. If you believe that what we think about comes about, then we have to start with the “Law of Deliberate Creation”– setting out deliberately and clearly what we want to attract into our lives. We have to work on understanding that “The price of success is belief” and that we have to train our minds to have no doubt that it can create any desired outcome. An exercise program for the body is a) a decision, b) daily work and c) a certain amount of “constant spaced repetition”. Exercise for the mind is the same. It takes a) a decision: I will spend an hour a day, b) repeat every day c) apply the ‘laws. Yeah, but Ozzie. Once I understand it, why repeat it? You understand that you want to be clean. But you need a shower every day to stay that way.
NEW PODCASTS – People journey into success. Charan Sethiimmigrated to Canada, worked as a machinist and reinvented himself as a realtor, builder, and now as an award-winning community developer. He is the founder of TienSher Group of Companies tiensher.ca. He works with his two sons and their motto is “We may be in the bricks and mortar industry, but our business is about people, first and foremost.” Charan chats about the future of Transit Oriented Developments in general and in Surrey specifically.
Painless dentistry – Our guest is Dr. Mike Racich– Vancouver BC dentist, lecturer and author. His latest book is ‘The Basic Rules of Being A Dental Patient’. Mike talks about professionalism and most importantly, what to, where and how to find the right healthcare providers. The goal: live our lives to the fullest. As Mike likes to say, “My glass is always half full … except when I am on vacation!”.
See ozbuzz.ca for more Ozzie Jurock columns and interviews
QUESTION & ANSWER
Q. If interest rates go from 5% to 6% that’s not really a big deal is it? A. Well, all increases affect business and consumers. But, you’re quite right, when rates go from 1% to 2% (100% increase in interest) it has a major impact on the economy. Why? Well, since corporations and individuals have created large debts (currently there is $1.3 TRILLION in leveraged loans) it doubles the rate of interest. If rates however go from 5% to 6%, the impact is not nearly as dramatic on the general economy (25% increase in interest) – however it affects individual buyers very much indeed.
Q. You used to write about moving out of town?
A. Yes, people wanted to move out of town and some still do. But there are a lot that are coming back. What they really wanted was to see the cows, not smell them! And where is my sushi? Now, there is a move back to the city (cities):
–Millennials want to be close to bars, restaurants, they want to save – no cars, public transport okay.
–Upscale people care for where rather than what the condo is… Buy an address – close to restaurants etc. (i.e. Yaletown) – small in town is ok, large suburb is not.
–Suburbs still attract families with kids. Major Point: Marketers: Understand where your target audience wants to be!
Q. I thought growing pot is now legal, how can I prevent my tenant from growing it? A. Just forbid it in writing (check out Oz Buzz #8). Strata buildings forbid smoking now, same with smoking, growing pot. But: PUT IT IN WRITING!
Q: You scared me with the ‘City is planning to tie rents to the unit’ rather than the tenant. Where can I go fight this? A: Relax. It was only a possible task force recommendation. In the final analysis they backed off this. However, they did bring in 23 new recommendations. In No.10 it states: Maintain rent tied to the renter, not the unit! An interesting new one is No. 9: Increase the availability of currently empty strata housingby eliminating a strata corporation’s ability to ban owners from renting their own strata units.
Major Point: What developers dreaded was NOT recommended (No.10). A new one to overrule Strata Corps is now recommended (some stratas do not allow rentals).
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS
Summary of ACTIVE Listings:
Major Point: The worst sales month of November since 2008(!) in Vancouver! In fact, sales clocked in at 35% below the sales average of the last 10-year period. In the Fraser Valley we saw a 181 percent increase in active condo listings: Abbotsford saw 296%, Langley 390%! Look at new listings in the Fraser Valley too. They are usually slowing into December but many areas are increasing its new listings into late November. Sellers come to market. That will continue.
But note: Condo prices still up. In fact prices on average are doing ok. However, we do not live in the average. Go to your local board and check prices (average prices) posted there. For instance, average House prices on the west side are down 22%, other areas between 5% – 9%.
Major Point: As a buyer: Rejoice … realtors have time, multiple offers are dead, and owners look at offers! As the owner: Forget the 42% sales downturn! 58% of all houses are selling! Act to get your sale into that 58%! How?Look at 21 ways to make your home sell faster. Free at www.jurock.com Investor: Remember Warren Buffet: ‘When everyone is crying you should be buying…’ Nothing wrong with checking out that ‘deal of a lifetime’ and making ‘stink bids’.
For the big pocket book. EDMONTON: 28 units-below market price, off market deal $103,000/unit, 60% 2 bedrooms, turn key management, no capital work needed, newer roofs, mechanical, interiors. On the new LRT in Edmonton. Price: $2.895 Million
For the small pocket book. Cranbrook: top floor 1 BRM unit conveniently located near local amenities and attractions. Walking distance to college, hospital, all the arenas, grocery stores, dog park, schools, water park and more! #214 has seen some updating including new carpet a few months ago. Woodland Court has an inviting community feel within the shared courtyard, heat is INCLUDED in the strata fees of $237.54. Rentals allowed. 1 cat or 1 dog allowed (size restriction).
The BOC left interest rates unchanged on December 5th. This is the third time in the last 18 months where they said one thing, indicated another, and then did a third thing. In April 2017, they announced that the rate was reached. Two months later in July of 2017 they increased the rate and did it again four times in a row. Two months ago, they wanted to get to the neutral rate of 3.5%. On December 5ththey would now announce a neutral range (as opposed to a neutral rate) of 2.5-3.5%. What gives?
Major Point: The reality is that our economy is not doing as well as expected. Consumer spending and housing represents 2/3rds of Canada’s GDP and they are both down and will continue to go down next year. Why? 80% of the global economy is heading down, which means our commodity-based economy will also be hurt. So even though the BOC and United States want to get to 3.5-4%, they have taken a breather and become more ‘dovish’. We expect the US to raise in December but slow next year.
WHY CAN THEY DO THAT? BECAUSE WE LET THEM.
Banks grab another early Christmas present. In 2016, when the mortgage stress test was announced, I said that banks got an early Christmas present. I mused further that you’re now stuck to each bank (very difficult to change) and all fringe lenders would be knocked out. That has to a large degree happened. So, the banks got fatter! Profits soared! In the last month our bond rate (to which long term mortgage rates are tied) have dropped by .8% – however the banks have not passed on these savings to the consumer and have been reaping the benefits since January – for the wrong reason! Why can they do that? Because we let them!
I’ve received a number of questions on my comment that there may be a recession in 2020. What would cause it? Without a lengthy diatribe, I direct you to the comments on QE vs QT, which I have discussed in the past. Under QT some $4.5trillion would be taken out of the US balance sheet (likely over 7 years). Well, it’s no longer ideal speculation, the Fed has already taken $450 billion off its balance sheet last year. Further, the ECB announced it would stop adding QE into its markets. Both actions will create a lack of liquidity, a continued volatility in the stock market and is the harbinger of a recession. It’s by no means guaranteed but with the current turmoil, the action of the BOC and the Fed on interest rates make the likelihood higher.
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WANT TO PARTICIPATE?
Go to www.realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998! BCRED.CA. If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory at www.bcred.ca. Jurock.com sees 31,000 unique visitors every month…a lot of them look for their professional here. SIGN UP…!
OZZIE’S YOUTUBE CHANNEL
Watch his new video on Ozzie’s Picks – Oliver, Pemberton and Victoria here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyejcpi0Ecw and you can subscribe to his channel and see all his videos, including selected bits of the fabulous Michael Campbell show and the “Blast of the Pasts” – watch what Ozzie said in 2010 on BCTV and more.
Ozzie is on air with Michael Campbell every Saturday sometime between 8:30AM – 10 AM. The Hot Property that we discuss there, is available by subscribing to the Ozzie Dispatch at Jurock.com.
I will grow into my future best and live life large!Look up and buy(!) all of Ozzie’s “Grow into your future best” cards at: www.commitperformmeasure.com
ACT NOW!We have 52 sets left– if you want to own these fabulously designed by famous German Artist Roland Schicht, you have to act now
I wish you and yours a very Merry Christmas, a happy Holiday season, and the year 2019 to be one of wonder, excitement, success and above all good health!
Live Life Large
Oz Buzz Podcast
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