Oz Buzz #95: New Capital Gains Highlight Discussion

May 20, 2024

“A bank is a place that will lend you money if you can prove that you don’t need it.” – Bob Hope

Latest videos and podcast: COMING to Youtube.com/jurockvideo

May 25 – A detailed discussion on the June 30 implementation of new construction law imposed by the BC Province on all Municipalities. Bill 44 and the sleeper killer Bill 16 explained. Ozzie chats with Bill Laidler: “3 Steps to Developing a Profitable Multiplex.”

May 28 – Ozzie launches a new “Real Estate Action Now” video series.

The above videos will also be available as podcasts here:
Listen to Ozzie’s Podcast on OZCAST at www.ozbuzz.ca
Also on Apple cast, Amazon video, Spotify.

AGENDA

• NEW CAPITAL GAINS HIGHLIGHT DISCUSSION
• THE NON-TAX ALBERTA- WHAT BC PAYS AND ALBERTANS DON’T
• FOCUS ON CALGARY AND EDMONTON PRICES AND NUMBERS
• THE LM NUMBERS
• RBC SEES INTEREST CUT 8 TIMES!
• WHAT ‘OLD AGE’?
• ECONOMY – INTEREST RATES
• QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS
• OIL PRICES, CANADA DOLLAR

Please subscribe and you will get the free vlog when it is written. Wait and come back to ozbuzz.ca it takes a week or so to be there.
Ozbuzz 95 … will be featured here May 28.

COMMENT:

By far the most popular email was my response to “I feel old.” In particular the quote by Bugs Bunny’s famous: “Ahhh shut up!!!” (Oz Buzz 94)

In particular when my response to the whole question with ‘60 is the new 40’ was very popular. Also that a lot of innovations came from people after 60! People even quoted samples… The best one was a purportedly 78-year-old that just got married to a 46-year-old lady. Said: “When I asked my gal … she thought about it for 1 minute or less and said yes! She followed up with: ‘You and I are already spending more time together doing things enjoying our time together…than I did with my first husband of 19 years’.”

Haha … there was also some detail that made me blush … but the upshot was… You are as young as you feel, as excited as the things that you do and you know a heck of a lot more than you did between 20 and 40.

Of course, I cannot let this ‘happy to be old’ piece go without the famous quote by Groucho Marx: “Men are as old as the woman they feel.”

CAPITAL GAINS TAX CHANGE

A lot of comments and tons of questions on the pending capital gains tax increase. Remember:

1. It has been proclaimed in the budget, but not law yet.
2. We do not know the details. It is highly confusing.
3. I am not a lawyer or accountant. It is of paramount importance that you take YOUR numbers, YOUR assets, your plans … to YOUR personal tax specialist.

CHANGES AND POSSIBLE ACTIONS (CHECK WITH YOUR PROFESIONAL – THIS IS NOT ADVICE)

In general we discuss 2 changes:

1. Changes for lifetime capital gains rate exemption to up to $1.25 million. Good, eh? No!
   Only APPLIES TO qualified farm and fishing properties as well as qualified eligible small business corporations. Corporations that are holding cos that are passive in nature don’t apply.
   Crucially … it also applies to share sales not asset sales … a lot of business-to-business transactions are asset to asset.
   Won’t be able to claim it – not applicable to the majority of the people. Statements of government are misleading.
2. Main change is in the inclusion rate. It was 50% now it is 66.666%.
   Take $100,000 gain – add 50% of that ($50,000) added to your income. Then you pay your personal tax rate, of that amount.
   New rules raise it from 50% to 66.66%. Again, added to your income…
   a) For individuals holding property personally there is no change for an up to $250,000 gain (stays at 50%).
   Was 50% …before. Now:

• Calculated annually…extra inclusion will be incremental. 
• Only gains over the $250,000 apply the higher tax…first $250,000 stays at 50%.
• NOTE: Government projects people will sell their property before June 25…It counts on it! All the capital gains tax collected will make the government look good before the election. (Why so many listings? This is one reason.)
  But if you sell, you must have the money to pay. Also, what will you do with the money which you had not planned on getting this year. You have a new higher tax cost.
  On big gains – must look at alternate minimum tax…with accountant.b) Corporations and Trusts start the new rate at dollar One. 
  But how it flows through is complicated and varies by each case.

NOTE: Under the new rules you may have a smaller capital dividend that is being paid out. (Increase to capital gain that is taxable, check with accountant.)

Solutions? Personal…

SOLUTIONS? Analyze:

1. Vendor takeback? Likely only valid at personal level, spreads the gain over the course/length of the loan … up to 5 years.
2. Add more people to title:
   Per year basis … tax return share property with your spouse – raises the $250,000 exemption to $500,000. Inclusion at old rates
   Add more owners possible. Daughter? Son? could be third / fourth owner – now have $750,000/$1,000,000 in rates. So, depending on your capital gain amount, just adding a person to title avoids the tax increase and you do not need to see to trigger gain.
3. If your wife and you are already co-owners you have $500,000. If not – why not? Adding children … get along with them?

There may be other solutions, for instance: 

Stuart Ross, Garton & Harris E: sross@gartonandharris.com notes: “The goal here would be to ‘freeze’ capital gains at the 50% inclusion rate prior to June 25, 2024. The ideal way to do this would be to create some sort of an internal transaction to trigger the capital gain.

“For example, if Company A (or individual A) owns a property with an embedded capital gain, and they want to freeze this at 50% including, they could transfer the beneficial interest in the property (not the title in order to avoid PTT) to a newly incorporated Company B. This would trigger the gain and adjust the cost base. The owner would need to pay the taxes on the next year’s tax return, but it would only be at the lower inclusion rate.” 

• There is NO silver bullet.
• But you need to get a plan: Should you sell? Possibly not – MUST sit with your accountant.
• Plan to change co. holdings to a personal level – but may have an actual tax cost now (in next year’s taxes)
• Have it in a personal name – could not be impacted. Small markets with small cap gain hit a lot less.

Older person: If you die and for instance and have 5 properties and have been impacted by deemed disposition, your heirs will be impacted! Make a plan, while you are alive … ha-ha. Helps!

 Finally:

• Owning real estate corporately has a large change.
• Plan to own/move properties to the personal level.
• Own it personally not so much change, depends on the gain amount.

The integration of personal and corporate taxes is now broken.
But it is not law yet – details – to follow…

NO EASY ANSWERS – MUST RUN THE NUMBERS with your professional. 

There is an excellent video on the questions… Go to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9s_sfeEI38
Chris Harrison and Keaton Kirkwood chat in great detail on the possible tax consequences and options.

QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS

Q: Comments on bank calculators misleading. It is with everything nowadays…they lure you in, while knowing what you are asking for but then don’t tell it to you and drag it out and out until in frustration you quit…having given them all sorts of information about you.
A: That’s the secret about ‘clickbait’. YouTube Headline: “Real estate crashes in Vancouver” In colour with exclamation marks…then you watch and watch and they do not tell you anything about the headline but admonish you to keep watching for the ‘secret at the end.’ Then, when you get to the end it says…’No one really knows whether real estate in Vancouver will crash…’
Why do they do it? The longer people watch the garbage talk, the more the YouTube algorithms will think that’s what you want…and…wait for it…send you even more  gaff. You should actively dislike ‘clickbait’ items.

Q: You had a quote several months ago about tolerance yes but endorsement no. I understand the sentiment but must admit that I am at the end of my tolerance too.
A: The paradox of tolerance states that if a society’s practice of tolerance is inclusive of the intolerant, intolerance will ultimately dominate, eliminating the tolerant and the practice of tolerance with them.
That is particularly so in today’s world, where we tolerate students in tents on campus stating openly that they want to kill people, where a small majority use the tolerance and then build ‘woke’ premises on it.
Men are trash, masculinity is patriarchy, family is dead. Traditional values, our longstanding beliefs, customs, and societal norms that have been passed down through generations. Stability, respect for authority, and adherence to established social roles, all that’s in question.
People come from all over the world to North America running away from murderous governments and then force their views, their religion, even their laws on the society that they fled to.
Why can they do this? Because we let them. We are tolerant.

Q: Interestingly, I find you are right. I am a bloody pioneer. I was an early convert and talked dozens of people into getting an EV. I would have been better off waiting.
A: Hey, we NEED the pioneers. They make things happen. Be proud … and share your experience, so we farmers can learn.

MUSIC:
Q: Loved your ‘Absolutely marvellous piano pieces’. Who is Hans Zimmer?
A: Hans Zimmer is a German film score composer and music producer, who has composed music for over 100 films, including Hollywood blockbusters such as the Pirates of the Caribbean series, Gladiator, The Lion King, The Da Vinci Code, Angels & Demons and Sherlock Holmes. The fabulous piece time (see last issue) was the theme for Inception.

Q: Are you seeing the Rolling Stones this summer?
A: Have seen them every time they were in Vancouver for years. Would not miss their – likely last – live performance this July. And I’ll wear my jeans, my leather jacket and white T-shirt.
Rolling Stones big hit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5W4k6vD2WY
‘I can’t get no satisfaction’: The cry of the real estate industry!
Rolling Stones: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlaM9fY9coU
‘Angie’ – With no love in our soul…time to say goodbye.

Q: INTEREST questions abound
A: We said last months: Canada and the US are on divergent paths. For the US will stay higher longer. One reduction July/Sept. Thats it!  RBC agrees and makes a MAJOR STATEMENT.

• For Canada, we now have RBC stating that there will be a 2 full percent reduction by the 3^rd quarter 2025 . (NOTE BELOW IN MAJOR POINT!)
• More importantly we have our banker telling us that all mortgage renewals this year and next will see a likely 60% INCREASE in payments (THIS MEANS PRESSURE TO CUT RATES).
• We have OSFI increasing the reserve requirements to 3.5% from 3%. (THIS IS HUGE – it expects lower rates and makes FEWER LOANS POSSIBLE.)
• We have OSFI fixing the amount an individual can borrow for mortgage at 4.5 times his/her income. $100,000 income means $450,000 limit loan. (NOT IMPORTANT RIGHT NOW, BUT VERY IMPORTANT IF RATES GO DOWN TO 4% AND BELOW!)

Major Point: Since last fall, we felt rates would not come down until June, and then only .25%. We thought reductions in rates could be between .5 and .75 reduction in total for 2024. We now think that we will see .25% in June and more cuts are possible. Our economy is shrinking, our productivity in the tank, and layoffs are mounting … add mortgage renewals, car loan losses and staggering credit card costs. The central bank and other banks seem to prepare for lower rates faster!

New regulations, people qualify less, get longer terms (i.e. 30 years), banks loan less … all seem to be geared to guard against a market crash when rates come down faster. Not if, when!

MAJOR POINT:

RBC ECONOMIST CARRIE FREESTONE SAYS INTEREST RATES DOWN BY 2% IN THIRD QUARTER 2025 AND HOME PRICES UP BY 16% IN 2025. RBC FORECASTS THAT BY THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2025, CUTS TO THE BANK OF CANADA’S RATE WILL BE 2%, COMPARED WITH JUST .75% BY THE FED.

MARKETS CHANGING – LISTINGS UP EVERYWHERE…

Toronto: Huge change … sales down and active listings soaring up by 75%. Rumour is that Realtors are offered 8% commissions on some projects. More than 60 condominium projects are now indefinitely delayed by declining sales. Comprising possibly 21,505 units originally anticipated to enter the market.

LISTINGS UP EVERYWHERE

• Victoria listings top 3000 for the first time since 2018 – up 48%.
• West Van New condo listings up 73%
• Vancouver SF up 75%
• Vancouver condo up 68%
• Vancouver East SF up 84%
• Vancouver East condo up 53%

FV SF Active listings up 45% and New listings up 63%.
FV condos active up 55%. New listings up 70%.

WHY?

• Hundreds of Airbnb buildings hit the market – owners need to get out.
• Capital gains tax. Owners want to close before June 25
• To boot …the buyers are balking at higher prices.

DEFINITELY OPPORTUNITIES FOR BUYERS…

LISTINGS UP EVERYWHERE? NOT IN CALGARY!!! 

• Alberta and in particular Calgary and Edmonton are countertrending the rest of Canada
• At 2,881, Calgary’s number of home sales saw a 7.3% yearly rise.
• Detached home average price increased by 9.1% year-over-year to $796k.
• Semi-detached home average price increased by 16% year-over-year to $697k.
• Townhouse average price increased by 18.1% year-over-year to $472k.
• Condo apartment average price increased by 20.8% year-over-year to $359k.
• Active listings 2023: 4,876; 2024: 2,740 –15.4%

EDMONTON 

3,128 sales in Edmonton’s real estate market during April 2024, showing increases of 54.9% over April 2023. Overall inventory is 20.5% lower than April 2023.

• Detached unit sales totalled 1,858, an increase of 51.4%.
• Semi-detached unit sales increased 61.7% year-over-year.
• Row/Townhouse unit sales also increased 46.4% compared to the previous year.
• Apartment Condominium unit sales also increased 72.5% over April 2023,

Total residential average prices came in at $431,387, a 5.4% increase OVER April 2023.

• Detached homes averaged $529,957, up from the previous year by 5.8%.
• Row/townhouse prices were up 12.5% when compared to April 2023,
• Apartment Condominium average prices hit $200,968, increasing 3.7% higher than the previous year.

Alberta is countertrending in real estate prices. Why? IMMIGRATION AND TAXES!

1. TAXES!

Lowest overall taxes IN Canada
Lowest commercial property TAXES

All these differences make difference of billions… that YOU and I pay for the privilege of being in BC. Alberta’s tax advantage is an estimate of the total additional provincial taxes individuals and businesses would pay if Alberta had the same tax system as other provinces. In Budget 2024, Alberta’s 2024-25 tax advantage was measured at $19 billion.

Alberta’s tax advantage, 2024-25 (billions of dollars)

This comparison includes:

• personal and corporate income tax
• sales tax
• fuel tax.
• provincial carbon charges (excluding output-based pricing systems)
• tobacco tax
• health premium
• payroll tax
• liquor tax and markups.
• land transfer tax.
• other minor taxes

2. IMMIGRATION 
   Almost 70,000 people left B.C. last year — mostly for Alberta. Alberta saw the biggest surge in interprovincial migration in 2023, with more than 55,000 people moving to the province. “This was the largest gain in interprovincial migration nationally since comparable data became available in 1972,” said Statistics Canada.

Low prices

• Lowest overall taxes in Canada
• Lowest commercial property taxes
• No Property Transfer tax
• No sales taxMajor Point: Governments talk affordability… Our real estate would be a lot more affordable without these BC taxes. Oh and some 30% of a condo cost is paid to the municipalities for permits, offsite work etc., etc.

“The first lesson of economics is scarcity: there is never enough of anything to fully satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics.“

APRIL BRITISH COLUMBIA

The British Columbia Real Estate Association reports 7,569 residential unit sales in April 2024, an increase of 1.5 per cent from April 2023. The average MLS^® residential price in BC in April 2024 was up 1.4 per cent at $1 million, compared to an average price of $992,440 in April 2023.

VANCOUVER

SNAPSHOT APRIL  2024 VANCOUVER AND FRASER VALLEY
Again we repeat that, as we compare ourselves in 2024 to the same months in 2023, we will look great! The market collapsed in 2022/2023 – now it has recovered? Well against 2023, yes! BUT NOT AGAINST 2022, 2021 AND 2020. Still well behind the highs achieved.

Vancouver and Fraser Valley

SF sales are still well below the 10-year average for APRIL. We remain way behind in number of properties sold! WAY behind! Look at the past.

Here is a 4-year APRIL   2024 over APRIL   2023/2022/2021/ comparison.
(took covid out)

Major Point: SF sales remain dramatically below 2022 and 2021. Vancouver SF and condo prices below 2023/2022! NOTE! New and active listings SHARPLY higher.

Major Point: Fraser Valley – SF Sales were down by 12% this month. Plus 16% below sales of 2023 (607) AND still 65% lower than 2022 (1,391). 
New listings are up 70% in condos; up 63% in SF homes. Active listings up 45% and 55% respectively! NOTE: Massive increase in new listings.

Growing Surrey Presale inventory

• Concord Piano: 1014 homes
• The Manhattan: 422 homes
• Parksville 96: 404 homes
• Vivere by Solterra: 175 homes
• Juno: 341 homes (60% sold)
• Bosa PKWY: 396 homes (35% sold)
• Allure Skyliving: 375 homes
• Sequoia: 386 (85% sold)

That’s 3500 new presale high-rise homes. Does not include any low-rise product currently selling. Realtors saying market slowdown is dramatic in some areas, but well priced properties still attract buyers. 

Also most cities in BC report shortfall in developer money. Duh!
I.e. Burnaby sees major civic project funding on the line as Burnaby saw $175M shortfall in developer money last year.

MAJOR, MAJOR POINT: The story in APRIL was SLOW DOWN – INCREASE IN PRODUCT. This will continue into May. Key date … June 5. If our bank cuts rates even by only .25% it will/may have a psychological impact on FOMO bringing people back in … if not it will also have a psychological impact … FOMO … running away.

WANT TO PARTICIPATE?

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