May 2, 2021
“Was just on BNN where I was admonished for not advocating the spending splurge in the Canadian federal budget. Imagine adding as much debt to finance social spending programs in a six-year span (~C$700 bln) as in the prior 152 years combined.” –David Rosenberg
INFLATION OR DEFLATION? THE DEFINITIVE ANSWER!
WHAT OZZIE SAID 20/10/5/2/1 YEARS AGO
WHAT OZZIE SAYS NOW
QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS – COMMENTS
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS – APRIL 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018
YES, SALES ARE UP 350% OVER COVID 2020, BUT ALSO WAY UP OVER 2018
FRASER VALLEY REAL ESTATE A HIT AGAIN
SURREY SF PRICE STILL UP 26%!
REVENGE OF THE LITTLE PEOPLE
A YOUTUBE ENTERPRISE EXAMINED
INTEREST RATES HEADING UP OR NOT?
PRE-SALES ROCKING AND ROLLING
BYING INDUSTRIAL OR RESIDENTIAL
ARCHEGOS AND THE MOVIE
INFLATION OR DEFLATION?
JREI has held the multi year position (in World Outlook Conference speeches since 2002). Here are just 2 of my slides from Michael Campbell World Outlook Financial Conference of 2010!
I have forecast massive inflation for years at every conference. At every Landrush conference I urged you to buy real estate because “we live in the most unreported inflation of all time.”
Go to www.Ozbuzz.ca look up OzBuzz 39 and read my dissertation.
From my 1998 book:
“FORGET ABOUT LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION”
I talk about a 23,000 percent return on your DP from 1960 to 1998: I said …’if this continues, you need to be on the ‘conveyor belt’. The projection to 38 years into the future was a house price of $7 million.
In my 2010 Book “What, When, Where and How to buy real estate in Canada”, I modified the forecast to $6.7 million by 2040. Well, in 2017 the Westside of Vancouver clocked in at $4.4 million!
Major Point, Major Point: Throughout a hundred speeches and 4 books (I published) and 6 that I was quoted in, my 25 years subscription newsletter and dozens of articles in the major newspapers …I steadfastly maintained my view that we live in the most unreported inflation of all time (20 years ago, 10 years ago and every year since). Look at my “Principles series” OzBuzz blog 39 – 42. (Look at the last sentence about …inaction being ‘financially disastrous’.)
NOW – EVERYONE CAN SEE IT. People that preached deflation for years…all of a sudden switch sides! (Actually, that is worrying, ha-ha…)
TO THOSE WH0 SAY INFLATION IS 2%!
Really? Commodity prices over last year…
Lumber: +265% WTI Crude: +210% Gasoline: +182% Brent Crude +163% Heating Oil: +107% Corn: +84% Copper: +83% Soybeans: +72% Silver: +65% Sugar: +59% Cotton: +54% Platinum: +52% Natural Gas: +43% Palladium: +32% Wheat: +19% Coffee: +13% Gold: +3%
Never mind Bitcoin, Tesla etc.…. and
REAL ESTATE? NATIONALLY IN CANADA: UP 27% . That is on the full price! If you counted the increase in profit measured on an investors’ 20% down payment – 500% and more! If counting profit on the 5% down payment? You work it out!
Q: Looks to me that I should be buying industrial or commercial not residential. They cannot control it. But they can control Residential.
A: If by “they” you mean governments, rest assured they can control everything! Look at Liberals new bill C-10 assaulting our social media and internet legislation.
(Actually, you MUST look and fight it!)
So, they could control industrial real estate too. But you are right, the votes are in residential (as in more tenants). Further to your point the BC government did just today freeze all rent increases till Dec. 31. 2021.
Q: I loved the movie “Margin Call”. Thanks. It really helps to understand why Credit Swiss and Nomura lost so much (Ed.note: Archegos $20 billion crash) and got creamed and some biggest players won – because they were first!
A: Not sure whether they “won”. They perhaps were more ruthless just like the protagonists were in the movie – and thus lost less. The loser is the public. If Archegos can crash like that … what else sleeps there in “derivative land”.
Q: Came to Outlook conferences for years – never believed your inflation scenario. What say you now?
A: You are kidding right?
Q: You have a real estate company. How do I get a hold of you?
A: Yes, Ralph Case and I own a real estate company for some 15 years: Jurock Case Investment realty (www.jcir.ca). We do NOT employ salespeople. We do NOT take listings (but have a number of realtors we recommend!). We handle presales from time to time. Usually only those we invest in ourselves and where we like the developer. And yes, we invite newcomers. The building we helped market this month sold in a day. Next one? Highrise in Surrey this fall. You can get on a registration list with us here: www.jcir.ca
Again: If you are in the industry, in building, selling, marketing, developing lawyering, etc…,etc. list yourself in the FREE BC REAL ESTATE DIRECTORY: WWW.BCRED.CA
- What about rising rates? (many comments). Well, rates rising would be an unexpected Black Swan and slow us down for a time (years). But the outcome eventually will be the same – higher (inflated) prices of hard assets.
- Zoom speeches? I am fully booked till June 3. Thanks. Investment? Look here: https://jurock.com/product/hire-ozzie-jurock-to-speak-at-your-event/
Q: I loved your newspaper headline from 1989: Asia buying up Vancouver! (Came from Michael Geller)
A: Well, this time they cannot blame foreign buyers for increased prices. But in addition to our mad markets…Trudeau promises 1.2 million immigrants in the next 3 years. Wow!
Q: You talk about being a DJ on Internet. I looked at Blip.com. Cannot find you.
A: Sorry, I am at blip.fm – that is why you could not find me. Several of you did…welcome new DJs.
Q: It blows my mind to read that Hungary, China, New Zealand, and others have the same inflation in real estate. How likely is the scenario that you painted?
A: Scenario? What governments could do? They have increased the stress test – effectively June 1. Small impact. Also, this is an election summer. The budget was milk toast, and their actions are minor because they want to win! If the Liberals get back in… THEY WILL ELIMINATE THE CAPITAL GAIN EXEMPTION ON PRIVATE RESIDENCES. It is a fact that CMHC was instructed to enlist UBC to study the implementation. Thus, they may simply say: “any capital gain from anywhere over $200,000 (or so) will be taxed at 50% (more?).
Q: I liked your item on bond rates – still not clear about your view on where the rates will go?
A: It is unlikely (most unlikely) that rates will rise, with the biggest debtor being the government. Also, Powell said so last week…will not be raising rates ever. But there could be tighter qualifications etc…,etc. Plus, BOC slowed down its bond buying. Odds are – low rates to stay. But the Kentucky Derby winner was a 12-1 long shot on May 1. The Black Swan of a sudden higher rate keeps circling.
Q: THERE WERE 21 REPLIES TO MY RANT ABOUT YOU GUYS AND GALS (NOT) PUSHING THE ‘SUBSCRIBE’ BOTTON ON YOUTUBE:
- Podcasts should not be on a video channel.
- You should do more videos with your opinion only.
- I went to your channel at youtube.com/jurockvideo. I must say I was impressed. Your 2011 video on “Vancouver’s wild ride in 2 parts” is really an eyebrow raiser. 9 years ago!
- I was not impressed with your playlists. Too confusing.
- Where is the real estate list?
- You should not ask for supporters. It’s demeaning.
- Answer questions on every video – you get more traction.
- Do not answer questions on askanexpert.ca, answer them on YouTube only.
- Make an OzBuzz video and send it to subscribers only and 2 weeks later post it.
- You need to interact.
- You need consistency – a video every 2nd day same time.
A: Hmm, there were more, but I found these thought provoking. I genuinely thank you. There is no growth without feedback! And yes, ALL feedback is welcome.
My rant was on trying to get you to subscribe on my free YouTube channel. It was not very successful, but I did add 66 new subscribers. Thank you.
Thanks for sharing. It forced me to analyze the channel and review my goals. It is actually amazing what YouTube provides in its analytics section. Well, learning is good. I preached it all my life…even if you do not like what you learned. Ha-ha.
Here is what I learned:
I have had 198,457 views and 244,000 or so impressions. Seems like a lot, but when you consider how long I have been on YouTube…not really. It’s not the number of views but the hours that are watched.
Several videos have a lot of views, but the duration of the view is small. The leader last year was a Real Estate Action Group video which was watched 1,001 hours.
Yet, my subscribers – that click on the button – are 1,220. However, analytics show only 23% of the people that watch my channel are subscribers. 77% or so are just lurkers.
THE MOST WATCHED INTERVIEW
This year’s most watched video was a talk with Victor Adair …Ace day trader with over 1,100 views and 241 hours of viewing times. If interested in stocks and you want a ‘no nonsense’, factual and astounding accurate blog go here:
Victor Adair: Trading Desk Notes: https://victoradair.ca/
REVENGE OF THE LITTLE PEOPLE
Got this comment: I miss your ‘revenge’ items. When I get upset about something taking the little action – even without visible benefit – makes me feel good.
A: I have stopped talking about it, because I received several comments that this encourages cancel culture. Which this was not what it was about. It was about individuals taking individual action against what they actually cannot do anything about. The revenge of the little people means that you are impotent working against Coke, Nike, the government, parking meters, political speech making at sports events, constant TV ads in the middle of a show or whatever and you do a small thing – perhaps only known to you – to “get even”.
Cancel culture takes a mob of people who rightly or wrongly band together to take someone or something down thru vilifying them in public. NOT THE SAME THING.
Interestingly, the Oscars had the fewest viewers ever as an average of 9.8 million viewers tuned in. That is a 58% drop from last year when 23.6 million watched — and that was down from over 58 million a few years back. Maybe the “little people” are tired of seeing their movie stars using the Oscars to rant about their (usually left) views about the world. If I want to see my favorite star win an award, that what I want to see. If I watch a football game, that is what I want to see. I really do not care what their political views are. If I want political positioning…I watch that. But not at the same time. Now – did the little people stop watching the stars – and actually got their revenge?
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS IN CANADA
- National home sales rose 5.2% on a month-over-month (m-o-m) basis in March.
- Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 76.2% year-over-year (y-o-y).
- The number of newly listed properties jumped another 7.5% from February to March.
- The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 3.1% m-o-m and was up 20.1% y-o-y.
- The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price posted a 31.6% y-o-y gain in March.
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS (BCREA)
(BCREA will not report April numbers till about mid month but has the BEST summary of BC communities.)
A total of 15,073 residential unit sales represented an increase of 123.3 per cent over March 2020 and a new all-time record for monthly BC home sales.
The average MLS® residential price in BC was $947,707, a 20.4 per cent increase from $787,032 recorded in March 2020.
Total active residential listings were down 24.4 per cent to 22,337 units in March. The total inventory of homes for sale remains severely depleted, but new listings activity has accelerated in response to high prices.
As we hinted last month, these numbers are still relevant as March 2020 clocked in substantially higher than March 2019. Also, this March clocked in double of the months of March in 2019 and 2018! But from ‘hereon in’ COVID 19 crashed sales until the summer last year. So, comparisons year over year will be less relevant in coming months. But comparisons to previous years will be meaningful still.
BC – MARCH – BCREA: A BOOMING PROVINCE…STILL booming!
VANCOUVER AND FRASER VALLEY/SURREY APRIL 2021, 2020, 2019 and 2,018
NOTE: See above about comparing April 2021 to the “covid – no open houses” April 2020. But do note the comparison to the pre-covid Aprils of 2019 and 2018…IT may not be over 300% but a stunning sales and price increases, nevertheless.
Major Point: Remember that we are comparing ‘boom-time’ to covid ‘no open house’ time. So, take the 352% increases with a large dose of salt. But then note:
SF sales are still up 100% over 2018 and 300% over April 2019! Same in the condo sector: Compared to 2020 up 350% but also UP over 2019 and 2018 in the high percentile area too!
SIGN? Listings in SF home sector up first time in a year. Also, SF listings are up 700 or so units over March. Anecdotally, markets are slowing…not yet visibly in the numbers.
NOTE: Realtors talk say fewer multiple offers, far fewer showings, and hard time to get financing. We see more signs. When vendors realize that markets slow, we will get a flood of listings. Interesting times ahead.
THE FRASER VALLEY
Fraser Valley sales in total? UP 340%! Prices? +35%! Active listings? +-0%!
As we predicted…values grow where people go, and people go where the jobs are…like in Surrey. Our RE company (JCIR) helped market a 140-unit presale building in Surrey and it sold out in just over an hour! Fraser Valley real estate hit of 340 percent increases in sales and a 35% increase in price with zero increases in listings will also go down in the annals of a superlative market. BUT like in Vancouver the comparison does no hold water. It does however show a 100 plus percent increase over 2019 and 2018. So, yes, covid notwithstanding it was an outstanding April indeed.
Major Point: Sales were down 300 units over March. LISTINGS at 1,036 units higher than March.
CITY OF SURREY COMBINED – SF house Prices still up 26% and condo prices up 11%!!!
Major Point: SF sales up 354% (meaningless) BUT also over 2019 over 240% and condos up 85%! Prices up for SF??? UP 26%!!! Prices up for condos?? UP 11%!!!
This is the area where Jurock Case Investment Realty is delivering 50 condo new homes that were sold 2 years ago? Oh, happy times!! Also, Whalley is the area where we are helping to launch a new pre-sale building this month. For info: email@example.com
Impact of a green economy. Michael discusses James Thorne and the MASSIVE INFATION AND COMMODITY BOOM AHEAD.
Michael Campbell: Moneytalks: The Irony – The “Green” Economy Will Be Commodity Intensive
LIVE LIFE LARGE
Truthful people have better
Awareness of truth
I strive for truth in all things.
I weed out liars, I weed out phonies.
I look for long-term relationships.
With truthful personal pillars
I will grow into my future best.
WANT TO PARTICIPATE?
Go to www.realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory at www.bcred.ca.
OZZIE’S YOUTUBE CHANNEL
You can watch all videos and podcasts on my YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/jurockvideo. It is a great way to check on what I said 10 years ago.
Ozzie is on air with Michael Campbell on the fabulous MONEYTALKS every Saturday sometime between 8:30AM – 10 AM. The radio station is CKNW and the best way to listen to it is WHEREEVER YOU ARE IN THE WORLD, just visit www.cknw.com at 8:30 am every Saturday (PST), click on live and you’re good to go. The Hot Property that we discuss there, is available by subscribing to the Oz Buzz Dispatch at Jurock.com
Why subscribe if I can just go to the website at Ozbuzz.ca? Hot properties and the latest podcasts are DISTRIBUTED TO SUBSCRIBERS FIRST– posted 2 weeks later on website.
HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?
You can reach me at firstname.lastname@example.org with all of your questions, comments and concerns regarding the Oz Buzz publication.